Inflation, Unemployment Rate and Global Oil Price, Study of United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10 (2)) ◽  
pp. 145-162
Author(s):  
Saadettin AYDIN
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Oil Price

The Nexus Between Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the United States Unemployment Rate Announcement: An Impulse Response Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 160-168
Author(s):  
Misheck Mutize ◽  
Victor Virimai Mugobo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South African ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
The United States ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
The Us

The study explores the relationship between the unemployment rate in the United States and South Africa’s stock prices from the beginning of 2013 to the last day 2017. The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of the US unemployment rate announcement on the South African financial market. Results of Impulse Response analysis show that there is a very minimal impact from the US unemployment announcement to South Africa’s stock prices which disappears within two days of the announcement. In addition, the Johannesburg stock exchange index marginally responds to own shocks, which marginally fades away within two days. These findings imply that the changes in the US employment policies have a direct ripple effect on the South African macroeconomic environment, its investing public sentiments and corporate confidence on the future prospects of businesses.

scholarly journals “Shale Revolution” in the United States as the Main Driver of the World Oil Market Transformation

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 71-93
Author(s):  
S. A. Zolina ◽  
I. A. Kopytin ◽  
O. B. Reznikova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
The World ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The U.S

In 2018 the United States surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the largest world oil producer. The article focuses on the mechanisms through which the American shale revolution increasingly impacts functioning of the world oil market. The authors show that this impact is translated to the world oil market mainly through the trade and price channels. Lifting the ban on crude oil exports in December 2015 allowed the United States to increase rapidly supply of crude oil to the world oil market, the country’s share in the world crude oil exports reached 4,4% in 2018 and continues to rise. The U.S. share in the world petroleum products exports, on which the American oil sector places the main stake, reached 18%. In parallel with increasing oil production the U.S. considerably shrank crude oil import that forced many oil exporters to reorient to other markets. Due to high elasticity of tight oil production to the oil price increases oil from the U.S. has started to constrain the world oil price from above. According to the majority of authoritative forecasts, oil production in the U.S. will continue to increase at least until 2025. Since 2017 the tendency to the increasing expansion of supermajors into American unconventional oil sector has become noticeable, what will contribute to further strengthening of the U.S. position in the world oil market and accelerate its restructuring.  

Fingerprints of a New Normal Urban Air Quality in S5P TROPOMI Tropospheric NO2 Observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shobha Kondragunta
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
The United States ◽  
Urban Air Quality ◽  
Urban Air ◽  
Nox Emissions ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
New Normal

<p>Most countries around the world took actions to control COVID-19 spread that included social distancing, limiting air and ground travel, closing schools, suspending sports leagues, closing factories etc., leading to  economic shutdown. The reduced traffic and human movement compared to Business as Usual (BAU) scenario was tracked by Apple and Android cellphone use; the data showed substantial reductions in mobility in most metropolitan areas.  We analyzed reductions in on-road mobile NOx emissions from light and heavy duty vehicles in four major metropolitan and one rural areas in the United States that showed a reduction in NOx mobile emissions from 9% to 19% between February and March at the onset of lockdown in the middle of March; between March and April, the mobile NOx emissions dropped further by 8% to 31% when lockdown measures were the most stringiest.  These precipitous drops in NOx emissions correlated well with tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> column amount observed by Sentinel 5 Precursor TROPospheric Ozone Monitoring Instrument (S5P TROPOMI).  Further, the changes in TROPOMI tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> across the continental U.S. between 2020 and 2019 correlated well with changes in on-road NOx emissions (r=0.78) but correlated weakly with changes in emissions from the power plants (r=0.44). These findings confirm that power plants are no longer the major source of NO<sub>2</sub> in the United States. We also examined correlation between increase in unemployment rate between 2020 and 2019 to decrease in tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> amount.  The negative correlation indicates that with increased unemployment rate combined with telework policies across the nation for non-essential workers, the NO<sub>2</sub> values decreased at the rate of 0.8 µmoles/m<sup>2</sup> decrease per unit percentage increase in unemployment rate.  There is a substantial amount of scatter in the data with some cities such as Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston showing no noticeable trend in tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> changes during the time period when unemployment rate increased from 6% to 12%.   We examined the trends in on-road and power plant emissions for five different locations (four urban areas and one rural area) and show that the changes in NOx emissions during the lockdown are detectable in TROPOMI tropNO2 data, the economic indicators are consistent with emissions changes, and the trends reversing with the removal of lockdown measures in the major metro areas have not come back to pre-pandemic levels.  The COVID-19 pandemic experience has provided the scientific community an opportunity to identify emissions reductions scenarios that created a new normal for urban air quality and if the environmental protection agencies should look at this new normal as a guidance for instituting new policies. </p>

Oil price-inflation pass-through in the United States over 1871 to 2018: A wavelet coherency analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 51-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari ◽  
Juncal Cunado ◽  
Abdulnasser Hatemi-J ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Wavelet Coherency

Oil price forecasting using probabilistic projection of the United States dollar

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 411
Author(s):  
Noll Moriarty
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Petroleum Exploration ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Projection

Accurate forecasts for medium-term commodity prices are essential for resource companies committing to large capital expenditures. The inaccuracy of conventional forecasting methods is well known because they tend to be extrapolations of the current price trend. The inevitable reversal catches many by surprise. This paper demonstrates that medium-term (2–5 years) commodity prices are not strongly linked to economic health and commodity demand-supply, but are instead inversely controlled by supply-demand for the United States dollar (USD) and consequent valuation. P90, P50 and P10 projection bounds for future valuation of the USD are presented based on the successful probabilistic techniques of the petroleum exploration industry. This allows probabilistic projections for the oil price, which is inversely related to the USD valuation. I show that the USD is significantly undervalued at present. Probabilistic projection of the USD valuation indicates that likely appreciation will put downward pressure on commodity prices for the next 2–5 years. If the USD premise is correct, likely appreciation of the dollar during the next 2–5 years will hold stable, or even decrease, oil price to around USD $50 BBL. This is a contrary expectation to most forecasts—one which, if it eventuates, should give cause for reflection before committing to large capital expenditures. Further investigation could examine the extent to which the USD valuation can be modelled as a fractal phenomenon. If so, it would mean the USD valuation is not driven by conventional economic fundamentals; instead, it is a semi-random number series with serial correlation. If true, probabilistic forecasts of the USD can be significantly improved, hence that of medium-term commodity prices.

Factors driving oil price —— from the perspective of United States

Energy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 197 ◽  
pp. 117219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Meng Qin ◽  
Ran Tao ◽  
Nicoleta-Claudia Moldovan ◽  
Oana-Ramona Lobonţ
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Oil Price

A Reexamination of the Crude Oil Price-Unemployment Relationship in the United States

1996 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
NOEL D. URI ◽  
ROY BOYD
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price

Section II. Prospects for North America and Japan

1998 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 43-53
Author(s):  
Nigel Pain
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
The Past

Economic activity accelerated sharply in the United States at the beginning of this year. GDP rose by 1¼ per cent in the first quarter, to a level 3.8 per cent higher than a year earlier. This was the fastest quarterly growth for two years. The acceleration in growth was unexpected given that the present cyclical expansion has now lasted for over seven years. Private sector demand is still continuing to be supported by the sustained appreciation in equity prices over the past three years, and the appreciation of the dollar has helped to hold down the inflationary pressures that are being built up as the labour market begins to tighten. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3 per cent in April, the lowest rate since 1970.

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