scholarly journals Analisis Peramalan dan Pengelompokan Jumlah Turis ke Jepang

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 150-167
Author(s):  
Laurence - - ◽  
Devanny Gumulya ◽  
J. Sandra Sembel ◽  
Magdalena Lestari Ginting

Pariwisata merupakan salah satu kontributor penting dalam menunjang perekonomian suatu negara. Penelitian ini menitikberatkan pada kajian kunjungan wisatawan asing ke Jepang dengan mengambil data jumlah wisatawan yang berkunjung dan jumlah pengeluaran wisatawan untuk kategori akomodasi, hiburan, makanan dan minuman, belanja, transportasi, dan lain-lain. Pada studi yang dilakukan sebelumnya tidak terdapat pengelompokan negara untuk berbagai macam pengeluaran ini, sehingga posisi penelitian ini adalah mengisi kekosongan tersebut dengan melakukan pengelompokan negara berdasarkan pengeluaran turis. Selain itu, tujuan studi ini juga membuat model peramalan dengan menggunakan metode ARIMA yang mengakomodasi tren dan musim. Data yang terdiri dari enam jenis pengeluaran direduksi menjadi 2 dengan nilai variansi yang dijelaskan sebesar 83,84%. Hasil pengolahan data menunjukkan 2 kelompok negara turis berdasarkan pengeluarannya. Dua grup tersebut terdiri dari 8 negara anggota OECD dan 12 negara non OECD. Turis yang berasal dari negara yang tergabung dalam OECD memberi memainkan peranan penting dalam perekonomian dunia dengan kontribusi sebesar 50,5 % dari total pengeluaran turis dunia. Kualitas gugus dikategorikan baik dengan rata-rata koefisien siluet dan nilai kohesi 0,56. Pengelompokan ini dapat digunakan sebagai dasar untuk melakukan studi perilaku konsumen setiap negara. Metode peramalan menggunakan ARIMA dapat digunakan dengan memasukan elemen tren dan musim ke dalam model. Nilai R2 pada model peramalan menunjukan hasil yang baik pada sebagian besar data turis dari 20 negara. Model ARIMA musiman ini dapat dipertimbangkan sebagai model untuk meramalkan jumlah turis yang datang.   Kata kunci: Principal component analysis, k-means clustering, nilai silhouette coefficient and cohesion, ARIMA

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 190-199
Author(s):  
Rijalul Fikri ◽  
Aswin Mushardiyanto ◽  
Mochamad Naufal Laudza’Banin ◽  
Kristiana Maureen ◽  
Harry Patria

Berdasarkan dataset tentang informasi kemiskinan kabupaten/kota tahun 2020 yang dikeluarkan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia, dipilih variabel bebas sebanyak dua puluh variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Kemudian dilakukan uji korelasi antar variabel bebas tersebut dan diketahui terdapat variabel yang berkorelasi dikategorikan berkorelasi sangat tinggi, dengan nilai korelasi sebesar 0,921 (Persentase Penduduk Miskin - P1 (Poverty Gap Index)) dan 0,964 (P1 (Poverty Gap Index) - P2 (Proverty Severity Index)). Variabel yang memiliki korelasi sangat tinggi jika digunakan akan menyebabkan terjadinya multikolinearitas, sehingga opsi untuk menghilangkan multikolinearitas adalah dengan menggunakan Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Dengan menggunakan Proporsi Kumulatif Varians dan minimum persentase keragaman data sebesar 80% maka didapatkan output berupa dimensi data baru PCA sebanyak tiga dimensi data atau tiga variabel bebas baru. Dengan menggunakan variabel input baru berupa PCA 0, PCA 1 dan PCA 2 dilakukanlah penentuan jumlah cluster dengan metode Silhouette Coefficient dan analisa clustering menggunakan metode K-Means didapatkanlah empat kelompok/cluster, dengan jumlah anggota cluster 1 sebanyak 117 Kabupaten/Kota, cluster 2 sebanyak 154 Kabupaten/Kota, cluster 3 sebanyak 173 Kabupaten/Kota dan cluster 4 sebanyak 70 Kabupaten/Kota.


VASA ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 333-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirchberger ◽  
Finger ◽  
Müller-Bühl

Background: The Intermittent Claudication Questionnaire (ICQ) is a short questionnaire for the assessment of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with intermittent claudication (IC). The objective of this study was to translate the ICQ into German and to investigate the psychometric properties of the German ICQ version in patients with IC. Patients and methods: The original English version was translated using a forward-backward method. The resulting German version was reviewed by the author of the original version and an experienced clinician. Finally, it was tested for clarity with 5 German patients with IC. A sample of 81 patients were administered the German ICQ. The sample consisted of 58.0 % male patients with a median age of 71 years and a median IC duration of 36 months. Test of feasibility included completeness of questionnaires, completion time, and ratings of clarity, length and relevance. Reliability was assessed through a retest in 13 patients at 14 days, and analysis of Cronbach’s alpha for internal consistency. Construct validity was investigated using principal component analysis. Concurrent validity was assessed by correlating the ICQ scores with the Short Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) as well as clinical measures. Results: The ICQ was completely filled in by 73 subjects (90.1 %) with an average completion time of 6.3 minutes. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient reached 0.75. Intra-class correlation for test-retest reliability was r = 0.88. Principal component analysis resulted in a 3 factor solution. The first factor explained 51.5 of the total variation and all items had loadings of at least 0.65 on it. The ICQ was significantly associated with the SF-36 and treadmill-walking distances whereas no association was found for resting ABPI. Conclusions: The German version of the ICQ demonstrated good feasibility, satisfactory reliability and good validity. Responsiveness should be investigated in further validation studies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
pp. 676-681
Author(s):  
V.V. Sapozhnikova ◽  
◽  
A.L. Bondarenko ◽  

Aim: to determine the association between clinical laboratory parameters, the production of cytokines (IL-17A, -23, -33, -35), and specific IgM and IgG in the serum of patients with Lyme borreliosis without erythema migrans. Patients and Methods: complete blood count, the concentrations of IL-17A, -23, -33, -35, and the levels of specific IgM and IgG were measured during acute infection and convalescence (n=30). The control group included age- and sex-matched healthy individuals (n=30). Statistical analysis was performed using the StatSoft Statistica v 10.0 software (parametric and non-parametric methods and multifactorial analysis, i.e., principal component analysis). Results: most (80%) patients with Lyme borreliosis without erythema migrans are the people of working age. In most patients, the combination of the specific antibodies against Borrelia afzelii and Borrelia garinii (76.7%) and severe intoxication and inflammatory process (100%) were detected. Moderate and severe disease associated with meningism was diagnosed in 90% and 10%, respectively. The mean duration of hectic period was 8.3±1.27 days. Abnormal ECG was reported in 40% of patients, i.e., conduction abnormalities in 20%, sinus bradycardia in 16.7%,and sinus tachycardia in 3.3%. The clinical laboratory signs of hepatitis without jaundice were identified in 26.7%. During treatment, the significant reduction in band and segmented neutrophil counts as well as the significant increase in platelet count were revealed compared to these parameters at admission. Abnormal cytokine levels (i.e., the increase in IL-17A, -23, -33 and the deficiency of IL-35) were detected. Conclusions: multifactorial analysis has demonstrated that the severity of immunological abnormalities in patients with Lyme borreliosis without erythema migrans is associated with fever, cardiac and liver disorders, the high levels of IL-23 and IL-33, and the lack of IL-35 and specific IgM and IgG. KEYWORDS: tick-borne borreliosis, Lyme disease without erythema migrans, clinical laboratory signs, cytokines, specific antibodies, multifactorial analysis, principal component analysis. FOR CITATION: Sapozhnikova V.V., Bondarenko A.L. Multifactorial analysis of clinical laboratory signs, the levels of IL-17A, IL-23, IL-33, IL-35, and specific antibodies in the serum of patients with Lyme borreliosis without erythema migrans. Russian Medical Inquiry. 2020;4(11):676–681. DOI: 10.32364/2587-6821-2020-4-11-676-681.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
pp. 715-723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephany C. de Rezende ◽  
Jo鉶 A. Pinto ◽  
Isabel P. Fernandes ◽  
Fernanda V. Leimann and Maria-Filomena Barreiro

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