scholarly journals ANNUAL FLOOD ANALYSIS OF CISANGGARUNG WATERSHED IN CIREBON REGENCY

Neutron ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-50
Author(s):  
Abdul Muin ◽  
Jantiara Eka Nandiasa
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
West Java ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Flood Analysis ◽  
Pearson Type Iii Distribution ◽  
Rain Data

Cisanggarung River, a river in West Java Province, often experiences flooding. This study aims to discuss the magnitude of annual flood discharge that may occur in the Cisanggarung watershed. Rain data at each station in the Cisanggarung watershed from 2005 to 2017 were analyzed using descriptive-quantitative methods. Return period flood discharge 2, 5, 10, 20, and 50 years were compared to 2-yearly and monthly flood discharge. The results showed that the data followed the Log-Pearson Type III distribution. The return period flood discharge is: Q2= 181.518 m3/s, Q5 = 242.498 m3/s, Q10 = 283.109 m3/s, Q20 = 316.534 m3/s, Q50 = 373.369 m3/s, Q100 = 412.425 m3/s, Q200 = 452.013 m3/s, dan Q1000 = 546.683 m3/s by using the Nakayasu method. Based on the 2 annual maximum daily rains, 2005, 2007, 2009-2010, 2015, 2009-2017 has the potential to flood Q2, 2012 has the potential to flood Q5, and 2017 has the potential to flood Q10. According to maximum 2-daily monthly rainfall, in 2005-2007, January-April and November have the potential to flood Q2. December has the potential to flood Q10. These results are useful for flood control in the region to be more effective and accurate.

scholarly journals Comparative Study of Flood Coincidence Risk in The Mainstream and Its Tributaries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Li ◽  
Shenglian Guo ◽  
Feng Xiong ◽  
Jun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Copula Function ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Joint Distributions ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Von Mises ◽  
Pearson Type Iii Distribution

Abstract The coincidence of floods in the mainstream and its tributaries may lead to a large flooding in the downstream confluence area, and the flood coincidence risk analysis is very important for flood prevention and disaster reduction. In this study, the multiple regression model was used to establish the functional relationship among flood magnitudes in the mainstream and its tributaries. The mixed von Mises distribution and Pearson Type III distribution were selected to fit the probability distribution of the annual maximum flood occurrence dates and magnitudes, respectively. The joint distributions of the annual maximum flood occurrence dates and magnitudes were established using copula function. Fuhe River in the Poyang Lake region was selected as a study case. The joint probability, co-occurrence probability and conditional probability of flood magnitudes were calculated and compared with the simulated results of the observed data. The results show that the selected marginal and joint distributions perform well in simulating the observed flood data. The coincidence probabilities of flood occurrence dates in the upper mainstream and its tributaries mainly occur from May to early July. Among the three coincidence probability calculation methods, the conditional probability is the most consistent with the flood coincidence risk in the mainstream and its tributaries, which is more reliable and rational in practice. The results reflect the actual flood coincidence situation in the Fuhe River basin and can provide technique support for flood control decision-making.

scholarly journals Evaluation of flood risk as a step in determining the “Acceptable Risk” criteria. Case study: Dengkeng River, Klaten, Central Java

2021 ◽  
Vol 894 (1) ◽  
pp. 012045
Author(s):  
A Sarminingsih ◽  
M Hadiwidodo
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Performance Function ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Potential Risks

Abstract The planning of a flood control system in Indonesia is based on the planning criteria issued by the Ministry of Public Works. Flood control planning is based on flood discharge with a specific return period depending on the order of the river and the number of protected populations. Flood events in areas where the flood control system has been planned continue to occur almost every year, meaning that the probability of being exceeded is not as planned. This study is intended to evaluate the criteria for the magnitude of the designed flood discharge in flood control planning that considers the acceptable risk. Potential risks are evaluated against system reliability. The probability of failure of the flood control system occurs if the resistance is smaller than the load expressed as a performance function. By knowing the performance function associated with the level of flood risk, then the flood discharge can be selected with the appropriate return period according to the acceptable risk.

scholarly journals Predictive Performance Analysis of PDF – IDF Model Types Using Rainfall Observations from Fourteen Gauged Stations

2021 ◽  
pp. 125-143
Author(s):  
Ify L. Nwaogazie ◽  
M. G. Sam ◽  
A. O. David
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Specific Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Significant Difference

The design of structures for flood mitigation depends on the adequate estimation of rainfall intensity over a given catchment which is achieved by the rainfall intensity duration frequency modelling. In this study, an extensive comparative analyses were carried out on the predictive performance of three PDF – IDF model types, namely: Gumbel Extreme Value Type 1 (GEVT – 1), Log-Pearson Type 3 (LPT – 3) and Normal Distribution (ND) in 14 selected cities in Southern Nigeria. This is to rank the order of best performance. The principle of general model development was adopted in which rainfall intensities at different durations and specified return periods were used as input data set. This is not same as return period specific model that involves rainfall intensities for various durations and a given return period. The predicted rainfall intensity values with the PDF – IDF model types indicate high goodness of fit (R2) and Mean Squared Errors (MSE) ranging from: (a) R2 = 0.875 – 0.992; MSE = 33.17 – 224.6 for GEVT – 1; (b) R2 = 0.849 – 0.990; MSE = 65.34 – 405.5 for LPT – 3 and (c) R2 = 0.839 – 0.992; MSE = 29.23 – 200.2 for ND. The comparative analysis of all the 42 general models (14 locations versus 3 model types) considered showed that the order of best performance is LPT – 3 1st, GEVT - 1 2nd and ND 3rd for each return period (10, 50 and 100 years). The Kruskal Wallis test of significance indicates that no significant difference exists in the predictive performance of the three General models across the board. This may be due to the fact that the fourteen locations of the study area are bordering with the Atlantic Ocean and seems to have similar climatology. These developed General models are recommended for the computation of intensities in the fourteen locations for the design of flood control structures; and the order of preference should be LPT – 3 > GEVT – 1 > ND.

Recent Analysis of Maximum Rain Period

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2.3) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Fitridawati Soehardi ◽  
Marta Dinata
Keyword(s):  
Flood Control ◽  
Recent Analysis ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Repetition Period ◽  
Calculation Methods ◽  
Observation Station ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Soil Walls ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Pearson Type

Control and Handling of Flood Issues No Regardless of optimum infrastructure availability in flood control efforts such as soil walls, irrigation networks, dams, drainage and others. Planning in the design of water structures for flood control needs to use accurate information and data of the population, such as information on the maximum rainfall data of the area with a certain repetition period, it is necessary to calculate the flood discharge of the plan so that it can calculate the capacity of the dam to be built. This study aims to determine the ratio of maximum rainfall using three calculation methods, namely Iway Kadoya, EJ Gumbel and Log Person III. This research was conducted to get an idea of the maximum rainfall with a return period of 2,5,10,15,20, .... 100 years. The location of this research is conducted in Tualang Subdistrict, the data of the period of maximum rainfall is using the data of rainfall observation station in Tualang Subdistrict. Based on the calculation of rainfall design done can be concluded that the calculation of rainfall design with Iway Kadoya method is greater when compared with Log Pearson Type III and EJ method. Gumbel.   

Best-fit probability distribution model for predicting annual maximum rainfall of Pusa (Bihar)

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (01) ◽  
pp. 100-104
Author(s):  
J. Kumar ◽  
R. Suresh ◽  
Jyoti .
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Type Iii ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Annual Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Pearson Type Iii Distribution

In present study an attempt has been made to evaluate the suitable probability distribution models for predicting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7-days annual maximum rainfall amounts based on 39 years (1964 to 2002) daily rainfall data. Three probability distribution models namely: Log Normal distribution, Log Pearson Type-III distribution and Gumbel distribution models were considered to evaluate their goodness of fit. The Weibull’s method was used for computation of observed rainfall values at1, 5, 20, 30, 50, 95 and 99 percent probability levels. The Log Pearson type –III distribution was found suitable for 1 and 2 days maximum annual rainfall, while Gumbel distribution was found to be the best for predicting 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7- days annual maximum rainfall amounts. The relationships between annual maximum rainfall and return periods were also developed. The non – linear relationships (i.e. logarithmic) were found to be most suitable for all the cases.

scholarly journals KAJIAN PERENCANAAN CHECKDAM KALI NGASINAN KANAN DESA NOTOREJO KECAMATAN GONDANG KABUPATEN TULUNGAGUNG

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Nasirudin ◽  
Sigit Winarto ◽  
Sudjati Sudjati
Keyword(s):  
Flood Control ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Sediment Concentration ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Discharge Plan ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Bridge Structures ◽  
Upstream Part ◽  
Agricultural Areas ◽  
The Village

ABSTRACT Checkdam is a controlling building created because of the flow of water with a large enough sediment concentration, where the sediment comes from soil erosion in the upstream part of the river, to find out the analysis of hydrology, regarding its rainfall, analyze the flood discharge. With the form of a checkpoint in the village of Notorejo, it can prevent and reduce disasters due to the flow of sediments that are formulated in such a way that the river concerned can function normally and effectively in terms of two angles, namely flood control and river development. Rainfall based on calculation of log pearson type III on R20 is 100mm, and Flood Debit Plan 167 m3 / dt. The ability of the sediment capacity of 700,692 m3 / dt and the capacity of sediment capacity to remain 525,519. and able to withstand shear force and rolling stability, this discharge plan is useful for reducing sediment that enters the river salts and provides safety of surrounding agricultural areas due to erosion, stabilizes the riverbed, directs river flow and reduces the occurrence of breakdowns in bridge structures along the river flow mate. Keywords: checkdam, hydrology, sediment, flood discharge, stability. 

Le risque d'inondation et son évolution sur la rivière Châteauguay

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
M -C Bouillon ◽  
F P Brissette ◽  
C Marche
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
First Results ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
Pearson Type Iii Distribution

This article presents the first results of a three-year study that aimed at studying, understanding, and characterizing the evolution of flood risk in Quebec. In this study, flood risk is defined as the product of the return period of an event and the damages caused by this event. It is therefore important that both these components of the flood risk be assessed historically. The two components have been evaluated for a 32 km reach of the Châteauguay River located between the Canadian-American border and Ormstown, Quebec. A flood frequency analysis was undertaken on historical flow data for two gauging stations on the river and the data fitted with a log-Pearson type III distribution. The flood risk was then established using a three-step methodology. The first step was to establish flood levels over a range of discharges using a hydraulic model. Then the computed water levels were processed to define the flooded area and determine the property damage. The last step established the global flood risk, taking into account the complete flood distribution function. The results show that over the last 60 years, the global flood risk has increased for all of the study sites along the reach of interest. When the global flood risk is standardized based on population, the evolution of the risk differs greatly between study sites. For one site, the standardized global flood risk has increased by one order of magnitude over the period studied. The results also demonstrate that 75% of the global flood risk is due to floods having a return period of 4 years or less.Key words: flood, risk, damages, numerical modelling, flood forecasting.[Journal translation]

scholarly journals Analysis of Cross-Sectional Capacity of the Jambi River in the Muaro Jambi Temple About Various Times of Flooding Using HEC-RAS Software

2021 ◽  
Vol 004 (02) ◽  
pp. 127-140
Author(s):  
Putri Mayasari ◽  
Freddy Ilfan ◽  
Yasdi Yasdi ◽  
Rimba Rimba
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Unit Hydrograph ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Tourist Attractions ◽  
Type Iii ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Temple Complex ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Synthetic Unit Hydrograph

Jambi River is one of the rivers located in the Muaro Jambi Temple Complex Area, Muaro Jambi Regency, Jambi Province. Muaro Jambi Temple is one of the tourist attractions in Jambi Province. This study aims to find the capacity of Jambi River tested by planned flood discharge utilizing (synthetic unit hydrograph) HSS Nakayasu method for a return period of two, five, ten, twenty-five, fifty and hundred years. HEC-RAS software used to analyse the water level in the Jambi River towards the flood potential that causes the submerging of the Kedaton Temple building. This research used the log Pearson type III method to calculate the planned rain return period and used the Nakayasu synthetic unit method to calculate the planned flood discharge. The analysis showed that the Jambi River could not load the flood discharge in the five, ten, twenty-five, fifty, and one hundred years return period at several measurement points: river sta-1, river sta-2 and river sta-5. The floodwater level did not cause the Kedaton Temple building to be flooded from the simulation result

ASSESSMENT HARMONIZATION PROBLEMS OF THE LONG RETURN PERIOD FLOODS ON THE DANUBE RIVER

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavla Pekárová ◽  
◽  
Pavol Miklánek ◽  
Veronika Bačová Mitková ◽  
Marcel Garaj ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Type Iii ◽  
The Danube River ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Measured Time ◽  
Design Values ◽  
Pearson Type Iii Distribution

One of the basic problems of the flood hydrology was (and still is) the solution of the relationship between peak discharges of the flood waves and probability of their return period. The assessment of the design values along the Danube channel is more complicated due to application of different estimation methods of design values in particular countries downstream the Danube. Therefore, it is necessary to commence the harmonization of the flood design values assessment methods. All methods of estimating floods with a very long return period are associated with great uncertainties. Determining of the specific value of the 500- or 1000-year floods for engineering practice is extremely complex. Nowadays hydrologists are required to determine not only the specific design value of the flood, but it is also necessary to specify confidence intervals in which the flow of a given 100-, 500-, or 1000-year flood may occur with probability, for example, 90 %. The assessment of the design values Qmax can be done by several methods. In this study we have applied the statistical methods based on the assessment of the distribution function of measured time series of the maximum annual discharge. In order to apply regionalization methods for the estimation of the distribution function in this study we used only one distribution - the Pearson Type III distribution with logarithmic transformation of the data (log Pearson Type III distribution - LP3 distribution). To estimate regional skew coefficient for the Danube River we use 20 Qmax measured time series from water gauges along the Danube River from Germany to Ukraine. We firstly analyzed the occurrence of historic floods in several stations along the Danube River. Then we search relationship between the parameter of skewness of the log Pearson type III distribution function and runoff depth, altitude, or basin area in all 20 water gauge. Skewness coefficients of the LP3 distribution in the stations along the Danube River vary between –0.4 and 0.86.

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