scholarly journals A Study on the Effects of Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate on the Performance of Indonesia Sharia Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erna Garnia ◽  
Tahmat ◽  
Rizal Deden ◽  
Saeful Iman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate

The Effect of Macroeconomic Conditions on the Performance of Vietnamese Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 73-82
Author(s):  
Hien-Ly Pham ◽  
Ching-Chung Lin ◽  
Shih-Ju Chan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Global Supply Chain ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Vietnam plays an important role in the global supply chain. As one of important emerging markets, many studies have focused on Vietnam-related issues. Vietnam established two stock markets in 2000s. The market performance becomes one of interesting issues to explore. This study is to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables, including inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, imports, exports, and gold price, on Ho Chi Minh stock market. The study period is from July 2000 to October 2014. Using the monthly data collected from Vietnam General Statistic Office, IMF International Financial Statistics, and Ho Chi Minh stock exchange, the empirical findings of our regression model show that there exists a positive relationship for imports and gold price, while the relationships for exchange rate and interest rate are negative. No significant relationship has been found for the variables of inflation rate and exports.

scholarly journals Economic Interactions among Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Variables with Mediating Role of Gold Prices Volatilities: An Evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-394
Author(s):  
Rukhsana Rasheed ◽  
Mazhar Nadeem Ishaq ◽  
Rabia Anwar ◽  
Mehwish Shahid
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

In all emerging economies, one of the most challenging issues for investors is the multifaceted inter-relationship between volatility of gold prices and stock market index. During the COVID-19 sub-periods, gold has shown a strong hedging behavior against stock market performance. The main objective of this study was to quantify the long-run relationship among multiple independent macroeconomic variables (predictors) on stock market index (response variable) using the volatilities of gold prices as a mediator factor. This study applied the descriptive statistics, correlation, t-test and OLS multiple regression Model. The specific data comprised of period 2011-2020 regarding the fluctuations in gold prices, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate and performance of stock market index has been utilized. The statistical outputs of models showed that exchange rate (Dollar to PKR) was positively affecting the performance of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)-100 Index, whereas inflation rate and interest rate were negatively affecting the overall performance of KSE100 index. The findings of this study suggested that to achieve better performance of stock market, relatively low interest rate and inflation rate contribute a significant role. However, to increase the generalization capabilities of this study the impact of mentioned macroeconomic variables in other sectors like industrial production, oil & gas and energy sectors with wider time span can be more helpful.

scholarly journals Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Isaac John
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Negative Effect

This paper aims at examining the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning 1981 to 2016.The data were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Four macroeconomic variables, namely: money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate were used as independent variables, while market capitalisation (proxy for stock market performance) was employed as the dependent variable. The results of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test revealed that all the variables studied were stationary at first difference except money supply which was stationary at second difference. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression results showed that money supply has a significant positive effect; interest rate has a significant negative effect; whereas, exchange rate has a positive but not significant effect and inflation rate has a positive but not statistically significant effect on stock market performance. The cointegration test results disclosed that there exist a long-run relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and stock market performance. The Granger Causality test results revealed that a unidirectional causality runs from money supply and exchange rate to stock market performance. In conclusion, money supply and interest rate are the true factors influencing stock market performance in Nigeria because they exhibited a significant effect on stock market performance. Whereas, exchange rate and inflation rate indicated a weak (non-significant) effect on stock market performance. Consequently, the recommendations are: monetary policies that favour the supply of money in the economy should be pursued in order to ensure a better performance of the stock market; Interest rate should be relatively low to guarantee a higher performance of the stock market because high interest rate has a significant negative effect on the Nigerian stock market.

scholarly journals Exploring the Nexus; Stock Market, T. Bills, Inflation, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
pp. 384-389
Author(s):  
Syed Imran Sajjad ◽  
Saleem Ullah Jan . ◽  
Madiha Saddat . ◽  
Ijaz ur Rehman .
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Treasury Bills

The main objective of this study is to examine the relationship between Karachi stock exchange and macroeconomic variables i.e. inflation rate, exchange rate, treasury bills and interest rate. Monthly time series data from January 2005 to December 2010 have been used to investigate the causal association among macroeconomic indicators and Karachi stock market. The co-integration test and Granger Casualty have been applied to drive the short and long-term investigation. The results found bi directional Granger causality among KSE and exchange rate and One way Granger causality exists among KSE and interest rate, no Granger causality found among KSE and inflation rate and KSE and treasury bills. Which means performance of macro-economic variable somehow affects the stock index; moreover, stock prices in Pakistan do not reflect the macro-economic condition of the country. This study emphasizes on the crash of macro-economic indicators on the capital market performance of developing countries. The performance of capital markets of developing countries calculated by these macro-economic indicators.

scholarly journals Do Macroeconomic Variables Affect Stock Market Performance? A Case Study of DSEX and DS30 Index of Dhaka Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 182
Author(s):  
Emran Hasan ◽  
Shahanawaz Sharif
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Treasury Bill ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Stock Market Performance

Stock market performance– being the linchpin of an economy, requires variations in policies concerning macroeconomic variables. Keeping this in notion, this research assays the empirical association between stock market performance and a few selected macroeconomic variables namely interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, and 91-days Treasury bill rate using monthly data ranging from January 2013 to October 2018. Employing Johansen Cointegration analysis, the results of the study suggest that exchange rate and treasury bill rate are positive whereas interest rate and inflation rate are negatively associated with better stock market performance. Granger causality test implies bidirectional causality – between the interest rate and DS30 as well as DSEX while unidirectional causality is evident for both the indices which are running from interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to stock market performance. Formulation and implementation of prudent policies regarding the studied macroeconomic variables can lead to a healthy stock market outcome.

scholarly journals Impacts of Macroeconomy on Stock Market: Evidence from Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 140-146
Author(s):  
Farid Ullah ◽  
Ijaz Hussain ◽  
Abdur Rauf
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Span ◽  
Long Run

Stock market is a place where the securities of listed companies are traded and this can be affected by both macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic factors. The impacts of macroeconomic factors on stock market of Pakistan are investigated in the current study. For this purpose monthly data covering the period from January 2008 to December 2012 is used in this study while taking the three most important macroeconomic variables, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Inflation. Using the more advance Bound Testing Approach, a very strong long run cointegration is found amongst the variables taken for the study. In the long span of time, the results suggest that both Exchange Rate and Interest Rate have negative association with stock market of Pakistan while the Inflation Rate does not create such a condition that affect the stock market of Pakistan. Same results are found for the shorter version of time.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Prices in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Bhim Prasad Panta
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run

Background: Stock market plays a crucial role in the financial system of a country. It can be viewed as a channel through which resources are properly channelized. It enables the governments and industry to raise long-term capital for financing new projects. The stock markets of developing economies are likely to be sensitive to various macro-economic factors such as GDP, imports, exports, exchange rates etc., when there is high demand on financial products, as a constituent of financial market, ultimately stock market needs to develop. Many factors can be a signal to stock market participants to expect a higher or lower return when investing in stock and one of these factors are macroeconomic variables and thus, macro-economic variables tend to effect on stock market development. Objective: This study examines the linkage between stock market prices (NEPSE index) and five macro-economic variables, namely; real GDP, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate using ARDL model and to explain the behavior of the Nepal Stock Exchange Index. Methods: The ECM which is delivered from ARDL model through simple linear transformation to integrate short run adjustments with long run equilibrium without losing long run information. The analysis has been done by using 25 years' annual data from 1994 to 2019. Findings: The result suggests that the fluctuation of Nepse Index in long run is strongly associated with broad money supply, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate. Conclusion: Though Nepalese stock market is in primitive stage, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate are major factors affecting stock market price of Nepal. So, policies and strategies should be made and directed taking these in to consideration. Implication: The findings of research can be helpful to understand the behavior of Nepalese stock market and develop policies for market stabilization.

Interest Rate, Foreign Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Development in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Adedoyin Adebowale ◽  
Akindele Iyiola Akosile
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Market Development ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Stock Market Development

This research investigated the effect of interest rate and foreign exchange rate on stock market development in Nigeria. This research was centered on two research problems. First, it was whether interest rate had a significant effect on stock market development in Nigeria. Second, it was whether foreign exchange rate had a significant impact on stock market development in Nigeria. The scope of the research covered the period from 1981 to 2017. Data for this period were chosen because it covered pre and post-liberalization periods of Nigerian financial system. This research made use of ex post facto research design. Secondary data were sourced from Nigerian Stock Exchange reports, Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins, and National Bureau of Statistics publications. Data were collected on Stock Market Capitalization (SMC), Prime Lending Rate (PLR) and Real Exchange Rate (RER) (Nigerian Naira in relation to American Dollars of the United States). Data analysis was carried out with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Cochrane-Orcutt Iterative techniques. The findings reveal that interest rate has a significant negative effect, and foreign exchange rate has a significant positive effect on Nigerian stock market development during the period covered. It is suggested that monetary authorities should strive to formulate policies that will make interest and foreign exchange rates stable, competitive, and at a level that will stimulate the investment of funds in the stock market.

Macroeconomic Variables and Private Investment: A Two Dimensional Study from Nigeria Economy

2019 ◽  
pp. 20-37
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Private Equity ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Equity Investment ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Real Investment

The study investigated the impact of macroeconomic variables on private investment in Nigeria for the period 1990 to 2016. To achieve these objectives, the study tests for the study modeled private equity and private real investment as the function exchange rate, financial sector development, and interest rate, openness of the economy, real gross domestic product, inflation rate and broad money supply. Ordinary least square method of data analysis was used. From model one, the study found that real gross domestic product have positive but insignificant effect, openness of the economy have positive and insignificant effect, interest rate have positive and significant effect, financial deepening have positive and insignificant effect while interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate have negative effect on private real investment. The coefficient of determination (R2) proved that the independent variables can explain 62 percent variation on private real investment; the f- statistics found that the model is significant while the Durbin Watson statistics proved the presence of serial autocorrelation. The effect of macroeconomic variables on private equity investment was presented in model two. The study found that openness of the economy; real gross domestic products, broad money supply, and interest rate have negative and insignificant effect on private equity investment except openness of the economy with significant effect. Inflation rate, financial sector deepening and exchange rate have positive and insignificant effect on private equity investment except financial deepening with significant effect. The R2 proved that the independent variables can predict 66.9 percent variation on private equity investment. The f- statistics found that the model is significant while the Durbin Watson statistics proved the presence of serial autocorrelation. We conclude that macroeconomic variable have significant effect on private investment in Nigeria. We recommend that interest rate must be able to encourage higher private investment by increasing the real interstate on private savings or household savings so that larger amount of income would be saved to accumulate more capital and hence private investment. Policies should be formulated by investors and government to discourage factors that affect negatively private investment.

scholarly journals Social and Economic Drivers of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-143
Author(s):  
Ismaila Akanni Yusuf ◽  
Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen ◽  
Hope Agbonrofo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Stock Performance ◽  
Stock Market Performance

The study examines the effect of the social and economic indicators on the stock market performance in Nigeria between 1981 and 2019. The study employs secondary data from the World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria using the ordinary least squares as the technique of estimation. Findings show that regarding the economic drivers, interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation rate negatively impact the stock market while only income exerts a positive impact. However, both income and interest rate are significant economic drivers of stock performance. Regarding social drivers, life expectancy, poverty, and population exert a positive impact on stock performance. Similarly, both life expectancy and population are significant social drivers of stock market performance in Nigeria. The study recommends that monetary authorities should be cautious in avoiding discretionary policies that might hike the exchange rate; otherwise, the flow of funds to the stock market will be derailed. Also, the fiscal authority should invest massively in safety nets programmes to enhance the capacity of the growing population and reduce poverty.

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