scholarly journals Domestic Savings, Investment, and Economic Growth: an Empirical Evidence from Nepal using VEC Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudan Kumar Oli ◽  
Yuantao Xie
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Recursive Estimation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the relationship between domestic savings, investment, and economic growth in Nepal by using time series data covering from the period 1975 to 2019. The vector error correction model (VECM) has been used to investigate the long-run and short-run causal relationship between the variables. The Johansen cointegration test results confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between savings, investment, and economic growth. Therefore, further analysis has to be set for the VEC model to analyze both long-run and shortrun causality. The VECM equation result is -0.1363 which is the adjustment speed of disequilibrium towards the equilibrium in long run. The coeffi cient of savings and investments are positive with economic growth which also indicates that both variables have a positive impact on economic growth in the short run. The results of the Jarque-Bera test show the residual distribution is normally distributed. For the model stability test, the study performed recursive estimation applying CUSUM and CUSUM of square, and both tests move within the 5 percent level of upper and lesser bound significance indicating that the model is stable over the observation period. Overall, the study suggests that in Nepal, domestic savings and investment growth have a positive contribution to economic growth. The central bank, planning commission, and ministry of finance should focus on stimulating the capital formation and productive sector investment for sustainable economic growth in Nepal.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

The Dynamics of Exports and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence from Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Clement A.U. Ighodaro ◽  
Ovenseri-Ogbomo F. O.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The paper empirically examines the dynamics of exports and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data for 1970 to 2017. The Vector autoregressive model (VAR) was used to investigate the long run and short run relationship between exports and economic growth as well as some selected variables. The result shows that there exists a stable long run relationship among economic growth, exports, capital expenditure on education and social services. Also, the Granger causality results reveal that export Granger causes economic growth and not the other way round. This means that an increase in economic growth may result from increase in export, but increase in economic growth does not necessarily lead to increase in exports. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that a one standard innovation in exports will lead to permanent positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This therefore supports the exports led growth hypothesis for Nigeria.

scholarly journals China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, Logistics Developments and Economic Growth in Pakistan

Logistics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Zunaira Khadim ◽  
Irem Batool ◽  
Muhammad Bilal Lodhi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Factor Inputs ◽  
The Impact

The study aims to analyze the impact of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) logistics-related developments on economic growth in Pakistan. The study defined a Cobb–Douglas type of research framework in which the country’s real income level relates to four factor inputs, e.g., employed labor force, logistics development, financial development, and energy consumption in an economy. The study utilized the time series data set for the period 1972–2018. To estimate the long run relationship and short run adjustment mechanism, the study used Johansen’s method of co-integration and error correction model. Estimated results showed that the country’s logistics developments have a significant positive impact on economic growth in both the long run and the short run. It implies that China–Pakistan collaborative efforts for logistics developments will have a strong positive impact on economic growth in Pakistan.

scholarly journals FOREIGN INVESTMENT INFLOWS AND THE STRUGGLE FOR A RENEWED ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 88-103
Author(s):  
Aderopo Raphael Adediyan ◽  
Emmanuel Ekomoezor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series

This study attempts to find answer to the question of whether Nigeria should intensify effort to draw home more foreign investment; would more of foreign investment inflows accelerate Nigeria economic performance? Methodologically, annual time series data from 1986 to 2018 was analyzed using ARDL approach. The key findings are that, although FDI has long-run positive impact on economic growth, FPI has no operational effect on the growth; this is true of FPI both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, labour force and trade openness were found to have long-run and short-run positive impact on growth. Hence, government must tactically open up economy to trans-border trade, increase labour supply and intensify effort to attract more FDI.

scholarly journals Role of Inflow of Resources on Economic Growth of Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 66-78
Author(s):  
Tilak Singh Mahara ◽  
Naw Raj Bhatt
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to examine the role of the inflow of resources on the economic growth of Nepal incorporating annual time-series data sets of 45 years from 1975 to 2019. The autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration is used to identify the long-run as well as the short-run relationship between the variables. The empirical finding indicates that there is a positive relationship between the inflow of resources and economic growth. Quantitatively, gross national saving, domestic loans, foreign loans, and export earnings have a positive impact on the economic growth in both the long-run as well as short-run for the Nepalese economy. Policies encouraging private sector participation, enlarging efficiency, and effectiveness of public sector projects, and expanding export base must be implemented.

scholarly journals Nexus between Economic Growth, Tourism Revenue and Financial Development in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 134
Author(s):  
Syeda Sumaiya Habib ◽  
Md. Shahanawaz Sharif ◽  
Mohammad Amzad Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tourism Revenue

The main objective of this study is to analyze the nexus between economic growth, tourism revenue, and financial development in Bangladesh. This paper uses time series data from 1995 to 2016. Advance technique of time series analysis: Johansen Cointegration Approach is used to test the Cointegration among variables. Moreover, the Vector Error Correction (VECM) has been applied to study the long run and short run association among variables. The outcome of this study reveals that the tourism revenue and financial development has positive impact on economic growth in the long run. Variance decomposition and impulse response function also supports the positive association. According to the estimation of Granger Causality also reveals the unilateral direction in short run economic growth to tourism revenue. Providing more credit by financial sector to invest more on infrastructure and promoting Bangladesh as well as insuring proper security for foreign visitors would increase the revenue of this sector, which in turn stimulates economic growth of the country.

scholarly journals Elections, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth in Ghana’s Fourth Republic: 1993 to 2016

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been seen as an important factor influencing economic growth directly and indirectly in both developed and developing countries. This study assesses the impact of FDI on growth in Ghana since the return to constitutional rule in 1993. The study uses time series data from 1993 to 2016. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged model (ARDL), the study finds a positive impact of FDI on growth both in the short-run and long-run. However, there is a lag period of two. The study equally finds that Gross Saving has a positive impact on growth. On the other hand inflation has a negative effect on growth both in the short and long run. The study also discovered that FDI granger causes growth but GDP does not granger cause FDI. Post-election years with incidence of political uncertainty slow down FDI inflow into Ghana. The study recommends the adoption of stringent fiscal and monetary policies to keep inflation low. It also recommends maintaining and improving the liberal market environment to attract investors, policies to encourage saving, and improving on political transitions to avoid uncertainties for investors.

scholarly journals FINANCIAL CRISES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-33
Author(s):  
Ogbebor Peter ◽  
◽  
Awonuga Adesola ◽  
Ezenwa Anthony ◽  
Oamen Gregory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

The effects of financial crises on economic growth of countries are destabilizing and research interests in this area in the case of Nigeria has not be sufficiently exhibited, hence, this study. The study examined the effect of financial crises on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data that covered a period from 1986 to 2019. For data analysis, the major empirical tools utilized are Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Co-integration and ECM techniques, following the result of the unit root tests that revealed mixture of I(0) and I(1). The ARDL Co-integration result revealed that long run relationship exists among the selected variables of interest in this study. Furthermore, ECM technique revealed that Financial Crises have negative and significant effect on Economic growth in Nigeria both in the long run and short run. Also, the effect of current value of Inflation was found to be negative and significant in the long run and that of Trade openness was positive and statistically significant in the short run. Also, the study found that there are long run and short run positive and significant impacts of Liberalization on Economic growth. Finally, the findings revealed that the current year values of Money Supply have negative and significant impact on current Economic growth; however, its past value has positive impact. The study concluded that a long-run relationship existed between financial crises and economic growth; specifically, such crises have negative and significant effects on economic growth of Nigeria. The government in general should tinker with the current policy prescription regarding the establishment of financial institutions especially those that cannot qualify for the status of domestically systematically important to avert recurring crises in the financial sector that have impacted the macro-economy negatively.

Effectiveness of Foreign Aid to India in Post-Liberalization Era: The Self-Reliant India Expedition

2021 ◽  
pp. 25-34
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Foreign Assistance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Supportive Role ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Short Run

The present study attempted to configure an ARDL model depicting the short and long-run effectiveness of foreign aid from the World Bank on India's growth and development. Analyzing the annual time series data of 27 years (1991 to 2017), the study indicated the effectiveness of foreign aid for economic growth in short-run and economic development in the long-run. However, with domestic savings in the country, foreign assistance only played a supportive role. Therefore, a self-reliant country like India favoured foreign assistance. The study suggested that India's Government focuses on making out policies and providing proper implementation and assistance from foreign financial assistance. Policy guidelines must be aimed at setting up a committee to review the proper utilization of foreign aid periodically. It would embark the effectiveness of foreign in the economic growth and development of the country.

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