scholarly journals A costloss analysis to evaluate the value of weather estimates as inputs to a disease risk model

2008 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 296-300
Author(s):  
K.S. Kim ◽  
R.M. Beresford ◽  
W.R. Henshall
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Interpolation ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Nearest Neighbour ◽  
Spray Application ◽  
Bunch Rot ◽  
The Cost

To assess the value of weather estimates the expenses including the cost of spray application and the losses incurred because of a disease were analysed using disease risk simulations In this case study the risk of botrytis bunch rot was simulated using weather estimates as inputs to a disease risk model Those estimates were obtained using spatial interpolation and nearest neighbour methods Possible cost was calculated based on 2 by 2 matrices under the assumption that fungicide spray decisions were made using the disease risk model with estimated weather data The expenses associated with each combination of decisions on spray application and outcome were compared between weather estimates and measurements

scholarly journals Prediction of disease risk using sitespecific estimates of weather variables

2007 ◽  
Vol 60 ◽  
pp. 128-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.S. Kim ◽  
R.M. Beresford ◽  
W.R. Henshall
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Interpolation ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Voronoi Tessellation ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Bunch Rot ◽  
Spatial Interpolation Method

To improve the implementation of weatherbased disease risk models a spatial interpolation method was investigated to provide weather estimates for specific sites Two sites in the HortResearch horticultural weather station network one in Marlborough and one in Hawkes Bay were selected as validation sites Interpolated weather data were estimated for these sites from November to March in 200304 and 200405 using actual weather data from nearby stations that were selected as natural neighbours using the geometrical technique Voronoi tessellation Wetness duration was also estimated using interpolated weather data as inputs to an empirical wetness model Air temperature estimates were comparable to actual measurements but wetness duration was overestimated When interpolated and actual data were used as inputs to the grape botrytis model Bacchus predicted risks were comparable to each other for short periods rather than the whole growing season This suggests that risk of botrytis bunch rot could be predicted reliably at a specific site using the spatial interpolation method

scholarly journals Use of an Empirical Model to Estimate Leaf Wetness Duration for Operation of a Disease Warning System Under a Shade in a Ginseng Field

Plant Disease ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyu Jong Lee ◽  
Je Yong Kang ◽  
Dong Yun Lee ◽  
Soo Won Jang ◽  
Semi Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Model ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Leaf Wetness ◽  
Spray Application ◽  
Leaf Wetness Duration ◽  
Foliar Diseases

Ginseng foliar diseases are typically controlled by spray application using periodic schedules. Few disease warning systems have been used for effective control of ginseng foliar diseases because ginseng is grown under shade nettings, which makes it difficult to obtain weather data for operation of the disease warning system. Using weather data measured outside the shade as inputs to an empirical leaf wetness duration (LWD) model, LWD was estimated to examine if operation of a disease warning system would be feasible for control of ginseng foliar diseases. An empirical model based on a fuzzy logic system (fuzzy model) was used to estimate LWD at two commercial ginseng fields located in Gochang-gun and Jeongeup-si, Korea, in 2011 and 2012. Accuracy of LWD estimates was assessed in terms of mean error (ME) and mean absolute error (MAE). The fuzzy model tended to overestimate LWD during dew eligible days whereas it tended to underestimate LWD during rainfall eligible days. Still, daily disease risk ratings of the TOM-CAST disease warning system, which are derived from estimates of wetness duration and temperature, had a tendency to coincide with that derived from measurements of weather variables. As a result, spray advisory dates for the TOM-CAST disease warning system were predicted within ±3 days for about 78% of time windows during which the action threshold for spray application was reached. This result suggested that estimates of LWD using an empirical model would be helpful in control of a foliar disease in a ginseng field. It was also found that a spray application time model using meteorological observations may prove successful without the requirement of leaf wetness sensors within the field. Development of empirical correction schemes to the fuzzy model and a physical model for LWD estimation in a ginseng field could improve accuracy of LWD estimates and, as a result, spray advisory date prediction, which merits further studies.

scholarly journals Remote sensing and interpolation methods can obtain weather data for disease prediction

2010 ◽  
Vol 63 ◽  
pp. 182-186
Author(s):  
K.S. Kim ◽  
G.N. Hill ◽  
R.M. Beresford
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Spatial Interpolation ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Weather Station ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Crop Disease

The risk of the appearance or the intensification of a crop disease can be assessed using information about the weather the pathogen or the crop Weather data for use in disease risk prediction can be obtained from measurements at a nearby weather station While weather measurements can represent accurate weather conditions at the site where the weather station is located these data are representative only of a small area near the station To obtain weather information over a larger area spatial interpolation and remote sensing can be used to estimate the likely weather conditions in other locations It is crucial to obtain weather data at an appropriate temporal resolution (eg daily or hourly) for a given disease in order to predict the disease A weather database system is being constructed to provide highquality climatic data (eg daily temperature humidity and rainfall) which can be used to quantify the link between weather conditions and disease outbreaks

Lands DSS

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-33
Author(s):  
Gianni Fenu ◽  
Francesca Maridina Malloci
Keyword(s):  
Cross Validation ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Feed Forward Neural Network ◽  
Crop Disease ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

Decision support systems (DSSs) are used in precision farming to address climate and environmental changes due to human action. However, increments in the amount of data produced continuously by the latest sensor and satellite technologies have recently incentivized the integration of artificial intelligence (AI). A review of research dedicated to the application of DSSs and AI in forecasting crop disease is proposed. In this paper, the authors describe the DSS LANDS developed for monitoring the main crop productions in Sardinia and the case study conducted to forecast potato late blight. A feed-forward neural network was implemented to investigate if weather data provided by regional stations could be used to predict a disease risk index using an AI technique. The test performed by stratified k-fold cross validation achieved an accuracy of 96%.

Developing Schedule With Linear Programming (Case Study: STTF II Project Komplek Sukamukti Banjaran)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
pp. 34-45
Author(s):  
Naufal Dzikri Afifi ◽  
Ika Arum Puspita ◽  
Mohammad Deni Akbar
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Time Limit ◽  
Minimum Time ◽  
Service Cost ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Overtime Work ◽  
The Cost

Shift to The Front II Komplek Sukamukti Banjaran Project is one of the projects implemented by one of the companies engaged in telecommunications. In its implementation, each project including Shift to The Front II Komplek Sukamukti Banjaran has a time limit specified in the contract. Project scheduling is an important role in predicting both the cost and time in a project. Every project should be able to complete the project before or just in the time specified in the contract. Delay in a project can be anticipated by accelerating the duration of completion by using the crashing method with the application of linear programming. Linear programming will help iteration in the calculation of crashing because if linear programming not used, iteration will be repeated. The objective function in this scheduling is to minimize the cost. This study aims to find a trade-off between the costs and the minimum time expected to complete this project. The acceleration of the duration of this study was carried out using the addition of 4 hours of overtime work, 3 hours of overtime work, 2 hours of overtime work, and 1 hour of overtime work. The normal time for this project is 35 days with a service fee of Rp. 52,335,690. From the results of the crashing analysis, the alternative chosen is to add 1 hour of overtime to 34 days with a total service cost of Rp. 52,375,492. This acceleration will affect the entire project because there are 33 different locations worked on Shift to The Front II and if all these locations can be accelerated then the duration of completion of the entire project will be effective

Perancangan dan Pembuatan Alat Bantu Meja Putar untuk Mesin Cnc 4 Axis

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-171
Author(s):  
Hafid Hafid ◽  
Tatang Sutisna
Keyword(s):  
Processing Time ◽  
Rotary Table ◽  
Engineering Process ◽  
Cnc Machine ◽  
Economical Analysis ◽  
Machining Center ◽  
Design And Manufacturing ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Productivity And Competitiveness

The design and manufacturing of the rotary table with the specification Ø 170 mm (6 inches) for CNC machine 4 axis has been done. The objective of manufacturing a rotary table is to increase the efficiency of CNC machine Hardford 4 axis to be above 80% in line machining center CV. IM’s workshop. The engineering methods was taken, consist of: working preparation, manufacturing of working drawing, engineering process, the manufacturing and testing. The prototype has been tested and operated, the resulting of increasing productivity of which were as follows: the process of assembling was increased to be 3 time ( before 1 time) and processing time for a specific case reduced from 5 hours to 3 hours, number of operators for the case of assembling the rotary reduced to 1 person (before 4 persons), safety and security become to be better. The results show increased efficiency of CNC machine Hardford, from under 50% to be above 80%. Based on the economical analysis obtained by the cost of good sold (C.G.S) of the rotary table is IDR 34.060.000. The results presented in this paper is expected to be case study for developing a business of the metal and engineering SMEs domestic to the effort of improving efficiency, quality, productivity and competitiveness in global market.ABSTRAKPerancangan dan pembuatan alat bantu meja putar (rotary table) dengan spesifikasi teknis Ø 170 mm (6 inci) untuk mesin CNC 4 axis telah dilakukan. Tujuan pembuatan rotary table adalah untuk meningkatkan efisiensi mesin CNC Hardford 4 axis di atas 80% pada line machining center Bengkel CV. IM. Metode rancang bangun yang dilakukan, meliputi: persiapan kerja, pembuatan gambar kerja, proses engineering, pembuatan dan uji coba. Prototip tersebut telah diuji coba dan dioperasikan dengan hasil peningkatan produktivitas sebagai berikut: proses pengerjaan bongkar pasang meningkat menjadi 3 kali (sebelumnya 1 kali) dan waktu pengerjaan untuk kasus tertentu berkurang dari 5 jam menjadi 3 jam, jumlah operator untuk kasus bongkar pasang rotary berkurang menjadi 1 orang (sebelumnya 4 orang), keselamatan kerja dan keamanan menjadi lebih baik. Hasil peningkatan berupa efisiensi mesin CNC Hardford 4 axis dari sebelumnya di bawah 50% menjadi di atas 80%. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan analisis ekonomi diperoleh harga pokok produksi (HPP) alat bantu meja putar adalah sebesar Rp. 34.060.000. Bahasan ini diharapkan menjadi contoh kasus bagi pengembangan usaha IKM logam dan mesin dalam negeri untuk meningkatkan efisiensi, mutu, produktivitas dan keunggulan daya saing di pasar global.Kata kunci: alat bantu meja putar, mesin CNC, harga pokok produksi

Case Study—Failure Analysis of a Multiplexer

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Woo ◽  
Marcos Campos ◽  
Luigi Aranda
Keyword(s):  
Failure Analysis ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Component Failure ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
Cause Of Failure ◽  
The Cost

Abstract A component failure has the potential to significantly impact the cost, manufacturing schedule, and/or the perceived reliability of a system, especially if the root cause of the failure is not known. A failure analysis is often key to mitigating the effects of a componentlevel failure to a customer or a system; minimizing schedule slips, minimizing related accrued costs to the customer, and allowing for the completion of the system with confidence that the reliability of the product had not been compromised. This case study will show how a detailed and systemic failure analysis was able to determine the exact cause of failure of a multiplexer in a high-reliability system, which allowed the manufacturer to confidently proceed with production knowing that the failure was not a systemic issue, but rather that it was a random “one time” event.

The Concept of the Optimum Alignment of Discharge Pipelines Due to the Minimization of the Wave Forces

1992 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 211-216
Author(s):  
A. Akyarli ◽  
Y. Arisoy
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Wave Force ◽  
Wave Forces ◽  
Wave Direction ◽  
Incoming Wave ◽  
Pipeline Route ◽  
Optimum Alignment ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Resultant Wave

As the wave forces are the function of the wave height, period and the angle between the incoming wave direction and the axis of the discharge pipeline, the resultant wave force is directly related to the alignment of the pipeline. In this paper, a method is explained to determine an optimum pipeline route for which the resultant wave force becomes minimum and hence, the cost of the constructive measures may decrease. Also, the application of this method is submitted through a case study.

Neither Victors nor Victims

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Whetham
Keyword(s):  
First Century ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Civil Military Relations ◽  
High Street ◽  
National Survival ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Military Relations ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Realistic Goal

Between 2007 and 2011, Wootton Bassett, a small Wiltshire town in the UK, became the focus of national attention as its residents responded to the regular repatriations of dead soldiers through its High Street. The town’s response came to symbolize the way that broader attitudes developed and changed over that period. As such, it is a fascinating case study in civil–military relations in the twenty-first century. Success may be the same as victory, but victory, at least as it has been traditionally understood, is not a realistic goal in many types of contemporary conflict. Discretionary wars—conflicts in which national survival is not an issue and even vital national interests may not be at stake—pose particular challenges for any government which does not explain why the cost being paid in blood and treasure is ‘worth it’.

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