DETERMINAN DAN EKUIVALEN TARIF IMPOR JASA FINANSIAL DAN ASURANSI NEGARA RCEP

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-166
Author(s):  
Meidah Azhari ◽  
Widyastutik Widyastutik
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Colonial History ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Tariff Equivalent

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) merupakan bentuk kerjasama yang diinisiasi ASEAN pada tahun 2012. Jasa finansial dan asuransi merupakan salah satu sektor jasa yang memiliki peran penting terhadap stabilitas perekonomian dunia. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi impor jasa finansial dan asuransi serta melakukan estimasi ekuivalen tarif untuk melihat seberapa besar hambatan dalam perdagangan jasa pada masing-masing negara RCEP. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan gravity model dengan analisis regresi data panel. Data yang digunakan bersumber dari data dasar Global Trade Analysis Projects (GTAP) dan Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PDB, jarak, bahasa, dan sejarah kolonial signifikan memengaruhi impor. Estimasi ekuivalen tarif menunjukkan bahwa Selandia Baru, Filipina, RRT, India, dan Korea Selatan merupakan negara yang memiliki hambatan perdagangan paling tinggi. Kesamaan bahasa dan sejarah kolonial merupakan faktor yang memiliki pengaruh paling besar terhadap perdagangan. Untuk itu perlu adanya upaya dalam meningkatkan kemampuan penggunaan bahasa asing serta menjalin hubungan yang baik antara negara yang memiliki kesamaan sejarah kolonial. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a framework agreement which was initiated by ASEAN on 2012. Financial and insurance service is a service sector which has an important role in the world economic stability.The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of import in financial and insurance services and to estimate tariff equivalent in each member of RCEP. This study employs Gravity model approach with regression analysis of panel data.The data were obtained from Global Trade Analysis Projects (GTAP) and Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales(CEPII).The results indicate that GDP, distance, common language, and common colony have a significant effect on import. The estimation of tariff equivalent shows that New Zealand, Philippines, China, India, and South Korea are countries with the highest trade barriers. This study concludes that the similarities of language and historical background among countries are the factors that have the highest influence in trade.Therefore, increasing the use of foreign language and establishing better relationships between countries with the same colonial history are crucial to be done.

scholarly journals ASEAN-Kanada Free Trade Agreement (FTA): Peluang Bagi Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Steven Raja Ingot ◽  
Dian Dwi Laksani
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Feasibility Study ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Tariff Reduction ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Trade Facilitation ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

Abstrak Senior Economic Officials Meetings (SEOM) ke-8 di Laos menghasilkan komitmen bersama ASEAN dan Kanada untuk melakukan feasibility study dalam kerangka kerja sama ASEAN-Kanada FTA. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung dampak perjanjian perdagangan barang Indonesia pada ASEAN-Kanada FTA dengan model analisis Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) - Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) dengan Data Base versi 9. Penelitian ini menggunakan tiga simulasi yaitu (1) Indonesia bergabung ASEAN-Kanada FTA dengan penurunan tarif untuk semua komoditi sebesar 90% mengadopsi proposal modalitas ASEAN dalam Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), (2) penurunan tarif sebesar 90% tanpa Indonesia bergabung dalam ASEAN-Kanada FTA, (3) serta peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan hambatan non tarif sebesar 20%. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa dari sisi Makroekonomi Indonesia akan mendapat dampak positif peningkatan GDP sebesar 0,03% jika bergabung dalam ASEAN-Kanada FTA dibandingkan jika tidak bergabung. Indonesia akan mendapat dampak positif lebih besar jika terdapat peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan NTM sebesar 3,35% serta peningkatan investasi sebesar 8,53%. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi, penurunan output dan peningkatan impor didominasi oleh impor bahan baku dan barang modal yang digunakan untuk input industri, sehingga keberadaan impor bahan baku tetap diperlukan. Kajian ini merekomendasikan penurunan tarif, peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan NTM merupakan kebijakan yang sangat diperlukan. Kata Kunci: ASEAN-Kanada FTA, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Perdagangan, Investasi   Abstract At the 8th ASEAN Economic Senior Review Official Meetings (SEOM) in Laos, ASEAN and Canada committed to conduct a feasibility study within the framework of ASEAN-Canada FTA. This study aims to measures the impact of ASEAN-Canada FTA implementation to Indonesia using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – the 9th version of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The study run three different simulations (1) Indonesia joining the ASEAN-Canada with a 90% tariff reduction applied to all goods adopting ASEAN modality in Regional Comprehensice Economic Partnership (RCEP); (2) 90% Tariff reduction without Indonesia joining the ASEAN-Canada FTA, (3) improving trade facilitation and decreasing 20% non-tariff measures. Simulation result shown that from Macroeconomic perspective, Indonesia will get positive impact of increasing 0.03% GDP by joining the FTA instead of not joining. Indonesia will get higher impact by increasing trade facilitation and 8.53% investment and reducing 3.35% of NTM. Based on the results, the declining output and increasing import is dominated by import of raw materials and capital goods, therefore import of raw material remain important. This study recommended reducing tariff and NTM as well as improving trade facilitation are necessary for Indonesia. Keywords: ASEAN-Canada FTA, Economic Growth, Trade, Investment JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15

scholarly journals INDIA’S EXPORT POTENTIAL WITH NON-ASEAN RCEP NATIONS-AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-11
Author(s):  
Dr.O.S.Deol
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Empirical Estimation ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
Merchandise Export ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
Common Trade

In November 2019, India decided to pull out from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), initiated in 2012 to create a common trade block comprising 10 ASEAN nations along with Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea P R, and New Zealand. India already has free trade agreement (FTA) with ASEAN nations. In this backdrop, it becomes quite interesting to know about India’s export potential with Non-ASEAN RCEP nations. Since India has significant scope in export of services, this paper aims to assess India’s merchandise export potential with Non-ASEAN RCEP countries, viz. Australia, China, Japan, Korea P R, and New Zealand. The gravity model of international trade is employed to estimate India’s merchandise export potential with these nations. Panel data on India’s merchandise exports, spanning from 2005 to 2018, have been employed and results are based on pooled effects, random effects and fixed effect methods of OLS estimation. The study shows that India seems to have merchandise export potential with China only, while no merchandise export potential seems to exist with Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. The finding of this research would be useful for academics, industry experts and government policy makers. KEYWORDS: Gravity Model, Export Potential, ASEAN, RCEP, India JEL Classification: F1, F12, O24

Trade Creation or Trade Diversion in ASEAN and ASEAN+6 FTAs: Trade Indicators Approach

2015 ◽  
pp. 25-41
Author(s):  
Anh Tu Thuy ◽  
Ngoc Le Minh
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Wheat Gluten ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

This paper makes use of two trade indicators, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Regional Orientation (RO), to evaluate the economic impacts of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (The) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on Vietnamese commodities at the Harmonized System (HS) 2-digit level. Several sectors in which Vietnam has revealed a comparative advantage, has benefited from the AFTA, and would continue to enjoy trade creation from the RCEP, are: Cereals (10), Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement (25), Rubber (40), Knitted or crocheted fabric (60), etc. More importantly, the result provides a list of commodities in which Vietnam has a comparative advantage and only experiences trade creation when participating in the RCEP. These are: Milling products, malt, starches, inulin, wheat gluten (11), Vegetable plaiting materials, vegetable products not elsewhere specified (14), Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal (44), etc. Findings also show commodities in which Vietnam has a comparative advantage; but are not well positioned in the RCEP market yet, e.g. Cereal, flour, starch, milk preparations and products (19) and Manmade staple fibres (55). If sufficient investment decisions and marketing strategies are applied to these commodities, they will well penetrate the RCEP market and bring trade creation and welfare improvement to Vietnam. Public and private investment should consider the above-mentioned commodities as targets to leapfrog the benefits of RCEP.

Nowcasting global trade in goods and services

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Fernando Cantú-Bazaldúa
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dynamic Factor Models ◽  
Significant Information ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
World Economic

World economic aggregates are compiled infrequently and released after considerable lags. There are, however, many potentially relevant series released in a timely manner and at a higher frequency that could provide significant information about the evolution of global aggregates. The challenge is then to extract the relevant information from this multitude of indicators and combine it to track the real-time evolution of the target variables. We develop a methodology based on dynamic factor models adapted for variables with heterogeneous frequencies, ragged ends and missing data. We apply this methodology to nowcast global trade in goods in goods and services. In addition to monitoring these variables in real time, this method can also be used to obtain short-term forecasts based on the most up-to-date values of the underlying indicators.

Respon ASEAN Terhadap Mundurnya India Dari Kerja Sama Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

2020 ◽  
pp. 183-202
Author(s):  
Raden Maisa Yudono ◽  
Wiwiek Rukmi Dwi Astuti ◽  
M. Chairil Akbar Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Geographic Proximity ◽  
Strategic Partner ◽  
Business Interests ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
Static Point

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a cooperation framework formulated by ASEAN and 6 strategic partner countries and is the first proposal in ASEAN history to discuss comprehensive economic cooperation. RCEP is ASEAN's effort to strengthen its position as regional aktor in the Southeast Asian. RCEP negotiations underwent changes during India's decision to withdraw from the RCEP negotiations, which prompted ASEAN to respond to these developments. This study fokuses on response taken by ASEAN to India's decision to withdraw from the RCEP negotiations. The concept used is soft regionalism which emphasizes geographic proximity, historical relations and the comparative advantage of the region. Soft regionalism is driven by not only by economic and business interests, but also market interests that become the energy of soft regionalism in Asia. This concept is functioning well because it conforms to the pragmatic Asian political conditions. The findings of this study is that ASEAN cannot be separated from the concept of soft regionalism in which it has been running, and still sees all changes through static point of view. ASEAN needs to make new breakthroughs in realizing comprehensive cooperation in the region.

scholarly journals Comércio internacional, alocação do trabalho e a questão da desindustrialização no Brasil: uma abordagem utilizando equilíbrio geral computável

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flávio Tosi Feijó ◽  
Camila Steffens
Keyword(s):  
Global Trade ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project

<p>O presente artigo objetiva avaliar os impactos na alocação do emprego formal do fator trabalho no Brasil e verificar evidências de desindustrialização, mediante a simulação de cenários de aprofundamento do comércio internacional. O instrumento utilizado para as simulações é o modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável GTAP (<italic>Global Trade Analysis Project</italic>). Os resultados obtidos, combinados com os dados da RAIS (Relatório Anual de Informações Sociais), indicaram evidências de desindustrialização, devido à queda do emprego na indústria de transformação brasileira, principalmente no nível de qualificação média. Acordos preferenciais de comércio com a Ásia e com a União Europeia seriam os que mais contribuiriam para a referida redução. Entretanto, haveria ganhos de bem-estar em decorrência da melhor alocação dos recursos produtivos e dos termos de troca.</p>

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