Análise dos Impactos dos Acordos de Complementação Econômica entre Brasil e México

O objetivo deste estudo é analisar os potenciais impactos do acordo de complementação econômica (ACE nº 53 e ACE nº 55) nos fluxos comerciais da economia brasileira. Neste sentido, buscou-se fazer uma síntese das relações comerciais entre Brasil e México e simular cenários do acordo de complementação econômica Brasil e México com redução de 50% e 100% das tarifas. Os setores foram classificados com base no grau de intensidade tecnológica conforme os critérios estabelecidos pela Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE), isolando o setor de veículos. O Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (EGC) foi usado para a simulação, utilizando a base de dados Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), versão 9. Os resultados revelaram, em ambos os cenários analisados, dois grandes benefícios para o Brasil. O primeiro se deve ao aumento das exportações e importações de produtos do setor de veículos e de média-alta e alta intensidade tecnológica, diminuindo a exportação de commodities, o que estimularia a produção industrial brasileira. O segundo ganho seria o aumento do bem-estar, principalmente por causa do aumento da eficiência alocativa.

Simulações de Acordos de Livre Comércio para o Mercosul: Cenários com a China e com os Estados Unidos

Este trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar as consequências de acordos de livre comércio do MERCOSUL de uma perspectiva brasileira. Para atingir este objetivo, utiliza-se como ferramenta o modelo de equilíbrio geral computável GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). São simulados dois acordos distintos: um com a China e outro com os Estados Unidos. A escolha desses países se dá pelo fato de serem os principais parceiros comerciais dos países do MERCOSUL, além de representarem dois lados antagônicos de uma atual guerra comercial. Os resultados mostram que os países envolvidos nos acordos comerciais melhoram a eficiência alocativa e aumentam a especialização de acordo com as vantagens comparativas. Para o Brasil, o acordo com a China é preferível devido aos ganhos de bem-estar e ao maior aumento do PIB e da eficiência alocativa. Para o resto do MERCOSUL, porém, tais efeitos são maiores no acordo com os Estados Unidos.

The Impact on Carbon Emissions of China with the Trade Situation versus the U.S.

The China–US trade conflict will inevitably have a negative impact on China’s trade imports and exports, industrial development, and economic growth, and will affect the achievement of climate change goals. In the short term, the impact of the trade conflict on China’s import and export trade will cause the carbon emissions contained in traded commodities to change accordingly. To assess the impact of the trade conflict on China’s climate policy, this paper combines a model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the input–output analysis method and calculates the carbon emissions in international trade before and after the conflict. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The trade war has led to a sharp decline in China–US trade, but for China as a whole, imports and exports have not changed much; (2) China’s export emissions have changed little, its import emissions have dropped slightly, and its net emissions have increased; and (3) China’s exports are still concentrated in energy-intensive industries. Changes in trade will bring challenges to China’s balancing of climate and trade exigencies. China–US cooperation based on energy and technology will help China cope with climate change after the trade conflict.

What is the Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Decarbonization Speeds? The Case of Greece

In alignment with the European Union’s legislation, Greece submitted its final 10-year National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) in December 2019, setting more ambitious energy and climate targets than those originally proposed in the draft version of the document. Apart from higher penetration of renewable energy sources (RES), the final NECP projects also zero carbon use in power generation till 2030. Although decarbonization has long been regarded beneficial for economies that base their energy production on coal, as it is the case with Greece, the macroeconomic and societal ramifications of faster transitions to carbon-free economies remain highly unexplored. Under this context, in this paper, we soft-link energy models, namely Times-Greece and Primes, with a macroeconomic model, namely Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), to measure the effects of the final and draft NECPs on the Greek economy and evaluate the impact of higher decarbonization speeds. We find that the faster transition scenario displays both economic and societal merits, increasing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and household income by about 1% and 7%, respectively.

Análise de cenários do agronegócio brasileiro frente à China, aos EUA e à UE, utilizando um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

Resumo O objetivo do estudo é analisar as oportunidades de comércio a partir da simulação de uma possível integração comercial do Brasil com a China, com os EUA e com a UE, buscando identificar os setores mais beneficiados pelo eventual acordo, classificados conforme seu grau de intensidade tecnológica, com ênfase no agronegócio brasileiro. Empregou-se a classificação de produtos por grau de intensidade tecnológica segundo os critérios da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE) e foi utilizado o modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, mediante uso da base de dados Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), versão 9, para simular os impactos sobre o comércio internacional e os efeitos sobre o bem-estar de uma possível integração comercial do Brasil com os parceiros selecionados. Por fim, os resultados obtidos mostram que os ganhos de bem-estar para o Brasil, em todos os acordos, estão principalmente vinculados à melhor alocação dos seus recursos produtivos, que estariam concentrados basicamente nos setores primários e de baixa intensidade tecnológica, que agregaria o agronegócio.

Dampak Kebijakan Tarif terhadap Sektor Pertanian di Indonesia: Analisis Model Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)

Paper ini bertujuan untuk melihat dampak yang ditimbulkan adanya kebijakan pengenaan tarif pada sektor pertanian di Indonesia. Model GTAP diimplementasikan untuk melihat dampak yang ditimbulkan pada PDB, neraca perdagangan, kesejahteraan, terms of trade, nilai impor, nilai ekspor, pola perdagangan dunia, dan perubahan pada sektor tenaga kerja di Indonesia. Hasil simulasi kebijakan menjelaskan bahwa adanya pengenaan tarif impor sebesar 7,5% dapat meningkatkan PDB, neraca perdagangan, kesejahteraan, dan terms of trade. Hasil simulasi dengan pengenaan tarif sebesar 0% juga menjelaskan bahwa nilai impor, nilai ekspor, perdagangan dunia, dan perubahan pada sektor tenaga kerja memiliki dampak positif terhadap sektor pertanian. Disimpulkan bahwa kebijakan tarif yang diambil tergantung pada tujuan utama yang ingin diperoleh oleh suatu negara.

Development of BIMSTEC Free Trade Area for Thailand in Indo-Pacific

To develop a policy for creation of economic value and utilise the development of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) free trade area for Thailand, two research tools are adopted in this article. The first one is based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, adopted as a tool to explore quantitative impacts from the implementation of free trade area. Due to the limitations of the model, however, we have adopted a complementing qualitative analytical framework to ensure that the research must be as comprehensive as possible in every aspect. The qualitative analytical framework chosen in this article is called PEST analysis. Having completed field research, in-depth interviews, focus group meetings and model studies, this article concludes that BIMSTEC is a large-scale market with high purchasing power and growth rate as well as a great source of vast natural and human resources. It is situated not far from Thailand, and at the same time, its social and cultural conditions are very close to those of Thailand’s. It concludes that a stronger BIMSTEC is an essential foundation of Indo-Pacific. JEL Codes: F13, F 15

US Trade Actions Against China: A Supply Chain Perspective

In 2018, the United States (US) Administration initiated several trade actions, including tariffs on China for unfair trade practices outlined by the US Trade Representative (USTR). In response, China filed requests for consultations with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and has implemented or threatened to implement increased tariffs on US products. In this article, the implications of current and potential US trade actions and responses by China on the US and global economy are estimated. We employ a dynamic supply chain model based on the widely used Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base and model. Our analysis finds that US gross domestic product (GDP) would be reduced by a projected –0.86 per cent in 2030 (or US$227.8 billion in 2017 dollars), as the role of the USA in global supply chains declines significantly. China’s GDP would also decline considerably by 2.84 per cent as a result of the actions imposed against it, while the rest of the world gain, as they fill the gaps left by US and Chinese producers. JEL: F16, C68

The Impact of Nontariff Trade Policy of European Union Crude Palm Oil Import on Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Rest of the World Economy: An Analysis in GTAP Framework

Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest producers and exporters of palm oil in the world vegetable oil market. Palm oil and its derivative products are the highest contributors to foreign exchange in 2018. This study aims to analyze the impact of the European Union import non-tariff trade policies on the Indonesian and Malaysian economies The analysis uses the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of world trade on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) program. The results of this study found that the non-tariff import policy by the European Union had a negative impact on the economies of Indonesia and Malaysia. Moreover, the policy also has a negative impact on countries in Southeast Asia and the European Union. This shows that the enactment of non-tariff import trade policies for Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil products has a global impact.