scholarly journals DAMPAK KERJA SAMA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION (EAEU) TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-180
Author(s):  
Deky Paryadi ◽  
Aziza Rahmaniar Salam
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
Vegetable Foodstuffs ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Eurasian Region ◽  
Elimination Scheme

 Abstrak Kawasan Eurasia merupakan wilayah yang penting secara geopolitik dan geostrategi bagi perdagangan Indonesia. Melihat potensi yang dimiliki oleh negara-negara yang tergabung dalam Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Indonesia diharapkan dapat memanfaatkan peluang yang terbuka. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui potensi daya saing komoditas serta dampak kerja sama perdagangan Indonesia-EAEU. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) dan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model dengan data dasar GTAP versi 9 menggunakan enam simulasi. Berdasarkan analisis TCI, tingkat kesesuaian ekspor EAEU terhadap struktur impor Indonesia lebih tinggi dibandingkan ekspor Indonesia terhadap struktur impor EAEU. Dengan melihat dampak kerja sama perdagangan Indonesia-EAEU terhadap makroekonomi Indonesia, penurunan tarif bea masuk sebesar 50% untuk seluruh produk Indonesia dan EAEU merupakan alternatif kebijakan terbaik. Indonesia perlu menjajaki kemungkinan kerja sama dengan EAEU dengan pendekatan berupa eliminasi 50% pada seluruh pos tarif secara bertahap. Selain itu, disarankan Indonesia fokus pada komoditas yang memiliki daya saing di pasar EAEU yaitu sektor animal; vegetable; foodstuffs; plastics/ rubber; raw hides; woods; textile; stone/glass; machinery; dan transportation.AbstractThe Eurasian region is an important area for Indonesia in term of geopolitic and geostrategy. Due to the economic potential of EAEU countries, Indonesia must take advantage of it. This study aims to determine the potential competitiveness of commodities and the impact of trade cooperation between Indonesia-EAEU. Methods used in this study were Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model utilizing basic data of GTAP version 9 of six simulations. By using TCI method it was found that the comformity level of EAEU's export to Indonesia's import structure is higher than Indonesia's exports to the EAEU import structure. Looking at the impact of Indonesia-EAEU trade cooperation on Indonesia’s economy, tariff reduction of 50% for all Indonesian products and EAEU is the best policy alternative for Indonesia. Therefore, It is a must to Indonesia to explore the possibility of cooperation with EAEU with a 50% elimination scheme gradually to all tariff lines. Indonesia should also focus on commodities which have competitiveness in EAEU market i.e. animal; vegetable; foodstuffs; plastics/rubber; raw hides; woods; textile; stone/glass; machinery; and transportation.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF INTEGRATING DIRECT CASH AID INTO FUEL SUBSIDY REMOVAL IN THE DOMESTIC COMMODITY MARKET IN MALAYSIA USING COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Loo Sze Ying ◽  
Mukaramah Harun
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Complete Removal ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Consumer Expenditure ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Future Economic Development ◽  
The Impact

Direct cash aid has been introduced to protect the poor from the impact of rising fuel prices in efforts to remove subsidies in Malaysia. Thus, this paper is aimed at evaluating the changes in prices and quantities of consumer commodities produced by 17 sectors in response to the integration of direct cash aid into fuel subsidy removal. Specifically, the direct cash aid was a reallocation of saved resources through the complete removal of fuel subsidy. This study was carried out using the Lofgren-based computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, by simulating the before and after imposition of fiscal integration. With the withdrawal of government fuel subsidy, the findings showed that recipients of the cash aid tended to spend on basic necessities such as food and beverages, and petrol (for individual vehicle consumption). Nonetheless, the sudden increase in consumer expenditure led to higher consumer prices as current supplies was unable to catch up with increase in demand. Thus, it is advisable to have other effective, concurrent development programs to stimulate future economic development. Keywords:  Fuel subsidy removal, Direct cash aid, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.

scholarly journals The Strategy of the Eurasian Economic Union Extra-Regional Integration

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 67-77
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Konopelko ◽  
Katarzyna Czerewacz-Filipowicz
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Literature Analysis ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Theoretical Overview ◽  
Critical Literature

The main purpose of the research presented in the article is to answer the question of whether or notthe Eurasian Economic Union has strategic opportunities to initiate integration processes with third countriesand built comparative advantages. The authors identify the channels of its integration with third countries aswell as assess their effectiveness based on the relationship with Vietnam, Singapore, Iran and China. Thefollowing methods were used: a critical literature analysis, an empirical analysis of the official documents, alogical construct method, an analytical theoretical overview of the Eurasian Economic Union external strategy,as well as statistical methods. Subsequently, based on the results obtained, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses,Opportunities, Threats) analysis was carried out. The work diagnoses the main vectors of the EurasianEconomic Union strategy, analyses its institutional extra-regional integration as well as defines the scope andmain channels of the influence of business and logistics on extra-regional integration. The main achievement ofthe research presented in the article is the diagnosis and assessment of the impact channels of EurasianEconomic Union extra-regional integration. The research points out that the organisation has an effective extraregional policy towards very different Eurasian countries and uses many channels of influence.

scholarly journals Contribution of VAT to economic growth: A dynamic CGE analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 26-55
Author(s):  
Jean Luc Erero ◽  
◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
South African ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Dynamic Cge ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium

Aim/purpose–This study sought to assess the impact of an increased historical fixed VAT rate of 14% to the current rate of 15% on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach–The method applied in this study was based on a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the impact of both the VAT rate of 14% and a new rate of 15% on the South African economy. The CGE model has been proven over the years to be a suitable model when evaluating the impact assessment of any shock within an economy. Enhancements were made by the researcher to the direct and indirect tax section of the model, i.e., the direct tax section was disaggregated, such that for both firm and household revenues, a dividend income stream is separated from other income streams. The main reason is to facilitate a detailed analysis of Corporate Income Tax (CIT) and Personal Income Tax (PIT), as well as the latest implemented Dividend Tax (DT).Findings–When VAT was increased from 14% to 15%, the immediate reaction of the shock from the Dynamic CGE model indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.0002% in 2018, but increased by 0.0028% in the following year (2019). The trend continued until 2021, hence the 1% increase in the VAT tax rate will increase the expected forecast of VAT collection by approximately R3.2 billion on average. Research implications/limitations–The findings of this study will be implemented by the South African government, which will use a dynamic CGE model to assess South Africa’s VAT contribution to the economy. The database of the CGE model was limited to the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2015. Originality/value/contribution–The study recommends the use of this method for assessing the impact of tax policy changes to the South African economy. The CGE model seems to be the best model as far as the impact assessment of a shock in the econ-omy is concerned. This will assist the South African authorities with their decision mak-ing regarding future VAT revenue. Keywords: South African Revenue Service (SARS), Value Added tax (VAT), Dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.JEL Classification:H21, C68, E62.

Modelling regional general equilibrium effects and irrigation in Canterbury

Water Policy ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 250-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Alexander Lennox ◽  
Olga Diukanova
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Water Allocation ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Use Values ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Provisional Data ◽  
Modelling Approach

We describe the development of a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the analysis of issues concerning water supply and (re)allocation in Canterbury, New Zealand. Traditionally, water has been seen as an abundant resource, but growing irrigation demands are now outstripping the supply of water and competing with in-stream uses and non-use values. In the longer term, this problem may be exacerbated by climate change, which is predicted to increase water demands and reduce supply in parts of Canterbury. It is important to be able to quantify the impact on the regional economy of changes in water availability and policies and other measures addressing water supply or demand. A particular concern is the current, relatively inflexible, ‘first-come, first-served’ system for water allocation. In this paper, we present some preliminary scenarios focusing on a reduction of irrigation supply and the interaction with changes in rainfall. These results are intended only to illustrate the potential of the modelling approach, not least because the provisional data to which the model is currently calibrated are in many cases dated or incomplete. We discuss how the model and its underlying database may be improved and extended to provide results that are qualitatively robust and policy-relevant.

scholarly journals The Impact of ASEAN Economic Community on the Textile and Clothing Industry in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agustinus Edi Sutarta ◽  
Albertus Girik Allo
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Clothing Industry ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Freedom Of Movement ◽  
Asean Economic Community ◽  
The Impact

ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) has implemented in 2015. Implementation of AEC means there will be freedom of movement of goods, labor, and capital among the members of the AEC. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the implementation of AECs in the textile and clothing (T&C) industry in Indonesia. We used computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with model GTAP version 8 to evaluate this impact. This study showed that the country will enjoy the greatest benefits of the liberalization of the T&C industry of AEC regions are Vietnam, followed by Thailand and Indonesia.

scholarly journals The Competitiveness Issue of the Japanese Economy Under Carbon Pricing: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of 2050

2020 ◽  
pp. 181-196
Author(s):  
Shiro Takeda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Japanese Economy ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Small Impact ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Multiple Scenarios ◽  
Border Adjustment

Abstract Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper investigates the impact of carbon regulations on the Japanese economy. We use an 11-sector, 15-region global dynamic CGE model with a time span from 2011 to 2050. We assume that Japan (along with other developed regions) reduces CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050 and analyze the impact on the Japanese economy. In particular, we consider multiple scenarios of CO2 reduction rates in less developed regions and analyze how changes in CO2 reduction in these regions affect Japan. In addition, we also consider multiple scenarios of the use of a border adjustment policy and analyze its impact. Our simulation results are summarized as follows. First, an 80% CO2 reduction in Japan generates large negative impacts on the Japanese economy in terms of both the macroeconomy and individual sectors. Second, changes in the reduction rates in less developed regions have only a small impact on Japan. Third, the use of border adjustment in Japan has a small impact on the GDP and welfare of Japan overall but a large impact on output in the energy intensive sectors. When future climate change policies in Japan are discussed, much attention is usually paid to climate policy in less developed regions. However, the second result of our analysis suggests that climate change policy in less developed regions has only a small impact on Japan. In addition, the third result indicates that the effectiveness of border adjustment is limited.

scholarly journals DAMPAK SAFEGUARD ATAS IMPOR BENANG TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN: PENDEKATAN MODEL CGE

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-277
Author(s):  
Indri Riesfandiari ◽  
Ario Seno Nugroho ◽  
Imam Tri Wahyudi
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Apparel Industry ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Compensating Variation ◽  
Tax Incentive ◽  
Fiscal Incentive ◽  
Textile And Apparel ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Textile And Apparel Industry

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of safeguard on yarn industry’s output, textile and apparel industry as the upper stream’s output, and economics welfare. Government of Indonesia implement safeguard on yarn from 2019 to 2022, to protect domestic industries from an increased quantities as to cause or threaten serious injury to domestic producers of like or directly competitive products. This study uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) model incorporating Indonesia Input - Output Table year 2016. The study exercised two scenario/simulations:(1) assessing safeguard impact; and (2) assessing combination of safeguard and tax incentive impact. The results showed that safeguard on yarn import decrease import value of yarn, but did not increase yarn’s and its upper stream industry’s output. Safeguard tend to decrease the utility or welfare of the economics. In the other hand, policy combination of safeguard and tax incentive decrease yarn import, but did not impact on upper stream industry’s import. The policy combination also increases yarn industry’s output, and increase the utility or welfare of the economics. Keywords: compensating variation, fiscal incentive, textile and apparel industry, utility, welfare ABSTRAK:  Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dampak safeguard terhadap produktivitas atau output industri benang dan industri tekstil dan produk tekstil sebagai industri hilir, serta dampak safeguard terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat dalam perekonomian. Pemerintah Indonesia menerapkan safeguard atas benang pada tahun 2019 s.d. 2022 sebagai bentuk perlindungan terhadap industri tekstil dalam negeri dari peningkatan impor benang yang menyebabkan, atau dicurigai akan mengakibatkan kerugian serius terhadap industri yang bersangkutan. Penelitian menggunakan computable general equilibrium (CGE) model dengan data Tabel I-O Indonesia tahun 2016. Pengujian dilakukan dalam dua simulasi yaitu: (1) shock berupa penerapan safeguard; (2) kombinasi dari shock berupa penerapan safeguard dan fasilitas fiskal berupa pengurangan penghasilan industri untuk perhitungan pajak penghasilan wajib pajak Badan. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa safeguard menurunkan impor benang, tetapi tidak meningkatkan output domestik dan cenderung menurunkan utilitas/kesejahteraan masyarakat. Safeguard yang dikombinasikan dengan fasilitas pajak penghasilan mampu menurunkan impor, meningkatkan output (walaupun belum sampai tahap ekspor), dan meningkatkan utilitas/kesejahteraan masyarakat. Kata kunci: compensating variation, industri tekstil dan produk tekstil, fiscal incentive, utilitas, kesejahteraan

scholarly journals Constructing the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) To Analyse the Impact of Goods and Services Tax (GST) on Government Revenue and Targeted Household of M40 and B40 in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suriyani Binti Saidi ◽  
Mukaramah Binti Harun ◽  
Norrazman Zaiha Bin Zainol
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Cge Models ◽  
The Impact

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used in economic policy analysis in recent years. The selection of the model is based on the CGE model’s ability to see the effects on sectors, household groups, governments, and even able to see the overall economic impact for a time period. In Malaysia, the issues arise from the impact of policies analysed in the CGE modelling framework have been constrained in part by the completion of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The main purpose of this paper is to propose a new Malaysian CGE model framework to analyse the impact of implementation of GST on government revenue and welfare of targeted household groups of B40 and M40 in Malaysia. The CGE model developed in the present paper is based on more recent data in Malaysian SAM (2014). Then the data was modified to suit with Malaysian CGE for GST, namely the MYGST_CGE model. This paper describes the structure of MYGST_CGE, with 33 activities, 33 commodities, 7 types of labour, and 7 categories of household groups were constructed. The CGE utilized in the present study can be applied to answer questions concerning whether GST implementation would have the trade-off between government revenue and the targeted groups by taking into account the elements of GST such as standard-rate, zero-rate and exempted rate. For the purpose of policy analysis, simulation exercises are conducted using the multi-sectoral, multi-factorial and multi-households approach. Based on the proposed framework model review, the instruments used for measurement of effectiveness and welfare were C-efficiency ratio, regressive, progressive, equivalent variation and simulations. The paper will give an opportunity for future research work in a related area.  

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