Survey-based Analysis of the 2021 Seoul Mayoral by-Election: The Vote Choice Determinants and their Implications for the 2022 Presidential Election

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 71-97
Author(s):  
Jun Young Choi ◽  
Junseok Kim ◽  
Bon Sang Koo
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Vote Choice

Attitudes toward Mormons and Voter Behavior in the 2012 Presidential Election

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Hawley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Voter Behavior ◽  
Latter Day Saints ◽  
Active Member ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Church

AbstractPrior to the 2012 presidential election, some commentators speculated that Mitt Romney's status as a devout and active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints would undermine his presidential aspirations. Using the 2012 American National Election Survey, this study examines the relationship between attitudes toward Mormons and voter behavior in the United States in that election year. It finds that attitudes toward Mormons had a statistically-significant effect on turnout — though these effects differed according to party identification. It additionally finds that these attitudes influenced vote choice. In both cases, the substantive effects were small, indicating that anti-Mormon feelings did play a role in the 2012 presidential election, but they did not determine the final outcome.

Spatial Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election

2009 ◽  
Vol 103 (01) ◽  
pp. 59-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
STEPHEN A. JESSEE
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Voting Theory ◽  
Large Role ◽  
Spatial Voting ◽  
Policy Proposals ◽  
Existing Data ◽  
2004 Presidential Election

The theory of spatial voting has played a large role in the development of important results across many areas of political science. Directly testing the foundational assumptions of spatial voting theory, however, has not been possible with existing data. Using a novel survey design, this article obtains estimates of voter ideology on the same scale as candidate positions. The results of this scaling demonstrate that voters possess meaningful ideologies and, furthermore, that these beliefs are strongly related to the sorts of policy proposals considered in Congress. These ideology estimates are then used to uncover the actual relationships between ideology and vote choice for citizens of various types in the 2004 presidential election. Although the choices of independent voters are shown to be largely consistent with the assumptions of spatial voting theory, the decision rules used by partisans differ strongly from what unbiased spatial voting would imply. Although partisans do converge toward the behavior of independents, and hence toward the assumptions of spatial voting theory, as information levels increase, we see that even highly informed partisans show significant differences from what would be implied by unbiased spatial voting theory.

Fairness and Vote Choice in the 1984 Presidential Election

1988 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth A. Rasinski ◽  
Tom R. Tyler
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Vote Choice

Angry, Passionate, and Divided: Undecided Voters and the 2016 Presidential Election

2017 ◽  
Vol 61 (9) ◽  
pp. 1056-1076 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Schill ◽  
Rita Kirk
Keyword(s):  
Focus Group ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
General Election ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Campaign Messages ◽  
Election Coverage ◽  
Civil Discourse ◽  
Voter Choice ◽  
Early Primary

During the primary and general election, researchers Schill and Kirk collected focus group insights on how undecided voters came to make choices in the 2016 election. As consultants for CNN’s election coverage, the team researched voters from across the nation—in the early primary states to the conventions and general election. After a review of factors that influence vote choice, this article focuses on the dominant expressions of attitude (pain, loss, joy, nostalgia, pleasure, belonging, and anger) during 2016 election period and explains how voter attitudes toward those themes affected voter choice. Not only were these themes manifested in (un)civil discourse, they were often fueled by the campaigns. Importantly, these assessments come from the voters themselves and provide insights as to how the campaigns unfolded and how campaign messages attempted to influence voters.

Wanting, and Weighting: White Women and Descriptive Representation in the 2016 Presidential Election

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
White Women ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Descriptive Representation ◽  
Race And Gender ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Group Identities ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Voting Decisions ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis paper demonstrates that the relationship between wanting a descriptive representative based on gender, and giving that attitude weight in voting decisions, is weakest among White women voters. Among under-represented groups of voters, White women were uniquely positioned going into the 2016 presidential election—they had the option to choose “one of their own” in terms of race and gender. Yet, the majority did not vote for the White woman on the ballot, Hillary Rodham Clinton. This outcome is an opportunity to interrogate how descriptive representation functions in different ways across groups with distinct socio-political positions in American politics. I argue that the relationship between desiring descriptive representation, and giving it weight when deciding for whom to vote for, is different across groups. Using American National Election Survey (ANES) data, I show that this is the case in the 2016 election. Nearly two-thirds of White women who said that electing more women is important, voted for Trump. Moreover, White women's espoused belief in the necessity of electing more women had no significant effect on their ultimate vote choice. In contrast, the same desire for increased descriptive representation based on gender had large, positive, and significant effects on women of color's vote choice. This study bears on extant research considering descriptive representation's importance to voters based only on race, or gender, and on the broader literature linking group identities and voter behavior.

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