scholarly journals High Performers = Better Leaders? Probing the Validity of Meritocratic Promotion Strategies to Fill Leader Positions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joyce Elena Schleu ◽  
Stefan Krumm ◽  
Alfred Zerres ◽  
Joachim Hüffmeier
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Employee Performance ◽  
Face Validity ◽  
Job Complexity ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Promotion Strategy ◽  
High Performing ◽  
Performance Requirements ◽  
Leader Performance ◽  
Over Time

Promoting high-performing employees to leadership positions is a pervasive practice and has high face validity. However, little is known about the actual link between employee and subsequent leader performance, as prior results are inconclusive. Given the prevalence of this meritocratic promotion strategy, we conducted a study to address this inconsistency. To account for the diverging results, we (a) competitively tested predictions from different theoretical perspectives (i.e., the performance requirements perspective, the follower-centric perspective, and the Theory of Expert Leadership), (b) considered possible changes in the predictive validity of this strategy over time, and (c) included job complexity as potential moderator of the link between employee and subsequent leader performance. In a high stakes context (i.e., the first German soccer division), we tested the initial predictive validity of employee performance for leader performance immediately following the promotion and the ensuing development over time. Our results suggest a low validity of meritocratic promotion, as we could not find evidence for a link between employee performance and later leader performance—neither initially nor over time, which is consistent with the performance requirements perspective. We, thus, caution against the (sole) application of meritocratic promotion principles.

An Examination of Changes in LSI-R Scores Over Time: Making the Case for Needs-Based Case Management

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 541-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda D. Schlager ◽  
Daniel Pacheco
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Management ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Community Corrections ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Change Scores ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Over Time

The Level of Service Inventory—Revised (LSI-R) is an actuarially derived risk assessment instrument with a demonstrated reputation and record of supportive research. It has shown predictive validity on several offender populations. Although a significant literature has emerged on the validity and use of the LSI-R, no research has specifically examined change scores or the dynamics of reassessment and its importance with respect to case management. Flores, Lowenkamp, Holsinger, and Latessa and Lowenkamp and Bechtel, among others, specifically identify the importance and need to examine LSI-R reassessment scores. The present study uses a sample of parolees ( N = 179) from various community corrections programs that were administered the LSI-R at two different times. Results indicate that both mean composite and subcomponent LSI-R scores statistically significantly decreased between Time 1 and Time 2. The practical, theoretical, and policy implications of these results are discussed.

The Measure of Law

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Bailey ◽  
Forrest Maltzman
Keyword(s):  
Additional Data ◽  
Face Validity ◽  
Preference Change ◽  
Fundamental Challenge ◽  
The Right ◽  
Over Time

This chapter articulates the challenges that any empirically oriented scholar would have in devising a measure of judicial preferences. It shows that it is impossible to make robust across-time comparisons using only Court voting. However, if we incorporate additional data we can create a measure of ideology that meets our needs and has face validity. The estimates we produce accord much better with the general understanding of Court movements over time as they indicate that Nixon's appointees moved the Court modestly to the right but that the Court remained quite moderate in historical terms in the early 1970s. The fundamental challenge is that it is hard to separate preference change from agenda change.

Analysis and Decision

2019 ◽  
pp. 161-186
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

This chapter explains how decision makers can incorporate assessments of uncertainty into high-stakes foreign policy choices. It begins by describing a simple analytic tool called break-even analysis, with which leaders can use explicit probability assessments as a point of leverage for determining whether or not a risky decision is worthwhile. The chapter then explains how transparent probabilistic reasoning is especially important for assessing strategic progress. In some cases, it can actually be impossible to make rigorous judgments about the extent to which foreign policies are making acceptable progress without assessing subjective probabilities in detail. This argument departs from a large body of existing scholarship on learning in international politics that assumes leaders can use a straightforward logic of trial and error to determine how they should update their strategic perceptions over time. The chapter provides examples of these dynamics drawn from the U.S. occupation of Iraq.

Keys to Effective Communication in All Circumstances

2019 ◽  
pp. 27-42
Author(s):  
Kirsten J. Broadfoot ◽  
Todd A. Guth
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Processing ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Patient Needs ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Communication Practices ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Patient Stories ◽  
Over Time

Emergency departments (EDs), with their high degree of interruption, evolving and often incoherent patient stories, and multiple patient needs, strain practitioner cognitive processing over time, forcing a reliance on default communication approaches and pattern recognition. This shift to scripted, routinized, and default approaches to interaction in the ED reduces situational awareness, impacting providers’ ability to respond appropriately to the person and story in front of them and their clinical decision making. However, being able to rapidly and effectively adapt to circumstances is essential for high-functioning providers in emergency department settings. Although solid, learned fundamental communication checklists can suffice in straightforward, low-stakes, or routine individual and team encounters, complicated, high-stakes, or unusual circumstances or situations require effective communicators to move beyond habituated communication practices to those that enable providers to appropriately interpret and adapt to circumstances while respecting self, others, and context.

scholarly journals A Rasch Model and Rating System for Continuous Responses Collected in Large-Scale Learning Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Deonovic ◽  
Maria Bolsinova ◽  
Timo Bechger ◽  
Gunter Maris
Keyword(s):  
Rasch Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Learning Systems ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Continuous Variables ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Continuous Responses ◽  
Anytime Learning ◽  
Cold Start Problem ◽  
Over Time

An extension to a rating system for tracking the evolution of parameters over time using continuous variables is introduced. The proposed rating system assumes a distribution for the continuous responses, which is agnostic to the origin of the continuous scores and thus can be used for applications as varied as continuous scores obtained from language testing to scores derived from accuracy and response time from elementary arithmetic learning systems. Large-scale, high-stakes, online, anywhere anytime learning and testing inherently comes with a number of unique problems that require new psychometric solutions. These include (1) the cold start problem, (2) problem of change, and (3) the problem of personalization and adaptation. We outline how our proposed method addresses each of these problems. Three simulations are carried out to demonstrate the utility of the proposed rating system.

To Screen or not to Screen: Criterion-Related Validity of Math and Reading Curriculum-Based Measurement in Relation to High-Stakes Math Scores

2020 ◽  
pp. 073428292095014
Author(s):  
Giancarlo A. Anselmo ◽  
Jamie L. Yarbrough ◽  
Van Vi N. Tran
Keyword(s):  
Early Literacy ◽  
Student Performance ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Math Application ◽  
Reading Ability ◽  
Literacy Skills ◽  
Curriculum Based Measurement ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Calculation Skills ◽  
Math Test

This study analyzed the relationship between benchmark scores from the newly published Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills Math (i.e., Acadience™) math probes and student performance on math and reading sections of a state-mandated high-stakes test. Participants were 420 students enrolled in third, fourth, and fifth grades in a rural southeastern school district. Specific to this study was the calculation of the predictive validity of benchmark scores obtained in the spring from curriculum-based measurement probes measuring math computation, math application skills, and reading ability. Results of the study suggest that math application probes have strong predictive validity. The study also provides evidence that even at early grades the skill of reading is associated with performance on a high-stakes math test. The study provides some evidence that calculation skills are needed, but do not account for as much of the variance as reading ability does in grades as low as third grade. Implications for practice are discussed as it relates to multiple gating screening procedures at the elementary level.

Assessing the predictive validity of cultural intelligence over time

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colleen Ward ◽  
Jessie Wilson ◽  
Ronald Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Cultural Intelligence ◽  
Over Time

High-Stakes Testing: Worth the Price?

1997 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 345-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen P. Gordon ◽  
Marianne Reese
Keyword(s):  
School Districts ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
High Stakes Testing ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
High Performing Schools ◽  
High Performing ◽  
Depth Data ◽  
Negative Side Effects ◽  
Learning School ◽  
Texas School Districts

The Texas Assessment of Academic Skills (TAAS) is a classic case of the high-stakes test, accompanied by rewards for high performing schools and sanctions for lower performing schools. In this study, over 100 teachers from Texas school districts completed open-ended surveys on how they prepare students for TAAS and the effects of the test on students, teachers, and schools. Twenty of the survey respondents engaged in interviews to gather in-depth data on their perceptions of TAAS. Results provide preliminary indications that, for many schools, high-stakes testing has become the object rather than the measure of teaching and learning, with negative side effects on curriculum, teacher decision making, instruction, student learning, school climate, and teacher and student self-concept and motivation.

Reliability and Predictive Validity of Dental Arch Relationships Using the 5-Year-Olds’ Index and the GOSLON Yardstick to Determine Facial Growth

2020 ◽  
pp. 105566562096097
Author(s):  
Marie Pegelow ◽  
Sara Rizell ◽  
Agneta Karsten ◽  
Hans Mark ◽  
Jan Lilja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Cleft Lip ◽  
Cleft Lip And Palate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Dental Arch ◽  
Facial Growth ◽  
Prediction Rate ◽  
Group 3 ◽  
Over Time

Aims: To determine reliability and predictive validity of the 5-year-olds’(5YO) Index and GOSLON Yardstick in 119 patients born with unilateral cleft lip and palate at 5, 7/8, 10, 15/16, and 19 years. Methods: Five hundred thirty-four dental study models were appraised by 2 teams in 2 centers, twice in each center. Intrateam and interteam reliability in scoring the models was calculated using κ. Dental arch prediction rates were calculated as the proportion of models remaining in the same category (good–scores 1 and 2; fair–score 3; poor–scores 4 and 5) over time. Results: Intrateam and interteam κ statistics ranged from 0.74 to 0.89 and from 0.74 to 0.81, respectively. The 5YO Index and GOSLON Yardstick at 5 years produced almost identical results. The prediction rate of 19-year-old (n = 106) outcome was >80% for those in groups 1 and 2 at 5 years, while for those in groups 4 and 5 prediction was poor (<40%). Prediction of groups 4 and 5 remained poor until 10 years when it increased to 77%. At 15/16 years prediction rate was 93% for those in groups 4 and 5. Prediction of cases in group 3 was very poor at all ages. Conclusions: These results question the predictive value of “poor” dental arch relationships before 10 years of age. However, the predictive value of “good” dental arch relationship scores over time is good in all age groups. This has implications for audit policies to predict facial growth outcomes.

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