scholarly journals Modeling poultry and maize sector interactions in Southern Africa under a changing climate

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Mensah ◽  
Dolapo Enahoro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Equilibrium ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Poultry Products ◽  
Alternative Future ◽  
Livestock Markets ◽  
Policy Application

•This study explores how regional-level interactions of livestock and crop sectors influence the capacity of a southern Africa sub-region to meet its future demand for livestock-derived foods. •It uses a spatial equilibrium modeling framework to simulate regional trade in poultry and maize products in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia. •Model outputs on the demand, production, and trade of poultry products and maize are compared for a baseline and an alternative future scenario representing drought conditions.•The study’s abstraction of a regional approach to livestock and feed sector interactions in the selected region highlights the role of markets in addressing cross-boundary challenges related to food demand expansion and resource management.•Results imply that the study countries could benefit from addressing their growing demands for livestock-derived foods using a harmonized approach. Further, regional livestock markets may offer cushioning effects to the impacts of climate change in at least one of the countries.•However, improved quality data and an enhanced specification of the analytical model to better account for the nuances of livestock and feed trade in the region and for varied scenarios of future climate change will be needed, to extend the current study to practical policy application.

Storms and heat limit the nest success of Bank Cormorants: implications of future climate change for a surface-nesting seabird in southern Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 153 (2) ◽  
pp. 441-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard B. Sherley ◽  
Katrin Ludynia ◽  
Les G. Underhill ◽  
Rian Jones ◽  
Jessica Kemper
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Nest Success ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

scholarly journals Protecting endemic seed plants on the Tibetan Plateau under future climate change: migration matters

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 962-971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujing Yan ◽  
Zhiyao Tang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Seed Plants ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Current Conservation ◽  
Projected Range ◽  
Significant Difference

Abstract Aims Climate change in the near future may become a major threat to high-altitude endemics by greatly altering their distribution. Our aims are to (i) assess the potential impacts of future climate change on the diversity and distribution of seed plants endemic to the Tibetan Plateau and (ii) evaluate the conservation effectiveness of the current National Nature Reserves (NNRs) in protecting the endemic plants in the face of climate change. Methods We projected range shifts of 993 endemic species to the years 2050 and 2070 under two representative concentration pathway scenarios using an ensemble species distribution modeling framework and evaluated range loss, species-richness change and coverage of the current conservation network considering two dispersal scenarios. Important Findings In a full-dispersal scenario, 72–81% of the species would expand their distribution by 2070, but 6–20% of the species would experience >30% range loss. Most species would shift to the west. The projected species net richness would increase across the region on average. In a no-dispersal scenario, 15–59% of the species would lose >30% of their current habitat by 2070. Severe species loss may occur in the southeastern and the eastern peripheral plateau. Seventeen percent of species ranges are covered by the NNRs on average and may increase in the future if species disperse freely. We found a significant difference of species redistribution patterns between different dispersal scenarios and highlighted the importance of migration in this region.

scholarly journals Warming Water in Arctic Terrestrial Rivers under Climate Change

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1983-1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hotaek Park ◽  
Yasuhiro Yoshikawa ◽  
Daqing Yang ◽  
Kazuhiro Oshima
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Channel Network ◽  
Arctic Rivers

Abstract Recent years have seen an obvious warming trend in the Arctic. Streamflow and water temperature Tw are important parameters representing the changes of Arctic rivers under climate change. However, few quantitative assessments of changes in river Tw have been conducted at the pan-Arctic scale. To carry out such an assessment, this study used a modeling framework combining a land process model [the coupled hydrological and biogeochemical model (CHANGE)] with models of river discharge Q, ice cover, and Tw dynamics. The Tw model was improved by incorporating heat exchange at the air–water interface and heat advection from upstream through the channel network. The model was applied to pan-Arctic terrestrial rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean over the period 1979–2013 and quantitatively assessed trends of Tw at regional and pan-Arctic scales. The simulated Tw values were consistent with observations at the mouths of major pan-Arctic rivers. The model simulations indicated a warming trend of Tw by 0.16°C decade−1 at the outlets of the pan-Arctic rivers, including widespread spatial warming consistent with increased air temperature Ta. The strong impact of Ta on Tw was verified by model sensitivity analysis based on various scenarios involving changes in the Ta and Q forcings. Finally, this study demonstrated the warming of Tw in Arctic rivers induced by Ta warming, suggesting the potential for warming Tw of Arctic rivers under future climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bangshuai Han ◽  
Shawn G. Benner ◽  
Alejandro N. Flores
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Rights ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
Biophysical Processes ◽  
Intensively Managed ◽  
Semi Arid

Abstract. In semiarid and arid regions with intensively managed water supplies, water scarcity is a product of interactions between complex biophysical processes and human activities. Evaluating water scarcity under climate change necessitates modeling how these coupled processes interact and redistribute waters in the system under alternative climate conditions. A particular challenge on the climate input lies in adequately capturing the plausible range of variability of future climate change along with central tendencies. This study generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations by combining a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model projections. Three climate change scenario groups, reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 conditions, are developed. A modeling framework is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling platform to 1) explicitly capture the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights; and 2) project water scarcity patterns under climate change. The study area is the Treasure Valley, an irrigation-intensive semi-arid human-environment system. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature. The projected increase in temperature has a significant influence on the increase of the allocated and unsatisfied irrigation amount. Projected changes in precipitation produce more modest responses. The scenarios identify spatially distinct areas more sensitive to water scarcity, highlight the importance of climate change as a driver of scarcity, and identify potential shortcomings of the current water management. The approach of creating climate ensembles overcomes deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations.

What we can learn from the parallels between the COVID-19 and the future climate change crises

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubén D. Manzanedo ◽  
Peter Manning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Substantial Portion ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
The Future ◽  
Behavioral Norm ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
Global Population

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 1.6+ million confirmed cases and 100 000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have put a substantial portion of the global population under confinement, imposed isolation, and established ‘social distancing’ as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, while also threatening the health of the global economy. This crisis offers also an unprecedented view of what the global climate crisis may look like. In fact, some of the parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the looming global climate emergency are remarkable. Reflecting upon the most challenging aspects of today’s crisis and how they compare with those expected from the climate change emergency may help us better prepare for the future.

Responses of Irish Vegetation to Future Climate Change

2006 ◽  
Vol 106 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael B. Jones ◽  
Alison Donnelly ◽  
Fabrizio Albanito
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

Future climate change and its impacts over small island states

2002 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 179-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Lal ◽  
H Harasawa ◽  
K Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Island States ◽  
Small Island States
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