scholarly journals What Predicts Corruption?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuele Colonnelli ◽  
Jorge Gallego ◽  
Mounu Prem
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
Machine Learning Models

The ability to predict corruption is crucial to policy. Using rich micro-data from Brazil, we show that multiple machine learning models display high levels of performance in predicting municipality-level corruption in public spending. We then quantify which individual municipality features and groups of similar characteristics have the highest predictive power. We find that measures of private sector activity, financial development, and human capital are the strongest predictors of corruption, while public sector and political features play a secondary role. Our findings have implications for the design and cost-effectiveness of various anti-corruption policies.

scholarly journals Predicting which genes will respond to perturbations of a TF: TF-independent properties of genes are major determinants of their responsiveness

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiming Kang ◽  
Michael Brent
Keyword(s):  
Gene Expression ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Yeast Cells ◽  
Expression Level ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Histone Marks ◽  
Expression Variation ◽  
Location Data ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Background: The ability to predict which genes will respond to perturbation of a TF's activity serves as a benchmark for our systems-level understanding of transcriptional regulatory networks. In previous work, machine learning models have been trained to predict static gene expression levels in a given sample by using data from the same or similar conditions, including data on TF binding locations, histone marks, or DNA sequence. We report on a different challenge -- training machine learning models that can predict which genes will respond to perturbation of a TF without using any data from the perturbed cells. Results: Existing TF location data (ChIP-Seq) from human K562 cells have no detectable utility for predicting which genes will respond to perturbation of the TF, but data obtained by newer methods in yeast cells are useful. TF-independent features of genes, including their preperturbation expression level and expression variation, are very useful for predicting responses to TF perturbations. This shows that some genes are poised to respond to TF perturbations and others are resistant, shedding significant light on why it has been so difficult to predict responses from binding locations. Certain histone marks (HMs), including H3K4me1 and H3K4me3, have some predictive power, especially when downstream of the transcription start site. In human, the predictive power of HMs is much less than that of gene expression level and variation. Code is available at https://github.com/yiming-kang/TFPertRespExplainer. Conclusions: Sequence-based or epigenetic properties of genes strongly influence their tendency to respond to direct TF perturbations, partially explaining the oft-noted difficulty of predicting responsiveness from TF binding location data. These molecular features are largely reflected in and summarized by the gene's expression level and expression variation.

scholarly journals An open-source framework for fast-yet-accurate calculation of quantum mechanical features

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eike Caldeweyher ◽  
Christoph Bauer ◽  
Ali Soltani Tehrani
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Quantum Mechanical ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Molecular Fingerprints ◽  
Open Source Framework ◽  
Molecular Polarizabilities ◽  
Machine Learning Models

We present the open-source framework kallisto that enables the efficient and robust calculation of quantum mechanical features for atoms and molecules. For a benchmark set of 49 experimental molecular polarizabilities, the predictive power of the presented method competes against second-order perturbation theory in a converged atomic-orbital basis set at a fraction of its computational costs. Robustness tests within a diverse validation set of more than 80,000 molecules show that the calculation of isotropic molecular polarizabilities has a low failure-rate of only 0.3 %. We present furthermore a generally applicable van der Waals radius model that is rooted on atomic static polarizabilites. Efficiency tests show that such radii can even be calculated for small- to medium-size proteins where the largest system (SARS-CoV-2 spike protein) has 42,539 atoms. Following the work of Domingo-Alemenara et al. [Domingo-Alemenara et al., Nat. Comm., 2019, 10, 5811], we present computational predictions for retention times for different chromatographic methods and describe how physicochemical features improve the predictive power of machine-learning models that otherwise only rely on two-dimensional features like molecular fingerprints. Additionally, we developed an internal benchmark set of experimental super-critical fluid chromatography retention times. For those methods, improvements of up to 17 % are obtained when combining molecular fingerprints with physicochemical descriptors. Shapley additive explanation values show furthermore that the physical nature of the applied features can be retained within the final machine-learning models. We generally recommend the kallisto framework as a robust, low-cost, and physically motivated featurizer for upcoming state-of-the-art machine-learning studies.

scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Approach for Automated Severity Assessment of COVID-19 Based on Clinical and Imaging Data: Retrospective Study

10.2196/24572 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. e24572
Author(s):  
Juan Carlos Quiroz ◽  
You-Zhen Feng ◽  
Zhong-Yuan Cheng ◽  
Dana Rezazadegan ◽  
Ping-Kang Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Imaging Features ◽  
Severity Assessment ◽  
Imaging Data ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Background COVID-19 has overwhelmed health systems worldwide. It is important to identify severe cases as early as possible, such that resources can be mobilized and treatment can be escalated. Objective This study aims to develop a machine learning approach for automated severity assessment of COVID-19 based on clinical and imaging data. Methods Clinical data—including demographics, signs, symptoms, comorbidities, and blood test results—and chest computed tomography scans of 346 patients from 2 hospitals in the Hubei Province, China, were used to develop machine learning models for automated severity assessment in diagnosed COVID-19 cases. We compared the predictive power of the clinical and imaging data from multiple machine learning models and further explored the use of four oversampling methods to address the imbalanced classification issue. Features with the highest predictive power were identified using the Shapley Additive Explanations framework. Results Imaging features had the strongest impact on the model output, while a combination of clinical and imaging features yielded the best performance overall. The identified predictive features were consistent with those reported previously. Although oversampling yielded mixed results, it achieved the best model performance in our study. Logistic regression models differentiating between mild and severe cases achieved the best performance for clinical features (area under the curve [AUC] 0.848; sensitivity 0.455; specificity 0.906), imaging features (AUC 0.926; sensitivity 0.818; specificity 0.901), and a combination of clinical and imaging features (AUC 0.950; sensitivity 0.764; specificity 0.919). The synthetic minority oversampling method further improved the performance of the model using combined features (AUC 0.960; sensitivity 0.845; specificity 0.929). Conclusions Clinical and imaging features can be used for automated severity assessment of COVID-19 and can potentially help triage patients with COVID-19 and prioritize care delivery to those at a higher risk of severe disease.

scholarly journals Severity Assessment of COVID-19 based on Clinical and Imaging Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Quiroz ◽  
Youzhen Feng ◽  
Zhongyuan Cheng ◽  
Dana Rezazadegan ◽  
Pingkang Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Imaging Features ◽  
Severity Assessment ◽  
Imaging Data ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Combined Features ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Objectives This study aims to develop a machine learning approach for automated severity assessment of COVID-19 patients based on clinical and imaging data. Materials and Methods Clinical data, including demographics, signs, symptoms, comorbidities and blood test results and chest CT scans of 346 patients from two hospitals in the Hubei province, China, were used to develop machine learning models for automated severity assessment of diagnosed COVID-19 cases. We compared the predictive power of clinical and imaging data by testing multiple machine learning models, and further explored the use of four oversampling methods to address the imbalance distribution issue. Features with the highest predictive power were identified using the SHAP framework. Results Targeting differentiation between mild and severe cases, logistic regression models achieved the best performance on clinical features (AUC:0.848, sensitivity:0.455, specificity:0.906), imaging features (AUC:0.926, sensitivity:0.818, specificity:0.901) and the combined features (AUC:0.950, sensitivity:0.764, specificity:0.919). The SMOTE oversampling method further improved the performance of the combined features to AUC of 0.960 (sensitivity:0.845, specificity:0.929). Discussion Imaging features had the strongest impact on the model output, while a combination of clinical and imaging features yielded the best performance overall. The identified predictive features were consistent with findings from previous studies. Oversampling yielded mixed results, although it achieved the best performance in our study. Conclusions This study indicates that clinical and imaging features can be used for automated severity assessment of COVID-19 patients and have the potential to assist with triaging COVID-19 patients and prioritizing care for patients at higher risk of severe cases. [Manuscript last updated on 31 July, 2020]

scholarly journals Machine learning approach for predicting under-five mortality determinants in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey

Genus ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fikrewold H. Bitew ◽  
Samuel H. Nyarko ◽  
Lloyd Potter ◽  
Corey S. Sparks
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Health Survey ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Demographic And Health Survey ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Under Five ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract There is a dearth of literature on the use of machine learning models to predict important under-five mortality risks in Ethiopia. In this study, we showed spatial variations of under-five mortality and used machine learning models to predict its important sociodemographic determinants in Ethiopia. The study data were drawn from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. We used three machine learning models such as random forests, logistic regression, and K-nearest neighbors as well as one traditional logistic regression model to predict under-five mortality determinants. For each machine learning model, measures of model accuracy and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the predictive power of each model. The descriptive results show that there are considerable regional variations in under-five mortality rates in Ethiopia. The under-five mortality prediction ability was found to be between 46.3 and 67.2% for the models considered, with the random forest model (67.2%) showing the best performance. The best predictive model shows that household size, time to the source of water, breastfeeding status, number of births in the preceding 5 years, sex of a child, birth intervals, antenatal care, birth order, type of water source, and mother’s body mass index play an important role in under-five mortality levels in Ethiopia. The random forest machine learning model produces a better predictive power for estimating under-five mortality risk factors and may help to improve policy decision-making in this regard. Childhood survival chances can be improved considerably by using these important factors to inform relevant policies.

scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Approach for Automated Severity Assessment of COVID-19 Based on Clinical and Imaging Data: Retrospective Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Carlos Quiroz ◽  
You-Zhen Feng ◽  
Zhong-Yuan Cheng ◽  
Dana Rezazadegan ◽  
Ping-Kang Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Imaging Features ◽  
Severity Assessment ◽  
Imaging Data ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Machine Learning Models

BACKGROUND COVID-19 has overwhelmed health systems worldwide. It is important to identify severe cases as early as possible, such that resources can be mobilized and treatment can be escalated. OBJECTIVE This study aims to develop a machine learning approach for automated severity assessment of COVID-19 based on clinical and imaging data. METHODS Clinical data—including demographics, signs, symptoms, comorbidities, and blood test results—and chest computed tomography scans of 346 patients from 2 hospitals in the Hubei Province, China, were used to develop machine learning models for automated severity assessment in diagnosed COVID-19 cases. We compared the predictive power of the clinical and imaging data from multiple machine learning models and further explored the use of four oversampling methods to address the imbalanced classification issue. Features with the highest predictive power were identified using the Shapley Additive Explanations framework. RESULTS Imaging features had the strongest impact on the model output, while a combination of clinical and imaging features yielded the best performance overall. The identified predictive features were consistent with those reported previously. Although oversampling yielded mixed results, it achieved the best model performance in our study. Logistic regression models differentiating between mild and severe cases achieved the best performance for clinical features (area under the curve [AUC] 0.848; sensitivity 0.455; specificity 0.906), imaging features (AUC 0.926; sensitivity 0.818; specificity 0.901), and a combination of clinical and imaging features (AUC 0.950; sensitivity 0.764; specificity 0.919). The synthetic minority oversampling method further improved the performance of the model using combined features (AUC 0.960; sensitivity 0.845; specificity 0.929). CONCLUSIONS Clinical and imaging features can be used for automated severity assessment of COVID-19 and can potentially help triage patients with COVID-19 and prioritize care delivery to those at a higher risk of severe disease.

Improving XGBoost with Imagination Sampling

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-6
Author(s):  
Eric Holloway
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
General System ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Imagination Sampling is the usage of a person as an oracle for generating or improving machine learning models. Previous work demonstrated a general system for using Imagination Sampling for obtaining multibox models. Here, the possibility of importing such models as the starting point for further automatic enhancement is explored.

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