Use of Unofficial Newspaper Data for COVID-19 Death Surveillance

Objective. To highlight the critical importance of unofficially reported newspaper-based deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)–like illness (CLI) together with officially confirmed death counts to support improvements in COVID-19 death surveillance.Methods. Both hospital-based official COVID-19 and unofficial CLI death counts were collected from daily newspapers between March 8 and August 22, 2020. We performed both exploratory and time-series analyses to understand the influence of combining newspaper-based CLI death counts with confirmed hospital death counts on the trends and forecasting of COVID-19 death counts. An autoregressive integrated moving average–based approach was used to forecast the number of weekly death counts for six weeks ahead.Results. Between March 8 and August 22, 2020, 2,156 CLI deaths were recorded based on newspaper reporting for a count that was 55% of the officially confirmed death count (n = 3,907). This shows that newspaper reports tend to cover a significant number of COVID-19 related deaths. Our forecast also indicates an approximate total of 406 CLI expected for the six weeks ahead, which could contribute to a total of 2,413 deaths including 2,007 confirmed deaths expected from August 23 to October 3, 2020.Conclusions. Analyzing existing trends in and forecasting the expected number of newspaper-based CLI deaths indicates yet-unreported COVID-19 death counts, which could be a critical source to estimate provisional COVID-19 death counts and mortality surveillance.Public Health Implications. Considering unofficial newspaper-based CLI death counts is essential to identify COVID-19 death severity and surveillance needs to advance public health research efforts to prepare appropriate response strategies for low- and middle-income countries.

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Use of Unofficial Newspaper Data for COVID-19 Death Surveillance

10.1101/2020.09.09.20191569 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mazbahul G Ahamad ◽

Monir U Ahmed ◽

Byomkesh Talukder ◽

Fahian Tanin

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Moving Average ◽

Public Health Research ◽

Hospital Death ◽

Middle Income ◽

Daily Newspapers ◽

Response Strategies ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Time Series Analyses ◽

Newspaper Data

Objective. To highlight the critical importance of unofficially reported newspaper-based deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) like illness (CLI) together with officially confirmed death counts to support improvements in COVID 19 death surveillance. Methods. Both hospital-based official COVID 19 and unofficial CLI death counts were collected from daily newspapers between March 8 and August 22, 2020. We performed both exploratory and time-series analyses to understand the influence of combining newspaper-based CLI death counts with confirmed hospital death counts on the trends and forecasting of COVID-19 death counts. An autoregressive integrated moving average based approach was used to forecast the number of weekly death counts for six weeks ahead. Results. Between March 8 and August 22, 2020, 2,156 CLI deaths were recorded based on newspaper reporting for a count that was 55% of the officially confirmed death count (n = 3,907). This shows that newspaper reports tend to cover a significant number of COVID-19 related deaths. Our forecast also indicates an approximate total of 406 CLI expected for the six weeks ahead, which could contribute to a total of 2,413 deaths including 2,007 confirmed deaths expected from August 23 to October 3, 2020. Conclusions. Analyzing existing trends in and forecasting the expected number of newspaper based CLI deaths indicates yet-unreported COVID-19 death counts, which could be a critical source to estimate provisional COVID 19 death counts and mortality surveillance. Public Health Implications. Considering unofficial newspaper-based CLI death counts is essential to identify COVID-19 death severity and surveillance needs to advance public health research efforts to prepare appropriate response strategies for low- and middle-income countries.

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Excess Out-Of-Hospital Mortality and Declining Oxygen Saturation: The Sentinel Role of EMS Data in the COVID-19 Crisis in Tijuana, Mexico

10.1101/2020.05.13.20098186 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Joseph Friedman ◽

Alheli Calderon-Villarreal ◽

Ietza Bojorquez ◽

Carlos Vera Hernandez ◽

David Schriger ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hospital Mortality ◽

Oxygen Saturation ◽

Hospital Death ◽

Low Oxygen ◽

Time Data ◽

Middle Income ◽

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Hospital Deaths ◽

The Difference

Objective: Emergency medical services (EMS) may serve as a key source of real-time data about the evolving health of COVID-19 affected populations, especially in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) with less rapid and reliable vital statistic registration systems. Although official COVID-19 statistics in Mexico report almost exclusively in-hospital mortality events, excess out-of-hospital mortality has been identified in other settings, including one EMS study in Italy that showed a 58% increase. EMS and hospital reports from several countries have suggested that silent hypoxemia--low oxygen saturation (SpO2) in the absence of dyspnea--is associated with COVID-19 outbreaks. It is unclear, however, how these phenomena can be generalized to LMICs. We assess how EMS data can be used in a sentinel capacity in Tijuana, a city on the Mexico-United States border with earlier exposure to COVID-19 than many LMIC settings. Methods: We calculated numbers of weekly out-of-hospital deaths and respiratory cases seen by EMS in Tijuana, and estimate the difference between peak-epidemic rates (during April 14th-May 11th) and forecasted 2014-2019 trends. Results were compared with official COVID-19 statistics, stratified by neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES), and examined for changing demographic or clinical features, including mean (SpO2). Results: An estimated 194.7 (95%CI: 135.5-253.9) excess out-of-hospital deaths events occurred, representing an increase of 145% (70%-338%) compared to forecasted trends. During the same window, only 8 COVID-19-positive, out-of-hospital deaths were reported in official statistics. This corresponded with a rise in respiratory cases of 274% (119%-1142%), and a drop in mean SpO2 to 77.7%, from 90.2% at baseline. The highest out-of-hospital death rates were observed in low-SES areas, although respiratory cases were more concentrated in high-SES areas. Conclusions: EMS systems may play an important sentinel role in monitoring excess out-of-hospital mortality and other trends during the COVID-19 crisis in LMICs. Using EMS data, we observed increases in out-of-hospital deaths in Tijuana that were nearly threefold greater magnitude than increases reported using EMS data in Italy. Increased testing in out-of-hospital settings may be required to determine if excess mortality is being driven by COVID-19 infection, health system saturation, or patient avoidance of healthcare. We also found evidence of worsening rates of hypoxemia among respiratory patients seen by EMS, suggesting a rise in silent hypoxemia, which should be met with increased detection and clinical management efforts. Finally, we observed that social disparities in out-of-hospital death that warrant monitoring and amelioration.

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Better Late Than Never?! Five Compelling Reasons for Putting Physical Activity in Low- and Middle-Income Countries High Up on the Public Health Research Agenda

Journal of Physical Activity and Health ◽

10.1123/jpah.2021-0576 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-2

Author(s):

Katja Siefken ◽

Andrea Varela Ramirez ◽

Temo Waqanivalu ◽

Nico Schulenkorf

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Physical Activity ◽

Health Research ◽

Research Agenda ◽

Public Health Research ◽

Noncommunicable Diseases ◽

Middle Income ◽

The Public ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Low And Middle Income

Since 2020, the world has been navigating an epidemiologic transition with both infectious diseases (COVID-19) and noncommunicable diseases intertwined in complex and diverse ways. In fact, the pandemics of physical inactivity, noncommunicable diseases, and COVID-19 coincide in a tragically impactful ménage à trois with their detrimental long-term health consequences yet to be determined. We know that people in low- and middle-income countries not only have the highest risk of developing chronic diseases, they also develop the diseases at a younger age, they suffer longer, and they die earlier than people in high-income countries. This commentary features 5 compelling reasons for putting physical activity in low- and middle-income countries high up on the public health research agenda and calls for more commitment to inclusive and context-specific public health practices that are paired with locally relevant promotion and facilitation of PA practice, research, and policymaking.

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Importance of involving patients and public in health research in Bangladesh and Nepal

International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care ◽

10.1017/s0266462320000811 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-3

Author(s):

Bibha Simkhada ◽

Edwin van Teijlingen ◽

Aliya Naheed ◽

Angela Warren ◽

Sue Green

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Health Research ◽

Public Involvement ◽

Health Sector ◽

Health Technology ◽

Public Health Research ◽

Patient And Public Involvement ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Local Research

Abstract Patient and public involvement/engagement (PPI/E) in public health research and health technology assessment (HTA) in high-income countries (HICs) have significantly increased over the past decade. PPI/E helps to improve research and HTA, ultimately benefitting patients and service users. PPI/E is a very new concept in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This paper considers the importance of PPI in public health research and HTA in the development and implementation of technology in the health sector in South Asia. Currently, in this region, health technology is frequently adopted from HICs without local research and HTA. It also discusses the importance of local co-creation of technology to reflect the needs of users within a culturally appropriate setting. It is important for LMIC-based researchers to understand the potential of PPI/E and how it can contribute to it to improve health care and research, especially perhaps in the era of COVID-19.

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Missed Opportune Children for Immunisation versus Immunisation Defaulters: Why Are They Indistinguishable?

10.20944/preprints202108.0435.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Israel Oluwaseyidayo Idris ◽

Gabriel Omoniyi Ayeni

Keyword(s):

Public Health Research ◽

Current Guideline ◽

Immunisation Coverage ◽

Middle Income ◽

Research And Practice ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

The Subject ◽

Good Coverage ◽

Missed Opportunity ◽

Low And Middle Income

The two major global immunisation agenda framings (Missed Opportunity for Immunisation, MOI vs Immunisation Defaulting) are interchangeably and inappropriately used in public health research and practice with flawed or misleading strategies recommended and adopted in various settings globally. This is evident in the fact that many opportunities to adopt evidence/findings from immunisation coverage research in policy are grossly missed. Ineffectiveness of inappropriate interventions from biased evidence can discourage and mislead the governance to make radical decisions by discretion. This could be the reason for the inability of low-and middle-income countries to vaccinate 80% of their children and otherwise; this also poses a global health threat to capable nations. The current guideline and information on MOI and immunisation defaulting appear insufficient and a little clarification on it would assist forerunners in immunisation to achieve measurable progress in ensuring good coverage especially in low-and middle-income countries. Consequently, this paper is aimed at addressing this issue in immunisation practice with appropriate recommendations. Optimistically, this will stimulate further discussions, streamline differences, and gear global immunisation governance on the subject matter, to achieve the target coverage by 2030 in low-and middle-income countries.

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