scholarly journals Temperature and Precipitation Effects on Birth Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. Thiede ◽  
Sara Ronnkvist ◽  
Anna Armao ◽  
Demi Amideneau ◽  
Katrina Burka
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Sub Saharan

Previous literature on climate change and human population dynamics has mainly focused on how population growth affects greenhouse gas emissions. Much less research has analyzed how climatic variability influences the size of human populations, despite reasonable expectations of such effects. Evidence of climate-fertility linkages, or lack thereof, is needed to refine understandings of adaptive behaviors. It is also needed to refine models of the demographic drivers of greenhouse gas emissions, which tend to assume climatic changes will not feedback to impact population dynamics. We test this relationship using birth histories from 23 sub-Saharan African countries and high-resolution climate data. Our analyses show that exposure to climatic variability is associated with fertility in sub-Saharan Africa, albeit in complex ways. Women exposed to hot-and-dry spells experience significant reductions in the annual probability of fertility, while exposure to above-average temperatures and precipitation is associated with increased fertility over baseline. These associations vary between demographic and geographic groups, revealing important differences in vulnerability and adaptive behavior.

scholarly journals Impacts of intensifying or expanding cereal cropping in sub‐Saharan Africa on greenhouse gas emissions and food security

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 3720-3730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marloes P. Loon ◽  
Renske Hijbeek ◽  
Hein F. M. Berge ◽  
Veronique De Sy ◽  
Guus A. Broeke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Sub Saharan

scholarly journals Greenhouse gas emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa

1990 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.L. Graham ◽  
R.D. Perlack ◽  
A.M.G. Prasad ◽  
J.W. Ranney ◽  
D.B. Waddle
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Sub Saharan

scholarly journals Renewable energy as a factor of sustainable development and regulation of ecological problems in Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 05009
Author(s):  
Liudmila Nefedova ◽  
Alexander Solovyev ◽  
Yulie Rafikova ◽  
Dmitriy Solovyev
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Thermal Power ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Ecological Problems

The analysis of the main directions of renewable energy in Africa, as a factor in sustainable development and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is performed. The ecological problems of the modern and prospective development of the energy complex of African countries are considered. For African countries the issue of ensuring reliable and environmentally friendly access to electricity for the population is extremely acute. It is shown, that the electricity demand for industry in Sub-Saharan Africa the most problematic region is growing on a very large scale. The construction of new large coal-fired thermal power plants in the required volumes will lead to serious environmental and climatic consequences. The study of regional data allowed us to conclude that PV solar systems are of priority importance for increasing people’s access to electricity in rural SubSaharan Africa. Based on numerous materials from international energy structures the estimates and calculations of volumes of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions due to the use of renewable energy sources as an alternative to carbon fuel are carried out. The study has shown that of particularly great importance for reducing CO2 emissions in Kenya is the development of geothermal energy.

scholarly journals Scenario Forecasts of Population Dynamics in Some Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-57
Author(s):  
Yu. V. Zinkina ◽  
S. G. Shulgin
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
African Countries ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
In Infants And Children ◽  
Demographic Growth

Purpose. In Sub-Saharan Africa, UN demographers expect the population to nearly double over the next 30 years (2020–2050), increasing by more than 1 billion people. Demographic changes of such speed and scale will undoubtedly have global implications. The purpose of the work is to calculate a number of scenarios of the demographic future for some countries of the region, taking into account specific features and events of African recent demographic history (in contrast to the UN forecasts). We also aim to assess the difference between various scenarios for each country and the attainability of the “optimistic” scenario.Materials and methods. We develop scenario forecasts for population dynamics in a number of African countries. In all scenarios, mortality dynamics corresponds to the “medium” UN forecast. For the birth rate dynamics, two scenarios were simulated: the optimistic one (birth rate goes from current rates to 2.1 children per woman in 20 years, which was observed in Iran; Rwanda and Ethiopia are more or less close to this scenario) and the inertial one (for countries where birth rate declined in 2005–2015, this decline was simulated to continue at the same rate; for countries where birth rate “froze”, two options were modeled; both projected birth rate decline at 0.1 child per woman annually, either starting immediately or after another 10 years).The results show that all scenarios, even the “optimistic” one, forecast a huge population increase in all countries considered (Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia) over the next 30 years. Slow birth rate decline (or prolonged “stagnation” at high levels) parallel to successful mortality reduction (especially in infants and children) accumulated enormous demographic inertia in many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (to calculate its scope, an additional “provisional” scenario was calculated in the work). The difference between the “inertial” and the “optimistic” reaches the size or even sometimes exceeds the current population of the country. This underlines the importance of the governments’ efforts to curb population growth. Ethiopia proves such efforts.Conclusion. Only in Ethiopia the “inertial” and “optimistic” scenarios almost coincide thanks to demographic growth-reducing efforts undertaken there since the early 1990s; thus, in 2005–2015 the birth rate decreased by 1.3 children per woman. This proves that achieving an “optimistic” scenario is possible in African countries, although with considerable and concentrated efforts.

scholarly journals ATTRICI 1.0 – counterfactual climate for impact attribution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Mengel ◽  
Simon Treu ◽  
Stefan Lange ◽  
Katja Frieler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Impact Events ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Climate has changed over the past century due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In parallel, societies and their environment have evolved rapidly. To identify the impacts of historical climate change on human or natural systems, it is therefore necessary to separate the effect of different drivers. By definition this is done by comparing the observed situation to a counterfactual one in which climate change is absent and other drivers change according to observations. As such a counterfactual baseline cannot be observed it has to be estimated by process-based or empirical models. We here present ATTRICI (ATTRIbuting Climate Impacts), an approach to remove the signal of global warming from observational climate data to generate forcing data for the simulation of a counterfactual baseline of impact indicators. Our method identifies the interannual and annual cycle shifts that are correlated to global mean temperature change. We use quantile mapping to a baseline distribution that removes the global mean temperature related shifts to find counterfactual values for the observed daily climate data. Applied to each variable of two climate datasets, we produce two counterfactual datasets that are made available through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) along with the original datasets. Our method preserves the internal variability of the observed data in the sense that observed (factual) and counterfactual data for a given day remain in the same quantile in their respective statistical distribution. That makes it possible to compare observed impact events and counterfactual impact events. Our approach adjusts for the long-term trends associated with global warming but does not address the attribution of climate change to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals Reviews and syntheses: Greenhouse gas emissions in natural and agricultural lands in sub-Saharan Africa: synthesis of available data and suggestions for further studies

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 16479-16526 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.-G. Kim ◽  
A. D. Thomas ◽  
D. Pelster ◽  
T. S. Rosenstock ◽  
A. Sanz-Cobena
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
N2o Emissions ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Agricultural Lands ◽  
N Application ◽  
Application Rates ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract. This paper summarizes currently available data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from African natural and agricultural lands, outlines the knowledge gaps and suggests future directions and strategies for GHG emission studies. GHG emission data were collected from 73 studies conducted in 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Soil GHG emissions from African natural terrestrial systems ranged from 3.3 to 57.0 Mg carbon dioxide (CO2) ha−1 yr−1, −4.8 to 3.5 kg methane (CH4) ha−1 yr−1 and −0.1 to 13.7 kg nitrous oxide (N2O) ha−1 yr−1. Soil physical and chemical properties, rewetting, vegetation type, forest management and land-use changes were all found to be important factors affecting soil GHG emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions from African aquatic systems ranged from 5.7 to 232.0 Mg CO2 ha−1 yr−1, −26.3 to 2741.9 kg CH4 ha−1 yr−1 and 0.2 to 3.5 kg N2O ha−1 yr−1 and were strongly affected by discharge. Soil GHG emissions from African croplands ranged from 1.7 to 141.2 Mg CO2 ha−1 yr−1, −1.3 to 66.7 kg CH4 ha−1 yr−1and 0.05 to 112.0 kg N2O ha−1 yr−1 and the N2O emission factor (EF) ranged from 0.01 to 4.1 %. Incorporation of crop residues or manure with inorganic fertilizers resulted in significant changes in GHG emissions but these were different for CO2 and N2O. Soil GHG emissions in vegetable gardens ranged from 73.3 to 132.0 Mg CO2 ha−1 yr−1 and 53.4 to 177.6 kg N2O ha−1 yr−1 and N2O EFs ranged from 3 to 4 %. Soil CO2 and N2O emissions from agroforestry were 38.6 Mg CO2 ha−1 yr−1 and 0.2 to 26.7 kg N2O ha−1 yr−1, respectively. Improving fallow with nitrogen (N)-fixing trees increased CO2 and N2O emissions compared to conventional croplands and type and quality of plant residue is likely to be an important control factor affecting N2O emissions. Throughout agricultural lands, N2O emissions slowly increased with N inputs below 150 kg N ha−1 yr−1 and increased exponentially with N application rates up to 300 kg N ha−1 yr−1. The lowest yield-scaled N2O emissions were reported with N application rates ranging between 100 and 150 kg N ha−1. Overall, total CO2 equivalent (eq) emissions from African natural and agricultural lands were 56.9 ± 12.7 Pg CO2 eq yr−1 and natural and agricultural lands contributed 76.3 and 23.7 %, respectively. Additional GHG emission measurements throughout Africa agricultural and natural lands are urgently required to reduce uncertainty on annual GHG emissions from the different land uses and identify major control factors and mitigation options on emissions. There is also a need to develop a common strategy for addressing this data gap that may involve identifying priorities for data acquisition, utilizing appropriate technologies, and establishing networks and collaboration.

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