scholarly journals Developing an Elo-rating System for Criminal Justice Practitioners: A Superior Method for Resource Allocation?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahin Tasharrofi ◽  
J.C. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Elo Rating System ◽  
Pathways To Desistance ◽  
Better Than

Record numbers of inmates are being released to the community for supervision each year. This poses a challenge to the agencies and officers in charge of providing supervision—there are far more offenders in need of supervision than officers can reasonably attend to. This has forced agencies to be innovative in how they allocate their resources. Empirical evidence suggests resources should be allocated to high-risk offenders, but how can officers determine which offender is at a higher risk of misconduct at any given time? Traditionally, this has been achieved by relying on standardized risk assessment. But risk assessment has been criticized for making only marginally better-than-chance predictions of future misconduct. We offer a novel solution by integrating the Elo-rating system into the community supervision decision-making process. We show, by drawing on test data from the Pathways to Desistance Study, that combining the Elo-rating system with traditional risk assessment may lead to increases in predictive power. We then discuss how Elo-rating systems could be used by community supervision agencies to more effectively prioritize their caseloads.

scholarly journals Developing a comprehensive Drift Reduction Technology risk assessment scheme

2014 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Connor Ferguson ◽  
Andrew J. Hewitt ◽  
John A. Eastin ◽  
Robert J. Connell ◽  
Rory L. Roten ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Environmental Stewardship ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Spray Drift ◽  
Spray Application ◽  
Reduction Scheme ◽  
Exposure Risk ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Drift Reduction Technologies (DRTs) are becoming increasingly important for improving spray applications in many countries including New Zealand (NZ). Although there is a growing database on the performance of DRTs, there is no rating system showing the effectiveness of the DRT’s performance. In Europe, DRTs are classified relative to current reference technologies as part of the rating systems used to establish spray drift risk reduction. We have recommended some key elements of such a comprehensive exposure risk reduction scheme for any country, based on prior and on-going research into the performance of specific DRTs in row, tree, and vine crops. Our intention was to create a rating system to determine the effectiveness of a given technology. This rating system would improve spray application practices and environmental stewardship for a wide range of crops and application scenarios.

scholarly journals THE INTEGRATED RATING MECHANISM APPLICATION TO THE DECISION OF THE PROJECT SELECTION PROBLEM

2020 ◽  
pp. 104-113
Author(s):  
Tatiana Kataeva ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Organizational Management ◽  
Selection Problem ◽  
Organizational Systems ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Project Assessment ◽  
Functional Process

The article describes the model of a complex organizational management system where the several approaches are simultaneously implementing: functional, process and design. The relevance of applying integrated assessment mechanisms to management tasks in organizational systems, in particular, to solving the problems of coordinated decision-making, is substantiated. The reasons for the inconsistency of interests in the decision-making process are described. Examples of management tasks in organizational systems are given. The example of solving the problem of selecting projects into a portfolio using the integrated assessment mechanism is considered in detail. A set of evaluation criteria is given and convolution matrices are described. The development plan for the project assessment mechanism including risk assessment, taking into account the rank of expert is proposed.

scholarly journals A STEPPED HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION FOLLOWING MILITARY ACTIONS

2018 ◽  
pp. 61-72
Author(s):  
S. M. Orel ◽  
O. V. Ivashchenko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Error Propagation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Propagation Methods ◽  
State Of The Environment

Military activities resulting in chemical pollution of the environment could produce a long-term impact on human health, whereas under certain conditions even ultra-low concentrations of some substances might provoke cancer, without noticeable toxic effect. According to modern views on carcinogenesis, the effect of carcinogens on human health does not have a threshold level of concentration. With the current deplorable state of the environment and an urgent need to improve it in view, we argue that there is a critical need for the mechanism that could assess the real state of the environment and would be instrumental for optimal decision-making process aimed at reducing environmental costs. The paper reports a case-study and exemplifies that a stepped health risk assessment is appropriate and helpful in case of environmental pollution following military actions. It also highlights the results of the risk assessment for life of the population living in the vicinity of hostilities. The results of the possible risk calculations concerning the damage non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic compounds could cause to the people living in the vicinity of hostilities were obtained in stages; the simple Monte Carlo error propagation methods and the two-dimensional Monte Carlo procedure were used to estimate the probability of different outcomes due to the intervention of random variables. It is shown that, in comparison with the simple Monte Carlo error propagation methods, the two-dimensional Monte Carlo procedure for estimating the probability of different outcomes provides additional information for the decision-making process, concerning either taking some specific measures or not. The findings of the study are the following: the assessment and subsequent analysis of environmental risk provide much more relevant information for taking an environmental decision, as compared to the threshold concentration methodology. The risk assessment should be carried out in stages, starting from simple (deterministic) to more complex ones (first the simple Monte Carlo error propagation methods, and later, two-dimensional Monte Carlo method), whenever there arise any of the following needs: if it is necessary to establish priorities among the areas, polluters, pollutants, pollutant transfer routes, categories of population and other risk factors; if resources for environmental conservation are limited; if mistaken decisions could generate destructive results; if there is a lack of information necessary to take a competent decision.

scholarly journals Health Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contaminated by Oil Pollutants Based on Numerical Modeling

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 3245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue Bai ◽  
Kai Song ◽  
Jian Liu ◽  
Adam Khalifa Mohamed ◽  
Chenya Mou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Numerical Modeling ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Health Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Reference Sequence ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Theoretical Support

To provide theoretical support for the protection of dispersed drinking water sources of groundwater, we need to accurately evaluate the time and scope of groundwater pollution hazards to human health. This helps the decision-making process for remediation of polluted soil and groundwater in service stations. In this study, we conducted such an evaluation by coupling numerical modeling with a health risk assessment. During the research, soil and groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for 20 pollutants. Fifty-six percent of the heavy contaminants and 100% of the organic contaminants exhibited maximum values at the location of the oil depot. Gray correlation analysis showed that the correlation between background samples and soil underlying the depot was 0.375–0.567 (barely significant to insignificant). The correlation between the reference sequence of other points was 0.950–0.990 (excellent correlation). The correlation of environmental impact after oil depot leakage followed the order: organic pollutants > heavy metals > inorganic pollutants. The groundwater simulation status and predictions indicated that non-carcinogenic health risks covered 25,462 m2 at the time of investigation, and were predicted to extend to 29,593 m2 after five years and to 39,873 m2 after 10 years. Carcinogenic health risks covered 21,390 m2 at the time of investigation, and were predicted to extend to 40,093 m2 after five years and to 53,488 m2 after 10 years. This study provides theoretical support for the protection of a dispersed drinking water source such as groundwater, and also helps the decision-making process for groundwater and soil environment improvement.

Training trainers in risk assessment

1997 ◽  
Vol 170 (S32) ◽  
pp. 35-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Harris
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Apprenticeship Model ◽  
Based Medicine ◽  
Early Training

Risk assessment has always been an essential part of all medical practice, and doctors have always been trained to make rapid assessment of risk. Much of the early training of doctors in both medicine and surgery centres on risk assessment. However, the method of acquiring that knowledge is predominantly through the apprenticeship model with observation by the trainee of the trainer's decision-making process. Those decisions, however, are often skewed and biased by a whole variety of influences, rather than always being based on scientific evidence. Clearly the increasing influence of evidence-based medicine will help this. At one extreme, however, there are heroic surgeons taking unnecessary risk or taking on cases which might more appropriately have been left without treatment, and at the other extreme, consultants who may feel demoralised or depressed might well become nihilistic about medicine and therefore might not attempt to treat cases that are treatable.

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