scholarly journals Stochastic and Momentum Analysis of Nepalese Stock Market

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-22
Author(s):  
Rashesh Vaidya
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Basic Concept ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stochastic Oscillator ◽  
Zero Line ◽  
June July

The stochastic oscillator is one of the popular tools used by technical analysts. The tools are used mainly to find the overbought and oversold position in the stock market. The stochastic values are between 0-100 which helps to determine the market scenario. The two stochastic indicators are comprised of two lines namely; %K and %D. The investors using the short-term moving average follows %K and for long-term moving average for %D. Though, both are used for buy signal or sell signal by the investors. The basic concept is if, the value of %K is seen above %D, which reflects to sell position, which in context to Nepalese stock market, the scenario is seen during the month of June-July of every fiscal year. At the same time, momentum uses transaction signal or trade signal or the zero ‘0’ line to find the bearish or bullish trend of the market. The momentum of NEPSE index clearly pictures out the bullish and the bearish trend for a specific duration. If the momentum line touches the ‘zero line’, the NEPSE has changed its trend.

scholarly journals Accuracy of Moving Average Forecasting for NEPSE

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-76
Author(s):  
Rashesh Vaidya
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Graphical Representation ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Moving Averages ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
The Future

A simple moving average is one of the oldest and the simplest techniques of forecasting the trends of the stock market. The technical analysts follow mainly three types of moving averages, namely; simple, weighted, and exponential moving averages. Among these three types, as per the interest of investors, short-term and long-term time duration is used to calculate the trend using the moving average. All the mentioned moving averages are used by investors or analysts to predict the future trends of the market using historical data. Hence, for evaluating their forecasting accuracy, the paper has used both the short-term and the long-term moving average. The paper has used the NEPSE (closing) index values to calculate as well as plotted the moving averages to forecast the future trend and its accuracy with the help of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The paper found that there is a better crossover in the graphical representation of the moving average in the long-term moving average. In context to the Nepalese stock market, the MAPE results reflected a weekly (5-trading days) 5-SMA analysis of the market movement as the most relevant in short-term forecasting. Similarly, using the technique of moving average, 200-SMA (200-trading days of a year) was seen as the most effective to forecast long-term trends. The result of the long-term moving average MAPE pointed out that the annual reports of the listed companies better determine the trend of the market.

Impact of FII’s and FDI’s on Indian Stock Market

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr. Kamlesh Kumar Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Earnings Growth ◽  
The Past ◽  
Bull Market ◽  
Indian Stock Market

FIIs are companies registered outside India. In the past four years there has been more than $41 trillion worth of FII funds invested in India. This has been one of the major reasons on the bull market witnessing unprecedented growth with the BSE Sensex rising 221% in absolute terms in this span. The present downfall of the market too is influenced as these FIIs are taking out some of their invested money. Though there is a lot of value in this market and fundamentally there is a lot of upside in it. For long-term value investors, there’s little because for worry but short term traders are adversely getting affected by the role of FIIs are playing at the present. Investors should not panic and should remain invested in sectors where underlying earnings growth has little to do with financial markets or global economy.

MULTIFRACTAL FLUCTUATIONS OF JIUZHAIGOU TOURISTS BEFORE AND AFTER WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE

Fractals ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (01) ◽  
pp. 1350001 ◽  
Author(s):  
KAI SHI ◽  
WEN-YONG LI ◽  
CHUN-QIONG LIU ◽  
ZHENG-WEN HUANG
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dynamical Mechanism ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Previous State ◽  
Multifractal Behavior ◽  
Multifractal Nature

In this work, multifractal methods have been successfully used to characterize the temporal fluctuations of daily Jiuzhai Valley domestic and foreign tourists before and after Wenchuan earthquake in China. We used multifractal detrending moving average method (MF-DMA). It showed that Jiuzhai Valley tourism markets are characterized by long-term memory and multifractal nature in. Moreover, the major sources of multifractality are studied. Based on the concept of sliding window, the time evolutions of the multifractal behavior of domestic and foreign tourists were analyzed and the influence of Wenchuan earthquake on Jiuzhai Valley tourism system dynamics were evaluated quantitatively. The study indicates that the inherent dynamical mechanism of Jiuzhai Valley tourism system has not been fundamentally changed from long views, although Jiuzhai Valley tourism system was seriously affected by the Wenchuan earthquake. Jiuzhai Valley tourism system has the ability to restore to its previous state in the short term.

scholarly journals Implikasi Penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 Tentang Pengampunan Pajak (Tax Amnesty) Dalam Meningkatkan Kepatuhan Wajib Pajak

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Agus Saiful Abib ◽  
Efi Yulistyowati ◽  
Amri Panahatan Sihotang
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Tax Amnesty ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
National Tax

<p>Tahun 2016, pemerintah mengeluarkan kembali kebijakan <em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty </em>yang dituangkan dalam Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak. Pengampunan Pajak (<em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty)</em> ini diharapkan dapat meningkatkan penerimaan pajak dalam jangka pendek melalui pembayaran uang tebusan, meningkatkan penerimaan pajak dalam jangka panjang melalui perluasan basis data pemajakan, meningkatkan kepatuhan Wajib Pajak, transisi ke sistem perpajakan baru yang lebih kuat dan adil, dan mendorong rekonsiliasi perpajakan nasional. Sehubungan dengan hal tersebut, untuk mengetahui apakah program <em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty</em> Indonesia Tahun 2016 berhasil atau tidak, khususnya dalam meningkatkan kepatuhan wajib pajak, maka perlu dilakukan penelitian tentang : “Implikasi Penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak (<em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty</em>) dalam Meningkatkan Kepatuhan Wajib Pajak”. Adapun permasalahan yang akan dibahas adalah bagaimana implikasi penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak<em> (Tax</em> <em>Amnesty)</em> dalam meningkatkan kepatuhan Wajib Pajak ? Berdasarkan implikasi tersebut, maka bagaimana sebaiknya pengaturan perpajakan yang akan datang ? Berdasarkan permasalahan tersebut jenis penelitian ini adalah yuridis normatif yang akan dikaji dengan pendekatan perundang-undangan, spesifikasi penelitiannya diskriptif analitis, data yang dipergunakan data sekunder, yang dianalisis secara kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa implikasi penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak<em> (Tax</em> <em>Amnesty)</em> dapat meningkatkan kepatuhan Wajib Pajak, dan berdasarkan implikasi tersebut SE Dirjen Pajak No. SE - 06/PJ/2017 seharusnya tidak hanya untuk tahun pajak 2017 saja, tetapi juga untuk tahun-tahun yang akan datang. Di samping itu perlu ada peraturan yang mengatur tentang pengawasan terhadap pelaksanaan hak Wajib Pajak.</p><pre>In 2016, the government re-issue the Tax Amnesty policy as outlined in Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amnesty. The Tax Amnesty is expected to increase tax revenue in the short term through ransom payments, increase tax revenues over the long term through the expansion of taxation databases, increase taxpayer compliance, transition to a stronger and more just tax system, and encourage national tax reconciliation. In relation to this matter, to find out whether the program of Tax Amnesty Indonesia Year 2016 succeed or not, especially in increasing taxpayer compliance, it is necessary to do research on: "Implications Implementation of Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amnesty in Improving Taxpayer Compliance ". The problem to be discussed is how the implications of the implementation of Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amendment (Tax Amnesty) in improving taxpayer compliance? Based on these implications, then how should the taxation arrangements to come? Based on the problem, this type of research is normative juridical which will be studied with the approach of legislation, the analytical descriptive research specification, the data used secondary data, which analyzed qualitatively. The result of the research shows that the implication of the implementation of Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amnesty can improve Taxpayer compliance, and based on the implication of SE Dirjen Pajak No. SE - 06 / PJ / 2017 should not only be for the fiscal year 2017 alone, but also for the years to come. In addition, there should be a regulation that regulates the supervision of the implementation of taxpayers' rights.</pre>

scholarly journals The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables On the Saudi Stock Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 126-152
Author(s):  
Amani Mohammed Aldukhail
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Time Deposits

This study aimed at exploring the effect of macroeconomic variables on the activity of the Saudi stock market for the period 1997-2017. Macroeconomic variables were: GDP, interest rate on time deposits, inflation rate. The variables of the Saudi stock market activity were: stock price index, market value of shares, value of traded shares. To achieve this objective, the researcher used the ARDL model for the self-regression of the lagged distributed time gaps. The most important results of the research are: The effect of macroeconomic variables on the performance indicators in the Saudi stock market is not important in the short term and is statistically significant in the long term according to the proposed models, so investors in this market can rely on macroeconomic variables in Predict the movement of the stock market and predict long-term profits and losses.

Testing Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from SAARC Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Faisal Anees ◽  
Shujahat Haider Hashmi ◽  
Muhammad Asad
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Moving Averages ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Technical Trading Rules ◽  
Average Rule ◽  
Data Representative ◽  
Simple Average

Technical analysis is widely accepted tool in professional place which is frequently used for investment decisions. Technical analysis beliefs that there exist patterns and trends and by capturing trends and patterns one can bless with above average profits. We test two technical strategies: Moving averages and Trading Range to question, either these techniques can yield profitable returns with the help of historical data. Representative daily indices of Four countries namely Pakistan, India, Srilanka, Bangladesh ranging from 1997 to 2011 have been examined. In case of Moving Average Rule, both simple and exponential averages have been examined to test eleven different short term and long term rules with and without band condition. Our results delivered that buy signals generate consistent above average returns for the all sub periods and sell signals generate lower returns than the normal returns. Intriguing observation is that Exponential average generates higher returns than the Simple Average. The results of Trading Range Break strategy are parallel with Moving average Method. However, Trading Range Strategy found not to give higher average higher return when compared with Moving Averages Rules and degree of volatility in returns is higher when compared with moving Average rule. In attempt to conclude, there exist patterns and trends that yield above average and below average returns which justify the validity of technical analysis.

scholarly journals THE ISLAMIC CAPITAL MARKET VOLATILITY: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN IN INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-415
Author(s):  
Muhammad Syafii Antonio ◽  
Hafidhoh Hafidhoh ◽  
Hilman Fauzi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Jones Index

This study attempts to examine the short-term and long-term relationship among selected global anddomestic macroeconomic variables fromeach country (Fed rate, crude oil price, Dow Jones Index, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation) for Indonesia and Malaysia Islamic capital market (Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI). The methodology used in this study is vector error correction model (VECM) for the monthly data starting from January 2006 to December 2010. The result shows that in the long-term, all selectedmacroeconomic variables except Dow Jones Index variable have significantly affect in both Islamic stock market FHSI and JII, while in the short-term there is no any selected macroeconomic variables that significantly affect FHSI and only inflation, exchange rate and crude oil price variables seem to significantly affect JII. Keywords : Islamic Stock Market, Jakarta Islamic Index, FTSE Hijrah Shariah Index, VAR/VECMJEL Classification: E52, E44

scholarly journals Price Discovery on Stock Index Futures markets under Extreme Events: Evidence from China

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (25) ◽  
pp. 190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Stable Period

In this paper, the price discovery function of stock index futures for spot stock index is studied in view of the soaring and plunging periods of Chinese stock market in recent years. We use the VECM model to do empirical research under periods of stationary, boom and slump. The results show that there is a long-term relationship between CSI 300 index and CSI 300 index futures. During the stable period of Chinese stock market, the CSI 300 stock index futures are sensitive to the short-term impact, and its ability of price discovery is obviously. However, during the period of boom and collapse, the price discovery function of CSI 300 index futures is weak.

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