Predicting the future distribution of Polar Bear Habitat in the polar basin from resource selection functions applied to 21st century general circulation model projections of sea ice

2007 ◽  
pp. 1-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
George M. Durner ◽  
David Douglas ◽  
Ryan M. Nielson ◽  
Steven C. Amstrup ◽  
Trent L. McDonald
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaxu Zhang ◽  
Wilbert Weijer ◽  
Mathew Einar Maltrud ◽  
Carmela Veneziani ◽  
Nicole Jeffery ◽  
...  

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 266-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Simmonds ◽  
W.F. Budd

We present a simple parameterization of the effect of open leads in a general circulation model of the atmosphere. We consider only the case where the sea ice distribution is prescribed (i.e., not interactive) and the fraction of open water in the ice is also prescribed and set at the same value at all points in the Southern Hemisphere and a different value in the Northern Hemisphere. We approximate the distribution of sea ice over a model “grid box” as a part of the box being covered by solid ice of uniform thickness and the complement of the box consisting of open water at a fixed -1.8 C. Because of the nonlinearity in the flux computations, separate calculations are performed over the solid sea ice and over the open leads. The net fluxes conveyed to the atmosphere over the grid box are determined by performing the appropriate area-weighted average over the two surface types. We report on an experiment designed to assess the sensitivity of the modelled climate to the imposition of a 50% concentration in the winter Antarctic sea ice. Significant warming of up to 6°C takes place in the vicinity of and above the Antarctic sea ice and is associated with significant changes in the zonal wind structure. Pressure reductions are simulated over the sea ice, being particularly marked in the Weddell Sea region, and an anomalous east-west aligned ridge is simulated at about 60°S. Very large changes in the sensible heat flux (in excess of 200 Wm−2) are simulated near the coast of Antarctica.


2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 483-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. J. Phipps ◽  
L. D. Rotstayn ◽  
H. B. Gordon ◽  
J. L. Roberts ◽  
A. C. Hirst ◽  
...  

Abstract. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulations and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. This paper describes the model physics and software, analyses the control climatology, and evaluates the ability of the model to simulate the modern climate. Mk3L incorporates a spectral atmospheric general circulation model, a z-coordinate ocean general circulation model, a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and a land surface scheme with static vegetation. The source code is highly portable, and has no dependence upon proprietary software. The model distribution is freely available to the research community. A 1000-yr climate simulation can be completed in around one-and-a-half months on a typical desktop computer, with greater throughput being possible on high-performance computing facilities. Mk3L produces realistic simulations of the larger-scale features of the modern climate, although with some biases on the regional scale. The model also produces reasonable representations of the leading modes of internal climate variability in both the tropics and extratropics. The control state of the model exhibits a high degree of stability, with only a weak cooling trend on millennial timescales. Ongoing development work aims to improve the model climatology and transform Mk3L into a comprehensive earth system model.


1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 116-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Legutke ◽  
E. Maier-Reimkr ◽  
A. Stössel ◽  
A. Hellbach

A global ocean general circulation model has been coupled with a dynamic thermodynamic sea-ice model. This model has been spun-up in a 1000 year integration using daily atmosphere model data. Main water masses and currents are reproduced as well as the seasonal characteristics of the ice cover of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Model results for the Southern Ocean, however, show the ice cover as too thin, and there are large permanent polynyas in the Weddell and Ross Seas. These polynyas are due to a large upward oceanic heat flux caused by haline rejection during the freezing of sea ice. Sensitivity studies were performed to test several ways of treating the sea-surface salinity and the rejected brine. The impact on the ice cover, water-mass characteristics, and ocean circulation are described.


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