An empirical approach to the analysis of local and global climate and weather data and to the determination of CO2 sensitivities

Some freely available global temperature data sets which document the weather for a period of over 100 years, e.g. from NASA, from NOAA, additionally also local data e.g. for Germany (DWD) were analyzed in order to derive meaningful empirical long-term trends with suitable multi-annual averages. This is first demonstrated using global climate data with different approaches, whereby the results are to a high degree consistent. Analyzes of the German temperature and weather data and of climate data from other continents are carried out in a similar manner. For reliable forecasts it is important to determine the CO2 sensitivity as precisely as possible. A very simple method is to smooth out temperatures over 20 years at a time. If these values are plotted at intervals of 10 years over the associated (also averaged) CO2 content, the temperature database (since 1961) is condensed to 5 data points and a statement can be made about the quality of the linearity for the respective database. Both the NASA data and the NOAA data show an unusually good linearity with almost identical CO2 sensitivity (approx. 0.0105 K/ppm CO2). This indicates that the long-term trend in global temperature since around 1960 has been largely determined solely by greenhouse gases. If the regional weather data is used as a basis, there is also in many cases strict linearity with increasing CO2 content. The analysis of the regional data allows the conclusion that there is approximately a specific CO2 sensitivity for every region on earth with specific statistical uncertainties: For mean global land, it is 0.017 K, for Germany it is 0.022 K, and for Alaska even 0.028 K per ppm CO2 .

Three Methods of Estimating Mesophyll Conductance Agree Regarding its CO2 Sensitivity in the Rubisco-Limited Ci Range

Whether the mesophyll conductance to CO2 movement (gm) within leaves of C3 plants changes with CO2 concentration remains a matter of debate, particularly at low CO2 concentrations. We tested for changes in gm over the range of sub-stomatal CO2 concentrations (Ci) for which Rubisco activity limited photosynthesis (A) in three plant species grown under the same conditions. Mesophyll conductance was estimated by three independent methods: the oxygen sensitivity of photosynthesis, variable J fluorescence combined with gas exchange, and the curvature of the Rubisco-limited A vs. Ci curve. The latter assay used a new method of rapidly obtaining data points at approximately every 3 μmol mol−1 for Rubisco-limited A vs. Ci curves, allowing separate estimates of curvature over limited Ci ranges. In two species, soybean and sunflower, no change in gm with Ci was detected using any of the three methods of estimating gm. In common bean measured under the same conditions as the other species, all three methods indicated large decreases in gm with increasing Ci. Therefore, change in gm with Ci in the Rubsico-limited region of A vs. Ci curves depended on the species, but not on the method of estimating gm.