scholarly journals Determining the Real Exchange Rate Equilibrium for Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Relative Productivity ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The achievement of macroeconomic stability and sustained economic growth are the main targets of macroeconomic agents and policymakers. High volatility in Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is noticed while moving towards flexible Exchange rate regime. Three assessment methodologies are followed in the paper i.e. PPP approach, PPP approach adjusted for Penn effect and reduced form equation approach to gauge REER misalignment. VAR modelling suggest that, PPP holds for Pakistan and Penn effect is witnessed in the country for FY1980-FY12018. The determinants of REER, like “openness to GDP ratio, Govt consumption to GDP ratio, Long term Investment to GDP ratio, relative productivity and terms of trade” are responsible for depreciation in REER. While, worker remittances and FDI leads towards the REER appreciation in. It is indispensable to opt for the devaluation of PKR to gain export competitiveness, which may result in shrinkage of current account deficit. To increase the productivity of tradable items and to reduce the GOVT consumption of imported items are few steps to push REER towards equilibrium level. As per the state of art model the range of misalignment in REER is from -3.9% to 4.2% in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Misalignment And Current Account Sustainability: The Australian Experience

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francois Hermet ◽  
Jean-Francois Hoarau ◽  
Alain Nurbel
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account Sustainability ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Australian Experience ◽  
The Current Account

Australia’s persistent current account deficit engenders lively debates about its intertemporal solvency. This paper aims at showing whether there is really a misalignment of the $A real effective exchange rate ($A REER) and, if it is the case, at wondering about its real influence on the current account of Australia. The estimation of our empirical model puts forward a misalignment of the $A REER, but at the same time allows to emphasise the reduction in the magnitude of the misalignment since the adoption of the flexible exchange rate regime. Adding the stabilisation of the current account deficit, although recurrent, results in lending support to the Australian current account sustainability commonly held view.

Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate and Its Relationship with Foreign Investments: A Case of Indian Stock Market

2020 ◽  
pp. 097226292091410
Author(s):  
Saif Siddiqui ◽  
Preeti Roy
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Asymmetry ◽  
Long Run ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Emerging markets, including India, are witnessing an influx of foreign capital. The article investigates the role of exchange rate which influences both the net foreign institutional investments (FIIs) and the stock markets, using monthly data, from January 2008 to May 2018. The effects of real effective exchange rate are studied through non-linear ARDL co-integration. The long-run relationship is found in all the three models constructed. The results highlight the nature of FII flows in relation to exchange rate asymmetry. Real rupee depreciation has a long-run effect on their debt flows. The ‘adjustment asymmetry effect’ of exchange rate is found for equity flows in the long run. The similar effect is observed for the Nifty 50 model. Due to high volatility, even positive stock returns do not attract equity FII flows. In the short run, rupee depreciation in real terms negatively influences Nifty returns. The S&P 500 returns explain FII flows indicating information asymmetry. These outcomes serve a vital input for key stakeholders such as potential FIIs, domestic traders, regulators and policymakers.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate and Competiveness of Senegalese Companies

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 62-66
Author(s):  
Abdou Aziz Toure ◽  
◽  
Souleymane Keita ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The Real ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This paper aims at assessing the potential impact of the exchange rate on the competitiveness of Senegalese companies. It attempts to evaluate the elasticity of manufacturing exports in relation to public and private investment and to the real effective exchange rate in Senegal, over the period 1984-2010. The methodology used is an econometric model based on an equation of reduced form. The results of the long-term model estimation indicate that public and private investment both have a positive and significant impact on manufacturing exports while the real effective exchange rate has a negative impact. Keywords: Exchange rates, Competitiveness, Elasticity of exports, Senegalese companies.

scholarly journals Searching for long-range dependence in real effective exchange rate: towards parity?

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 821-857 ◽  
Author(s):  
André M. Marques ◽  
Fábio Pesavento
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
The Real ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Abstract After the widespread adoption of flexible exchange rate regime since 1973 the volatility of the exchange rate has increased, as a consequence of greater trade openness and financial integration. As a result, it has become difficult to find evidence of the purchasing power parity hypothesis (PPP). This study investigates the possibility of a fall in the persistence of the real exchange rate as a consequence of the financial and commercial integration by employing monthly real effective exchange rate dataset provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Beginning with an exploratory data analysis in the frequency domain, the fractional coefficient d was estimated employing the bias-reduced estimator on a sample of 20 countries over the period ranging from 1975 to 2011. As the main novelty, this study applies a bias-reduced log-periodogram regression estimator instead of the traditional method proposed by GPH which eliminates the first and higher orders biases by a data-dependent plug-in method for selecting the number of frequencies to minimize asymptotic mean-squared error (MSE). Additionally, this study also estimates a moving window of fifteen years to observe the path of the fractional coefficient in each country. No evidence was found of a statistically significant change in the persistence of the real exchange rate.

scholarly journals Pakistan’s External Trade: Does Exchange Rate Misalignment Matter for Pakistan?

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (Special Edition) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ashraf Janjua
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment ◽  
Relative Productivity ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This paper is primarily aimed at assessing the significance of the exchange rate on Pakistan’s foreign trade. It estimates the Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate (ERER) and exchange rate misalignment for Pakistan using annual data from FY78 to FY06. The Engle Granger cointegration technique is used for the estimation of ERER depending upon various macroeconomic fundamentals as recommended by Edwards (1994). The results of the study are also used for the forecasting of ERER and misalignment up to the year 2010. The results of the study reveal that ERER is determined by variables such as: a) terms of trade, b) trade openness, c) net capital inflows, d) relative productivity differential, e) government consumption, and f) workers’ remittances.

scholarly journals Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance and Intra-Industry Trade Interactions in Turkey’s OECD Trade

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Demiral
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p>This study re-examines the determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in its manufactures trade with 33 OECD-member countries for the short-run and the long-run. Unlike other studies, in the relationships we also control the moderating effects of the availability of import substitutes proxied by intra-industry trade. We analyze quarterly aggregated time-series data of the period spanning from 1998.QI to 2015.QIII, following the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Estimation results reveal that real effective exchange rate, together with domestic and foreign incomes are still among the core determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in the manufacturing sectors. There is no significant impact of domestic final oil prices that also include all the taxes on gasoline. The trade balance depends on domestic income negatively and the aggregated income of the OECD countries positively. The finding that real depreciation of Turkish lira against to those of Turkey’s OECD trade partners improves trade balance in both the short-run and the long-run, indicates no evidence of J-curve adjustment process. Unsurprisingly, the intra-industry trade seems to be an important factor that moderates the elasticities of trade balance to its determinants, especially to real effective exchange rate and domestic income. Overall results underline the importance of import-substitution capability besides the export-oriented production to ease the longstanding large trade deficits for Turkey.</p><strong></strong>

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