scholarly journals MODELAGEM PREDITIVA DA ESPÉCIE Lychnophora pohlii SCH. BIP., NO ESTADO DE MINAS GERAIS

Nativa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Thaís Ribeiro Costa ◽  
Cristiane Coelho De Moura ◽  
Evandro Luiz Mendonça Machado ◽  
Marcelo Leandro Bueno
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Conservation Units ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Conservation Plans

O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar a distribuição potencial da espécie Lychnophora pohlli em Minas Gerais durante as flutuações climáticas no Quaternário, além de identificar a área de abrangência da espécie em Unidades de Conservação. O algoritmo Maxent foi selecionado para relacionar a ocorrência da espécie com variáveis bioclimáticas que refletem diferentes condições de temperatura, precipitação e sazonalidade. Os modelos foram validados por meio do índice AUC e a influência das variáveis sobre a distribuição das espécies foi avaliada por meio do teste Jackknife. Os mapas resultantes prevêem áreas de ocorrência restrita para a espécie, ocorrendo em uma porção da Serra do Espinhaço. Os modelos evidenciaram uma redução de área ambientalmente adequada da espécie do Holoceno para o período atual e aumento considerável dos dias atuais para o futuro. Os modelos apresentaram excelente desempenho, visto que os índices AUC variaram entre 0,971 a 0,997. A modelagem de distribuição de espécies mostrou-se bastante útil em fornecer contribuições para o estudo de questões ecológicas sobre a distribuição da espécie, além de ser uma importante ferramenta para planos de conservação da biodiversidade.  Recomenda-se o uso de outras variáveis microclimáticas que possam contribuir com a predição e interpretação da distribuição geográfica de espécies endêmicas.Palavra-chave: espécies Ameaçadas, Maxent, modelo de distribuição potencial, unidades de conservação. PREDICTIVE MODELING OF THE SPECIES LYCHNOPHORA POHLII SCH. BIP, IN THE STATE OF MINAS GERAIS ABSTRACT:The objective of this work was to determine the potential distribution of Lychnophora pohlli in Minas Gerais during climatic fluctuations in the Quaternary, in addition to identifying the area of coverage of the species in Conservation Units. The Maxent algorithm was selected to relate the occurrence of the species with bioclimatic variables that reflect different temperature, precipitation and seasonality conditions. The models were validated by AUC index and the influence of the variables on the distribution of the species were evaluated by the Jackknife test. The resulting maps provide areas of restricted occurrence for the species, occurring in a portion of the Serra do Espinhaço. The models showed environmentally adequate reduction of the Holocene species for the current period and a considerable increase from the present  to the future. The models showed excellent performance, since the AUC values ranged from 0,971 - 0,997. The modeling of species distribution has proved to be useful in providing contributions to the study of ecological issues on the species distribution, besides being an important tool for biodiversity conservation plans. It is recommended to use other microclimatic variables that may contribute to the prediction and interpretation of the geographic distribution of endemic species.Keywords: conservation units, endangered species, Maxent, potential distribution models. DOI:

Hotspots of change in major tree species under climate warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flurin Babst ◽  
Richard L. Peters ◽  
Rafel O. Wüest ◽  
Margaret E.K. Evans ◽  
Ulf Büntgen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

<p>Warming alters the variability and trajectories of tree growth around the world by intensifying or alleviating energy and water limitation. This insight from regional to global-scale research emphasizes the susceptibility of forest ecosystems and resources to climate change. However, globally-derived trends are not necessarily meaningful for local nature conservation or management considerations, if they lack specific information on present or prospective tree species. This is particularly the case towards the edge of their distribution, where shifts in growth trajectories may be imminent or already occurring.</p><p>Importantly, the geographic and bioclimatic space (or “niche”) occupied by a tree species is not only constrained by climate, but often reflects biotic pressure such as competition for resources with other species. This aspect is underrepresented in many species distribution models that define the niche as a climatic envelope, which is then allowed to shift in response to changes in ambient conditions. Hence, distinguishing climatic from competitive niche boundaries becomes a central challenge to identifying areas where tree species are most susceptible to climate change.</p><p>Here we employ a novel concept to characterize each position within a species’ bioclimatic niche based on two criteria: a climate sensitivity index (CSI) and a habitat suitability index (HSI). The CSI is derived from step-wise multiple linear regression models that explain variability in annual radial tree growth as a function of monthly climate anomalies. The HSI is based on an ensemble of five species distribution models calculated from a combination of observed species occurrences and twenty-five bioclimatic variables. We calculated these two indices for 11 major tree species across the Northern Hemisphere.</p><p>The combination of climate sensitivity and habitat suitability indicated hotspots of change, where tree growth is mainly limited by competition (low HSI and low CSI), as well as areas that are particularly sensitive to climate variability (low HSI and high CSI). In the former, we expect that forest management geared towards adjusting the competitive balance between several candidate species will be most effective under changing environmental conditions. In the latter areas, selecting particularly drought-tolerant accessions of a given species may reduce forest susceptibility to the predicted warming and drying.</p>

scholarly journals Climatic constraints and the distribution of Patagonian mice

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trinidad Ruiz Barlett ◽  
Gabriel M Martin ◽  
María Fabiana Laguna ◽  
Guillermo Abramson ◽  
Adrián Monjeau
Keyword(s):  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Habitat Characteristics ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Rodent Species ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Abstract We generated potential distribution models for 14 sigmodontine rodent species that inhabit the Andean–Patagonian forest region and adjacent areas, and retrieved the main climatic variables responsible for these models. Our main objective was to compare these climatic variables and the distribution patterns generated for each species, and explore the effects of the physical environment in shaping the composition of rodent communities in the area. We retrieved a total of 1,215 records of species presence from 580 sites. Maxent was used to generate potential distribution models for the 14 rodent species studied. We used a total of 20 variables obtained from the WorldClim database, including elevation and 19 bioclimatic variables, in addition to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). Our results showed a clear discrimination between two groups of rodents, one concentrated in the western part of our study area, with more humid climate and a rugged mountainous and discontinuous habitat, and another inhabiting the eastern, drier part of our study area, which appears to be more uniform in habitat characteristics. These groups showed a mosaic of phylogenetically non-related species from different tribes, that probably arrived or expanded into Patagonia during the last millennia. The overlap of all models showed the forest-steppe ecotone east of Nahuel Huapi Lake and south to −43° latitude as the area with the highest species richness (8–11 species). All species showed a high correspondence with temperature and precipitation that define patterns at a landscape scale, with little to very little information contained in the typical vegetation variables that would define local conditions. En este trabajo generamos modelos de distribución potencial para cada especie de roedor sigmodontino que habita la región de los bosques andino-patagónicos y áreas adyacentes, identificando las principales variables climáticas que influyen en dichas distribuciones. Nuestro principal objetivo fue comparar las variables climáticas y los patrones de distribución generados para cada especie, y explorar los efectos del entorno físico en la composición de los ensambles de especies. Recopilamos un total de 1215 registros de presencia de especies de 580 sitios. Se utilizó MaxEnt para generar los modelos de distribución potencial de las 14 especies de roedores estudiadas, con 20 variables obtenidas de la base de datos WorldClim, incluida la elevación, 19 variables bioclimáticas, además del NDVI y EVI. Nuestros resultados muestran una clara discriminación entre dos grupos de roedores, uno concentrado en el área occidental, con un clima más húmedo y montañoso, y otro que habita en el área más seca del este. Curiosamente, estos grupos muestran un mosaico de especies, filogenéticamente no relacionadas y de diferentes tribus, que probablemente llegaron o se expandieron en la Patagonia durante los últimos milenios. La superposición de todos los modelos muestra el ecotono bosque-estepa, al este del lago Nahuel Huapi y hacia el sur hasta los -43°, como la zona más rica en especies (8 a 11 especies). Todas las especies muestran una alta correspondencia con las variables ambientales (temperatura y precipitación) que definen patrones a escala del paisaje, con muy poca información contenida en las variables típicas de la vegetación que definirían las condiciones locales.

scholarly journals Magnolia mercedesiarum (subsect. Talauma, Magnoliaceae): a new Andean species from northern Ecuador, with insights into its potential distribution

Phytotaxa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 348 (4) ◽  
pp. 254 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-ANTONIO VÁZQUEZ-GARCÍA ◽  
DAVID A. NEILL ◽  
VIACHESLAV SHALISKO ◽  
FRANK ARROYO ◽  
R. EFRÉN MERINO-SANTI
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Rare Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Vegetation Sampling ◽  
A New Species

Magnolia mercedesiarum, a new species from the eastern slopes of the Andes in northern Ecuador, is described and illustrated, and a key to Ecuadorian Magnolia (subsect. Talauma) is provided. This species differs from M. vargasiana in having broadly elliptic leaves that have an obtuse base vs. suborbicular and subcordate to cordate, glabrous stipular scars, more numerous lateral veins per side and fewer stamens. It also differs from M. llanganatensis in having leaf blades broadly elliptic vs. elliptic, longer petioles, less numerous lateral leaf veins per side, larger fruits and more numerous petals and carpels. Using MaxEnt species distribution models and IUCN threat criteria, M. mercedesiarum has a potential distribution area of less than 3307 km² and is assessed as Endangered (EN): B1 ab (i, ii, iii). The relevance of systematic vegetation sampling in the discovery of rare species is highlighted.

scholarly journals Past and present potential distribution of the IberianAbiesspecies: a phytogeographic approach using fossil pollen data and species distribution models

2010 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisca Alba-Sánchez ◽  
José A. López-Sáez ◽  
Blas Benito-de Pando ◽  
Juan C. Linares ◽  
Diego Nieto-Lugilde ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Fossil Pollen ◽  
Pollen Data ◽  
Distribution Models

scholarly journals Mammalia, Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae, Mimon crenulatum (Geoffroy St.-Hilaire, 1803): first Record for the Cerrado Biome in the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

Check List ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 692
Author(s):  
Sérgio Lopes de Oliveira ◽  
Joaquim Manoel da Silva ◽  
Ricardo Firmino de Sousa ◽  
Karina De Cassia Faria
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
First Record ◽  
The State ◽  
Morphometric Data ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Cerrado Biome ◽  
Central Brazil

Two male individuals of Mimon crenulatum were captured in the Mario Viana Municipal Park, at Nova Xavantina, eastern Mato Grosso, Brazil. This record expands the species’ distribution in West-Central Brazil, and represents the first record for the Cerrado of Mato Grosso. The specimens’ morphometric data are presented and compared with those of specimens found in other biomes. Two predictive geographic distribution models were generated, indicating the expansion of the potential distribution of the species.

scholarly journals Potential distribution models of Sechium tacaco (Pittier) C. Jeffrey in Costa Rica

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Ángel Barrera-Guzmán ◽  
Juan Porfirio Legaria-Solano ◽  
Jorge Cadena-Iñiguez ◽  
Jaime Sahagún-Castellanos ◽  
Gabriela Ramírez-Ojeda
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Generalized Additive Model ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
San Jose ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Objective: Determine current and potential distribution of S. tacaco in Costa Rica with seven Species Distribution Models (SDM), in order to optimize the management of S. tacaco genetic resources, aimed at identifying patterns of geographic distribution and possible climatic adaptations allowing to have perspectives on their conservation and genetic breeding. Design/Methodology/Approach: 21 points of occurrence together with 19 bioclimatic variables and altitude were used to evaluate seven machine learning models and an assembly of these. Open-source libraries running in Rstudio were used. Results: Distribution models were inferred by the variables bio1, bio2, bio3, bio4, bio12, bio13, bio14, bio18 y bio19. The generalized additive model obtained the highest values ??of area under the curve (0.96) and True skill statistic (0.90), however, the seven models tested and the assembly showed adequate performance (AUC> 0.5 and TSS> 0.4). Bioclimatic variables related to temperature were the ones with the greatest contribution to the models and the main limitations in the distribution of S. tacaco. Study limitations/implications: Possibly a greater number of occurrence points are required to evaluate distribution models. Findings/Conclusions. Areas with high potential distribution suitability for S. tacaco are found in central valleys of Costa Rica, covering regions of the provinces of Alajuela, Cartago, San José and Puntarenas. These areas can be sources of germplasm for future conservation and breeding studies.

scholarly journals The explicit integration of Species Conceptual Models and Species Distribution Models as a best practice for systematic conservation planning in California

2021 ◽  
pp. 41-60
Author(s):  
Monica D. Parisi ◽  
Steven E. Greco
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Conservation Planning ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Systematic Conservation Planning ◽  
Community Conservation ◽  
Natural Community ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Conservation Plans

Natural Community Conservation Plans (NCCPs) represent the most powerful tool in statute for regional and systematic conservation planning for species at risk in California. This study examines the use of species conceptual models (SCMs) and species distribution models (SDMs) in such planning. Eighteen Natural Community Conservation Plans (NCCPs) were analyzed to determine if or how explicit connections were made between both types of models for a covered species and key components of its conservation strategy. Results indicate plans were strong in the use of SDMs, however, each deferred preparing or using SCMs to later management and monitoring phases. A more effective best planning practice for developing a conservation strategy is to explicitly integrate SCMs and SDMs during plan preparation.

Species distribution modelling using bioclimatic variables to determine the impacts of a changing climate on the western ringtail possum (Pseudocheirus occidentals; Pseudocheiridae)

2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHAUN W. MOLLOY ◽  
ROBERT A. DAVIS ◽  
EDDIE J. B. VAN ETTEN
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Core Habitat ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Ringtail Possum

SUMMARYThe ngwayir (western ringtail possum Pseudocheirus occidentalis) is an arboreal species endemic to south-western Australia. The range and population of this species have been significantly reduced through multiple anthropogenic impacts. Classified as vulnerable, the ngwayir is highly susceptible to extremes of temperature and reduced water intake. Ngwayir distribution was determined using three different species distribution models using ngwayir presence records related to a set of 19 bioclimatic variables derived from historical climate data, overlaid with 2050 climate change scenarios. MaxEnt was used to identify core habitat and demonstrate how this habitat may be impacted. A supplementary modelling exercise was also conducted to ascertain potential impacts on the tree species that are core habitat for ngwayir. All models predicted a reduction of up to 60% in the range of the ngwayir and its habitat, as a result of global warming towards the south-west of the project area, with a mean potential distribution of 10.3% of the total modelled area of 561 059 km2. All three tree species modelled (jarrah, marri and peppermint) were predicted to experience similar contractions in range throughout most of the predicted ngwayir range, although their distributions differed. Populations of ngwayir persisting outside core habitat may indicate potential conservation opportunities.

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