Bayesian assessment of utility tunnel risk based on information sharing mechanism

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Guodong Zhang ◽  
Meixia Shi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Sharing ◽  
Stackelberg Game ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Normal Operation ◽  
Main Body ◽  
Utility Tunnel ◽  
Information Sharing Mechanism ◽  
Potential Disaster

The main body of the utility tunnel is all kinds of pipelines, so the normal operation of the pipelines is very important for the operation benefit of the comprehensive utility tunnel; meanwhile, identifying the potential risks of the pipelines in time can reduce the losses caused by the uncertain risks to the comprehensive utility tunnel. This paper uses the Stackelberg game model to analyze the risk information sharing among utility tunnel institutions which concludes in utility tunnel company and pipeline company, which is helpful for understanding the decision-making process in the game and its equilibrium results can guide utility tunnel company’s decision-making behavior in seeking utility tunnel risk treatment. On this basis, this paper analyzes the potential disaster risk factors in the operation process of utility tunnel, and constructs the risk early warning model of integrated pipeline corridor based on Bayesian network. The results show that the potential disaster risk during the operation of utility tunnel is evaluated, and the overall risk probability level, the key path and key risk factors of the occurrence of disaster risk events are obtained.

scholarly journals Development of a prognostic tool: based on risk factors for tooth loss after active periodontal therapy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonja Rahim-Wöstefeld ◽  
Dorothea Kronsteiner ◽  
Shirin ElSayed ◽  
Nihad ElSayed ◽  
Peter Eickholz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Tooth Loss ◽  
Treatment Plan ◽  
Periodontal Therapy ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Individual Treatment ◽  
Risk Indicator ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Prognostic Tool

Abstract Objectives The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic tool to estimate long-term tooth retention in periodontitis patients at the beginning of active periodontal therapy (APT). Material and methods Tooth-related factors (type, location, bone loss (BL), infrabony defects, furcation involvement (FI), abutment status), and patient-related factors (age, gender, smoking, diabetes, plaque control record) were investigated in patients who had completed APT 10 years before. Descriptive analysis was performed, and a generalized linear-mixed model-tree was used to identify predictors for the main outcome variable tooth loss. To evaluate goodness-of-fit, the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated using cross-validation. A bootstrap approach was used to robustly identify risk factors while avoiding overfitting. Results Only a small percentage of teeth was lost during 10 years of supportive periodontal therapy (SPT; 0.15/year/patient). The risk factors abutment function, diabetes, and the risk indicator BL, FI, and age (≤ 61 vs. > 61) were identified to predict tooth loss. The prediction model reached an AUC of 0.77. Conclusion This quantitative prognostic model supports data-driven decision-making while establishing a treatment plan in periodontitis patients. In light of this, the presented prognostic tool may be of supporting value. Clinical relevance In daily clinical practice, a quantitative prognostic tool may support dentists with data-based decision-making. However, it should be stressed that treatment planning is strongly associated with the patient’s wishes and adherence. The tool described here may support establishment of an individual treatment plan for periodontally compromised patients.

Friedrich Althoffs Berufungspraxis in der evangelischen Theologie. Hermann Cremer und Adolf Harnack als Protagonisten des „Systems Althoff“

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-81
Author(s):  
Claudia Kampmann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Main Body ◽  
Political Climate

Abstract The article deals with the so-called „System Althoff“, that is the network of advisers Friedrich Althoff, ministerial director of the Prussian ministry of cultural affairs, created and employed in order to administer the faculties of theology at Prussian universities. In addition to leading the process of decision making in the ministry itself, he recruited a number of theology professors from the two dominant Church parties to advise him on appointing new professors. Famously, he consulted the opponents Hermann Cremer, a “positive” biblicistic Systematic professor in Greifswald, and Adolf Harnack, a Ritschlian Church Historian in Berlin, but he also counted theologians like Friedrich Loofs and Martin Kähler among his advisers. The article’s main body focusses on Althoff’s correspondence with Cremer and Harnack in order to analyse the minister’s practice of administration in depth. In a second step the paper will relate the minister’s relationship with his two most prominent theological advisers to the wider „System Althoff“ in theology. Both parts serve to show that Althoff rationalized and professionalized the process of decision making in the ministry of cultural affairs by carefully considering different professorial advises in light of the current (church) political climate.

scholarly journals Infection dynamics and persistence of hepatitis E virus on pig farms – a review

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Meester ◽  
T. J. Tobias ◽  
M. Bouwknegt ◽  
N. E. Kusters ◽  
J. A. Stegeman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Hepatitis E Virus ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Hepatitis E ◽  
Main Body ◽  
Genotype 3 ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Pig Farms ◽  
Slaughter Pigs

Abstract Background Hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotype 3 and 4 is a zoonosis that causes hepatitis in humans. Humans can become infected by consumption of pork or contact with pigs. Pigs are the main reservoir of the virus worldwide and the virus is present on most pig farms. Main body Though HEV is present on most farms, the proportion of infected pigs at slaughter and thus the level of exposure to consumers differs between farms and countries. Understanding the cause of that difference is necessary to install effective measures to lower HEV in pigs at slaughter. Here, HEV studies are reviewed that include infection dynamics of HEV in pigs and on farms, risk factors for HEV farm prevalence, and that describe mechanisms and sources that could generate persistence on farms. Most pigs become infected after maternal immunity has waned, at the end of the nursing or beginning of the fattening phase. Risk factors increasing the likelihood of a high farm prevalence or proportion of actively infected slaughter pigs comprise of factors such as farm demographics, internal and external biosecurity and immunomodulating coinfections. On-farm persistence of HEV is plausible, because of a high transmission rate and a constant influx of susceptible pigs. Environmental sources of HEV that enhance persistence are contaminated manure storages, water and fomites. Conclusion As HEV is persistently present on most pig farms, current risk mitigation should focus on lowering transmission within farms, especially between farm compartments. Yet, one should be aware of the paradox of increasing the proportion of actively infected pigs at slaughter by reducing transmission insufficiently. Vaccination of pigs may aid HEV control in the future.

Revenue Sharing Contract of Green Supply Chain under Manufacturer Risk-Aversion

2014 ◽  
Vol 697 ◽  
pp. 482-487
Author(s):  
Shi Ying Jiang ◽  
Chun Yan Ma
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Stackelberg Game ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Revenue Sharing ◽  
Green Supply Chain ◽  
Game Model ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Revenue Sharing Contract

Background on two stages green supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer, considering the degree of risk aversion and product greenness, consumer preferences and other factors, the centralized decision-making game model and manufacturer-leading Stackelberg game model are established.Then two game models are compared. The interaction of product greenness, wholesale price, product price,and risk aversion utility for manufacturers and retailers are also disscussed. Finally, the revenue sharing contract is applied to coordinate the green supply chain . The results show that:(1) In the centralized decision-making model, there is a critical value of the product green degree; (2)In manufacturer-leading Stackelberg game model, the higher the green degree of the product, the higher the manufacturer's wholesale price,and the wholesale price increases as risk aversion degree of manufacturers improves;(3)The revenue sharing contract can coordinate this type of green supply chain under manufacturers risk-averse.

scholarly journals Financing and pricing strategies of construction supply chain under capital constraint

2021 ◽  
Vol 336 ◽  
pp. 09004
Author(s):  
Yuxin Wen ◽  
Linyi Wu ◽  
Fengmin Yao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Stackelberg Game ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Pricing Strategies ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Pricing Decision ◽  
Decentralized Decision Making ◽  
Internal Financing ◽  
Decision Making Model

Affected by factors such as cost, the financial constraints faced by the supply chain are becoming more and more severe. This paper constructs a financing and pricing decision-making model for the construction supply chain under capital constraints, and uses Stackelberg game theory to analyze and obtain the best financing and pricing strategy for the construction supply chain under the internal and external financing modes. The study found that when centralized decision-making is adopted, there is a profit distribution model that makes the profits obtained by construction developers and contractors greater than the profits obtained in decentralized decision-making; the internal financing model of the construction supply chain is better than external financing, and can enable the construction supply chain get higher profits.

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