Dynamic Interaction Between Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Stock Prices in Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 66
Author(s):  
Mostafa Ali ◽  
Gang Sun ◽  
Mohammed Ali Arshad Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to investigate whether dynamics in fundamental macroeconomic factors significantly influence the stock prices of Bangladesh by applying cointegration test, Granger causality test based on the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Analysis. Johansen and Juselius cointegration test detect six cointegrating vectors and a short-run and long-run relationship is investigated by normalizing the first cointegrating vector corresponding to the largest Eigen-value. We find a long-run positive relationship between stock price and IP, CPI, EX, and RT but a negative relationship between stock price and M2 and interest rate (both TB & GB). Empirical findings of this study reveal that no macroeconomic variables except TB Granger cause stock price in short run. Variance Decomposition analysis shows that most of the stock price variance can be explained by its own shocks in the shorter horizon but its magnitude diminishes over the long horizon which is about 26.77% after 24 months.  Therefore, empirical results suggest that stock prices are weakly exogenous relative to the macroeconomic variables. Findings of the study have important implications to market participants and financial analysts when they have chosen to invest in Bangladesh stock market.

The Linkage between Chittagong Stock Market and Dhaka Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahidullah Tasfiq ◽  
◽  
Nasrin Jahan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Variance Decomposition Analysis

This paper aims at determining the relationship between the two domestic stock markets of Bangladesh – the Chittagong Stock Market (CSE) and the Dhaka Stock Market (DSE). The daily stock price indices that represent the performance of the two stock markets are collected. In order to find out the interdependent relationship, the Engle-Granger Cointegration test, Granger Causality test, Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decomposition Analysis are employed in this paper. The main finding of this study is that both the stock markets are related in the long run. However, there is a one-way short-run effect from the DSE on the CSE market. The CSE market quickly responds to the shock in the DSE market. But, the DSE market is not responsive to the CSE market. The variance decomposition analysis shows that most of the shocks in the CSE market are explained by its own market. On the other hand, a small number of shocks in the DSE market are explained by the CSE market as well as its own market.

Dynamic analysis of the relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bisharat Hussain Chang ◽  
Muhammad Saeed Meo ◽  
Qasim Raza Syed ◽  
Zahida Abro
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Period Data ◽  
Variance Decomposition Analysis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is of twofold: first, to empirically examine the short-run and long-run impact of macroeconomic variables such as industrial production, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade balance (TB), exchange rate, interest rate (IR) and consumer price index (CPI) on stock prices (SP) of KSE-100 index; and second, to examine whether this relationship changes as a result of the financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach This study uses an autoregressive distributed lag model by using the full sample period data from 1997Q3 to 2018Q2 and the post-crisis period data from 2008Q3 to 2018Q2. Moreover, it uses variance decomposition analysis to examine the importance of each variable in explaining SP. Findings The findings of the full sample period indicate that in the long run, TB, exchange rate and IR negatively affect SP whereas CPI and industrial production positively affect SP. However, the post-crisis period data indicate that only CPI positively affects the SP in the long run. Finally, variance decomposition analysis indicates 30 percent variance in SP is explained by its own shock. Practical implications The study findings suggest that macroeconomic variables have a significant role and can be considered important for taking investment and/or policy decisions. Especially, Governments and other regulators may need to take measures to increase the TB since it can help to increase the performance of the Pakistani stock market. Furthermore, investors may consider that findings change when the financial crisis has been taken into consideration. Originality/value This study uses two additional variables, namely FDI and TB by using the robust technique in the context of emerging countries like Pakistan. Furthermore, it takes into account the impact of the financial crisis on the underlying variables.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Giri ◽  
Pooja Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe purpose of the present study is to examine the long run and the short run relationship between stock price and a set of macroeconomic variables for Indian economy using annual data from 1979 to 2014. The long run relationship is examined by implementing the ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration. VECM method is used to test the short and long run causality and variance decomposition is used to predict long run exogenous shocks of the variables. The results confirm a long run relationship among the variables. Evidence suggests that Economic growth, inflation and exchange rate influence stock prices positively. However, crude oil price influences the stock price negatively. This implies that the increase in oil price induces inflationary expectation in the mind of investors and hence stock prices are adversely affected. The VECM result indicates that short run and long run unidirectional causality running from economic growth and FDI to stock prices in India. The result of the variance decomposition shows that stock market development in India is mostly explained by its own shocks. The Government can take steps to control the crude oil price in India and Investors’ confidence has to be gained by boosting the economic growth of the economy through appropriate policy tools.

scholarly journals Cointegration and Causality between Macroeconomic variables and Stock Prices: Empirical Analysis from Indian Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pooja Joshi ◽  
A. K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Test

<p class="ber"><span lang="EN-IN">The study aims at examining how fiscal fundamental macroeconomic variables affect the performance of the stock market in India by using monthly data from April 2004- July 2015. The study makes use of Ng-Perron unit root tests to check the non-stationarity property of the series; the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for testing both short and long run dynamic relationships. The variance decomposition (VDC) is used to predict the exogenous shocks of the variables. The findings of the bounds test </span><span lang="EN-GB">confirm that there exists a long-run co-integrating relationship between different macroeconomic variables and the stock prices in India. The ARDL result suggests a long-run negative relationship exists between crude oil prices, inflation and stock prices. The results of the influence of both the variables on stock prices are consistent in the short run as well. The results of the short-run estimation confirm positive and significant relationship for Gold, T-bill rates and Real Effective Exchange Rate. The VECM result shows a bidirectional causality is running between Inflation and CNX nifty index. Further, the result indicates the presence of long run causality for the equation with a CNX nifty index as the dependent variable. The results of VDC analysis and IRF show that a major percentage of stock prices change is its own innovative shocks. The study implies that appropriate policy measures should be taken by the proficient authorities for the purpose of controlling inflation, which ultimately leads to the control of volatility of the stock market.</span></p>

A Sectoral Analysis of the Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indian Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 911-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study examines the relationship between Indian stock market and economic growth from a sectoral perspective using quarterly time-series data from 2003:Q4 to 2014:Q4. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach bounds test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and sector-specific stock indices. The empirical results reveal that sector-specific economic growth are significantly influenced by changes in the respective sector-specific stock price indices in the long run as well as in the short run. Apart from that, the control variables, such as trade openness and inflation, act as the instrument variables in explaining the variations in the sector-specific GDP of the economy. The results of Granger causality test demonstrate unidirectional long-run as well as short-run causality running from sector specific stock prices to respective sector GDP. The findings suggest that economic growth of the country is sensitive to respective sub-sector stock market investments. The findings highlight the reasons for cyclical and counter-cyclical business phase for the overall economy.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Returns Revisited

2020 ◽  
Vol 03 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Feifei Wang ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Real ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

I revisit the relation between macroeconomic activities and stock prices by selecting the most important macroeconomic variables that are appropriate for analyzing their impact on stock returns. Using vector autogressive models (VAR), combined with co integration analysis and the vector error correction model (VECM) I estimate the explanatory power of each macroeconomic variable on the variations of the stock prices and distinguish the short-run from long-run movements among all key macroeconomic variables. I find that (1) in the short-run macroeconomic variables do not appear help explain changes in stock returns, (2) in the long-run the real interest rate and industrial production are the most important macroeconomic factors, and (3) in the long-term the real economic activity and stock returns Granger-cause each other.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Price Adjustment: Are IPO Prices too "Sticky"?

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Adams ◽  
Barry Thornton ◽  
Russ Baker
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Price Adjustment ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Long Run ◽  
New Information ◽  
Short Run

The study of IPO mispricing is salient because it raises important questions concerning market efficiency and the existence of systematic stock patterns that can be employed by investors to generate excess market returns. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the informational efficiency of IPO market prices with respect to the first 3 trading day’s return and to examine the effect of varying investor sentiment on this information efficiency.  Under traditional definitions of market efficiency, asset prices, including IPO prices should fully reflect all available and relevant information (Fama 1970).  An increasing body of empirical evidence, however, suggests that IPO prices are not efficient as evidenced both in the short run and the long run.  The speed of incorporation of new information into stock prices is critical to many central issues in financial research, such as market efficiency, arbitrage, and market structure. This paper analyzes the speed of price adjustment to information events for IPOs. The setting of the immediate aftermarket presents an opportunity to investigate the issue when little or no trading history exists. In such a setting, investors are more exposed to new information because they cannot observe the stock price behavior or the reactions to previous information signals.

scholarly journals THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND REAL STOCK PRICES: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH AFRICA

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 600-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riona Arjoon ◽  
Mariëtte Botes ◽  
Laban K. Chesang ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Positive Real ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Price Response ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Real Value

The existing literature on the theoretical relationship between the rate of inflation and real stock prices in an economy has shown varied predictions about the long run effects of inflation on real stock prices. In this paper, we present some time series evidence on this issue using South African data, by applying the structural bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology proposed by King and Watson (1997). Our empirical results provide considerable support of the view that, in the long run real stock prices are invariant to permanent changes in the rate of inflation. The impulse responses reveal a positive real stock price response to a permanent inflation shock in the long run, indicating that any deviations in short run real stock prices will be corrected towards the long run value. It is therefore concluded that inflation does not lower the real value of stocks in South Africa, at least in the long run.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Kuwait

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad M. Al-Kandari ◽  
Sadeq J. Abul
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Impact

The Kuwaiti Stock Exchange was established in April 1977 and is among the oldest stock exchanges in the GCC countries. This study aims to add new evidence about the impact of macroeconomic factors on the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange. It examines empirically the dynamic relationship between the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange Index and the main macroeconomic variables. These variables included M2, the three-month deposit interest rate, oil prices, the US Dollar vs Kuwaiti Dinar exchange rate and the inflation rate. By applying the Johansen cointegration test, together with the Var Error Correction Model (VECM), the study found that there a long-run unidirectional relationship exists between the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange Index and the aforementioned macroeconomic variables. This study also confirmed the existence of a short-run relationship between oil prices and stock prices in Kuwait.

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