The price of success : unified government and midterm elections

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Holt
Keyword(s):  
Midterm Elections

A Trump Effect? Women and the 2018 Midterm Elections

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 569-590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Lawless ◽  
Richard L. Fox
Keyword(s):  
Gender Gap ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Political Ambition ◽  
Candidate Emergence ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Negative Feelings

Abstract From the moment Donald Trump took the oath of office, women’s political engagement skyrocketed. This groundswell of activism almost immediately led to widespread reporting that Trump’s victory was inspiring a large new crop of female candidates across the country. We rely on a May 2017 national survey of “potential candidates” and the 2018 midterm election results to assess whether this “Trump Effect” materialized. Our analysis uncovers some evidence for it. Democrats – especially women – held very negative feelings toward Trump, and those feelings generated heightened political interest and activity during the 2018 election cycle. That activism, however, was not accompanied by a broad scale surge in women’s interest in running for office. In fact, the overall gender gap in political ambition today is quite similar to the gap we’ve uncovered throughout the last 20 years. Notably, though, about one quarter of the Democratic women who expressed interest in running for office first started thinking about it only after Trump was elected. That relatively small group of newly interested candidates was sufficient to result in a record number of Democratic women seeking and winning election to Congress. With no commensurate increase in Republican women’s political engagement or candidate emergence, however, prospects for gender parity in US political institutions remain bleak.

scholarly journals US midterm elections: Opponents battle health-care research

Nature ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 467 (7317) ◽  
pp. 763-763 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Ledford
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Health Care Research ◽  
Care Research ◽  
Midterm Elections

scholarly journals PREDICTION FOR THE 2012 UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-97
Author(s):  
Pankaj Sinha ◽  
Aastha Sharma Aastha Sharma ◽  
Harsh Vardhan Singh
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Midterm Elections

This paper investigates the factors responsible for predicting 2012 U.S. Presidential election. Though contemporary discussions on Presidential election mention that unemployment rate will be a deciding factor in this election, it is found that unemployment rate is not significant for predicting the forthcoming Presidential election. Except GDP growth rate, various other economic factors like interest rate, inflation, public debt, change in oil and gold prices, budget deficit/surplus and exchange rate are also not significant for predicting the U.S. Presidential election outcome. Lewis-Beck and Rice (1982) proposed Gallup rating, obtained in June of the election year, as a significant indicator for forecasting the Presidential election. However, the present study finds that even though there exists a relationship between June Gallup rating and incumbent vote share in the Presidential election, the Gallup rating cannot be used as the sole indicator of the Presidential elections. Various other non-economic factors like scandals linked to the incumbent President and the performance of the two parties in the midterm elections are found to be significant. We study the influence of the above economic and non-economic variables on voting behavior in U.S. Presidential elections and develop a suitable regression model for predicting the 2012 U.S. Presidential election. The emergence of new non-economic factors reflects the changing dynamics of U.S. Presidential election outcomes. The proposed model forecasts that the Democrat candidate Mr. Barack Obama is likely to get a vote percentage between 51.818 % - 54.239 %, with 95% confidence interval.

scholarly journals Electoral Disinformation: Looking Through the Lens of Tsek.ph Fact Checks

Plaridel ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 285-295
Author(s):  
Yvonne Chua ◽  
Jake Soriano
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Fertile Ground ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
The Media ◽  
Fact Checking

Elections are fertile ground for disinformation. The 2019 midterm elections, like the 2016 presidential election, buttress this observation. This ugly side of electoral contests is documented by Tsek.ph, a pioneering collaborative fact-checking initiative launched by three universities and eleven newsrooms specifically for the midterms. Its repository of fact checks provides valuable insights into the nature of electoral disinformation before, during and after the elections. Clearly, electoral disinformation emanates from candidates and supporters alike, on conventional (e.g., speeches and sorties) and digital (e.g., social media) platforms. Its wide range of victims includes the media no less.

The Welfare State, Turnout, and the Economy: A Comparative Analysis

1992 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 444-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Radcliff
Keyword(s):  
Welfare State ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Middle Range ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Welfare State Development ◽  
The Welfare State

While the economic voting literature is voluminous, comparatively little attention has been paid to the question of how—or whether—the economy affects turnout. I address this issue by examining national elections in 29 countries. Using time series data, the initial findings are replicated by a case study of American presidential and midterm elections since 1896. It is argued that the effect of economic adversity depends upon the degree of welfare state development. This relationship is argued to be nonlinear, so that mobilization occurs at either extreme while withdrawal obtains in the middle range. The importance to democratic theory, the study of elections, and the politics of welfare policy are discussed.

Social media news deserts: Digital inequalities and incidental news exposure on social media platforms

2021 ◽  
pp. 146144482110595
Author(s):  
Matthew Barnidge ◽  
Michael A Xenos
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Digital Inequality ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Online Networks ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Incidental Exposure ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Civic Skills ◽  
New Form

Some people live in social media “news deserts,” while others are embedded in online networks that are rich in news content. These news deserts represent a new form of digital inequality—distinct from problems of access, resources, or civic skills—that could foreclose one of the ways social media are believed to contribute to informing citizens and engaging them in democratic processes: providing opportunities for incidental news exposure. This study investigates incidental exposure on social media platforms, drawing on an online survey administered just before the 2018 US Midterm Elections ( N = 1493). The study finds that even after controlling for key individual-level factors, characteristics of social media discussion networks play a role in explaining variation in incidental exposure. The results are discussed in light of prevailing theory about incidental exposure, public engagement, and digital inequalities.

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