scholarly journals Effects of the fiscal policy on macroeconomic outcomes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Ivan Enrique Davila Fadul
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Baseline Model ◽  
Fiscal Multiplier ◽  
The Impact

The dissertation consists in three chapters addressing the effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic outcomes. In the first chapter, I take advantage of the scarcity of evidence on the effects of public spending on GDP growth in developing countries. Thus, the main focus is in the top five emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, known as BRICS, that accounts for almost a quarter of world GDP have received little attention. Through an Auto-regressive Panel-Vector (P-VAR) model, using quarterly data from 1997Q1 to 2017Q4, I estimate that the government spending multiplier is 0.145 percent on impact (t=0), and a cumulative multiplier of -0.125 percent percent in 5 years. Also, I analyze how the results of the baseline model vary according to specification adjustments, different order of the variables, and the use of alternative trend removal mechanisms. The robustness analysis shows that the multiplier is sensitive to these changes, which provides evidence of the possible causes of the varied results. In the second chapter, I estimate the local fiscal multiplier using the literature on incumbency status and local spending. The literature suggests that regional authorities seek to in uence their voters through increases in government spending during the election years. Given this, I build an instrument based on term limits and electoral laws established in the Legislatures of the 50 US states and the District of Columbia, to estimate the local fiscal multiplier for the period of 2007-2016. My estimate of the fiscal multiplier in the baseline model is 1.274. Through a robustness check, my estimator uctuates between 1.208 and 1.239. My results are consistent with the estimations in the geographic cross-sectional multipliers literature for the United States. In the third and last chapter, I evaluated the fiscal policy effects in a dollarized Latin American economy such as Ecuador. Therefore, I estimate both the linear and state-dependent impact and cumulative multiplier for the period between 1991Q1 and 2019Q4. The main result shows that the linear impact multiplier is 0.79 and fades in the medium and long term. Furthermore, in expansions and recessions, the impact multiplier is 1.42 and 0.91, respectively. However, the effect disappears in the long run when dealing with expansions. On the other hand, in periods of recession, the cumulative multiplier is 0.64, significantly different from zero at a 90 percent confidence interval. The results suggest that the multipliers are distinct between states at a 5 percent level of significance.

Thinking Transnationally

2019 ◽  
pp. 165-185
Author(s):  
Margarita María Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Educational Opportunity ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Opportunity To Learn ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
Migrant Families ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

Wagner College is participating in a ground-breaking project that brings migrant families together after years of separation. This project has been not only inspirational for both faculty members and students, but is also a great opportunity to learn about forced migration and alternatives to keep families together. The “Transnational Project: San Jerónimo Xayacatlán-Port Richmond” was created to connect communities in both the United States and Mexico and to preserve their cultural identities that have been threatened by forced migration. In this chapter, I would like to present the project focusing on three aspects: the history of the project, the individual stories of members who migrated and of those who stayed in their homeland, and the impact of this educational opportunity in the classroom. I will use a series of interviews with the members of Ñani Migrante (the group formed by the members of both the San Jerónimo and the Port Richmond communities), the presentations of both panels that took place at Wagner College, and the reflections of students who attended them.

Thinking Transnationally

2016 ◽  
pp. 230-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margarita María Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Educational Opportunity ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Opportunity To Learn ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
Migrant Families ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

Wagner College is participating in a ground-breaking project that brings migrant families together after years of separation. This project has been not only inspirational for both faculty members and students, but is also a great opportunity to learn about forced migration and alternatives to keep families together. The “Transnational Project: San Jerónimo Xayacatlán-Port Richmond” was created to connect communities in both the United States and Mexico and to preserve their cultural identities that have been threatened by forced migration. In this chapter, I would like to present the project focusing on three aspects: the history of the project, the individual stories of members who migrated and of those who stayed in their homeland, and the impact of this educational opportunity in the classroom. I will use a series of interviews with the members of Ñani Migrante (the group formed by the members of both the San Jerónimo and the Port Richmond communities), the presentations of both panels that took place at Wagner College, and the reflections of students who attended them.

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahim Chibi ◽  
Sidi Mohamed Chekouri ◽  
Mohamed Benbouziane
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we aim to analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Algeria differs throughout the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy through regimes, defined by the state of the business cycle (recession and boom). The results show small positive government spending and revenue multipliers in the short term in both regimes. Most importantly, fiscal policy shocks have a stronger impact in times of economic recession than in times of expansion, which confirm the hypothesis of asymmetric effects. However, the impact of government spending is stronger than the impact of public revenue during recession periods. In addition, fiscal policy decision-makers interact with Anti-Keynesian view (pro-cyclical). Our results imply that there is something to gain by using the "right instrument" at the "right time".

scholarly journals A Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Salmonellosis from Consumption of Walnuts in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 82 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
SOFIA M. SANTILLANA FARAKOS ◽  
RÉGIS POUILLOT ◽  
GORDON R. DAVIDSON ◽  
RHOMA JOHNSON ◽  
INSOOK SON ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
The United States ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
World Health ◽  
Baseline Model ◽  
Log Reduction ◽  
Human Salmonellosis ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT We assessed the risk of human salmonellosis from consumption of shelled walnuts in the United States and the impact of 0- to 5-log reduction treatments for Salmonella during processing. We established a baseline model with Salmonella contamination data from 2010 to 2013 surveys of walnuts from California operations to estimate baseline prevalence and levels of Salmonella during preshelling storage and typical walnut processing stages, considered U.S. consumption data, and applied an adapted dose-response model from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization to evaluate risk of illness per serving and per year. Our baseline model predicted 1 case of salmonellosis per 100 million servings (95% confidence interval [CI], 1 case per 3 million to 1 case per 2 billion servings) of walnuts untreated during processing and uncooked by consumers, resulting in an estimated 6 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI, <1 to 278 cases) in the United States. A minimum 3-log reduction treatment for Salmonella during processing of walnuts eaten alone or as an uncooked ingredient resulted in a mean risk of <1 case per year. We modeled the impact on risk per serving of three atypical situations in which the Salmonella levels were increased by 0.5 to 1.5 log CFU per unit pretreatment during processing at the float tank or during preshelling storage or posttreatment during partitioning into consumer packages. No change in risk was associated with the small increase in levels of Salmonella at the float tank, whereas an increase in risk was estimated for each of the other two atypical events. In a fourth scenario, we estimated the risk per serving associated with consumption of walnuts with Salmonella prevalence and levels from a 2014 to 2015 U.S. retail survey. Risk per serving estimates were two orders of magnitude larger than those of the baseline model without treatment. Further research is needed to determine whether this finding reflects variability in Salmonella contamination across the supply or a rare event affecting a portion of the supply.

scholarly journals The South African tax mix and economic growth

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 201-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
AH De Wet ◽  
NJ Schoeman ◽  
SF Koch
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
South African ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Indirect Taxation ◽  
Size Of Government ◽  
Direct Taxation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Direct Tax

The research reported in this paper suggests that government fiscal policy can influence economic growth through alterations in the tax mix and the overall size of government spending.   The authors estimate the impact on economic growth of changes in fiscal policy via government expenditure, direct taxation and indirect taxation.  The results show that economic growth is negatively affected by increases in the size of government, as reflected in its expenditures and direct tax revenues, although significant indirect tax effects are not found.     

scholarly journals Corruption, fiscal policy, and growth: a unified approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sugata Ghosh ◽  
Kyriakos C. Neanidis
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Unified Approach ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Bureaucratic Corruption ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe study the effects of bureaucratic corruption on fiscal policy and economic growth, where corruption (i) reduces the tax revenue raised from households, (ii) inflates the volume of government spending, and (iii) reduces the productivity of “effective” government expenditure. We distinguish between the policies pursued by (a) a non-optimizing, and (b) an optimizing government. For both cases, corruption leads to higher income tax and inflation rates and a lower level of government spending, thus hindering growth. In the circumstances, an activist government could allocate its resources in attempting to reduce the type of corruption that harms growth the most. Finally, the findings from our unified framework could rationalize the sometimes conflicting empirical evidence on the impact of corruption on growth in the literature.

Brazilian Foreign Policy and the Dominican Crisis: The Impact of History and Events

1972 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-77
Author(s):  
Ralph G. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Latin American ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Santo Domingo ◽  
American Military ◽  
The Impact ◽  
American Nation

On May 24, 1965, nearly a month after the first U. S. Marines landed in Santo Domingo, an inter-American military force under the command of a Brazilian general took over peacekeeping activities in the Dominican Republic. Although the first Brazilian contingent to arrive comprised only 300 troops, it later reached a total of 1,250, the largest contribution by a single Latin American nation. While Brazil's participation in the Dominican crisis was a clear indication that the independent foreign policy of Quadros and Goulart had been discarded in favor of a realignment once again with the United States, it also signified an abrupt departure from one of the basic tenets of Brazilian foreign policy—nonintervention. The case study of Brazil's role in the Dominican Republic in 1965 which follows provides a unique opportunity to examine the impact of traditional forces and contemporary events on Brazilian foreign policy at a critical juncture in that nation's history.

scholarly journals Comparison of Nominal and Real Rigidities: Fiscal Policy Perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-76
Author(s):  
Piotr Krajewski
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
Wage Rigidity ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Strong Positive Relationship ◽  
Polish Economy ◽  
Consumer Habits ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of nominal and real rigidities in the economy on the effects of fiscal policy. The study confirmed the hypothesis that both nominal and real rigidities enhance the impact of fiscal policy on the Polish economy. In the case of nominal price rigidity it was found that the impact of government spending on GDP depends on the conduct of monetary policy. On the other hand, under conditions of wage rigidity, the strength of fiscal multipliers depends on the slope of the labour supply curve. The study also examined two types of real rigidities - lack of access to the credit market, and consumer habits. Analyses show that the above rigidities result primarily in a strong positive relationship between government spending and the level of consumption.

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