Analysis of expert and official oil price forecasts

2018 ◽  
pp. 26-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. T. Gurvich ◽  
I. V. Prilepskiy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Leading Position ◽  
Market Fundamentals ◽  
Energy Information

The article studies the factors affecting formation of oil price forecasts by leading expert and official organizations (International Energy Agency, US Energy Information Administration, World Bank, OPEC, RF Ministry of Economic Development). It is demonstrated that all these forecasts take into account both oil market fundamentals and the current conjuncture, but the significance of these factors differs by agency. Non-linear dependence between forecast accuracy and horizon length is identified. The error is greatest for the projections 6 to 8 years ahead, which may be explained by the mismatch between the linear nature of the forecasts and the actual cyclical oil price dynamics during the last 50 years. Accuracy of short- to medium-term projections by the Ministry of Economic Development is shown to hold a median position among forecasting agencies, with the leading position held by the US Energy Information Administration.

scholarly journals Old King Coal

2002 ◽  
Vol 124 (08) ◽  
pp. 41-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Hutchinson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Plant Feeding ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gasification Plant ◽  
Energy Information

This article focuses on the US Energy Information Administration estimates that coal generates 34 percent of the world's electricity today and will still account for more than 30 percent in 2020. The backers of coal say that systems can be—and must be—developed to make coal more efficient to burn and less troublesome to the biosphere. The United States is also a supporter of the International Energy Agency and is one of the member countries that support IEA Coal Research, a program based in London. The plan for a gasification plant feeding a combined-cycle generating station is still in the demonstration stage in the United States. Although the process squeezes more efficiency out of coal and scores points for cleaner air and corporate goodwill, prospective buyers have yet to form a line around the block. New sources in Venezuela, which has South America’s mother lode of petroleum, have come onto the market, and competition is driving down coke prices.

scholarly journals Desacoplamento entre as Emissões de CO2 e o PIB

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-53
Author(s):  
Yves Rocha De Salles Lima ◽  
Tatiane Stellet Machado ◽  
Joao Jose de Assis Rangel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
The Us ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The One

The objetive of this work is to analyze the variation of CO2 emissions and GDP per capita throughout the years and identify the possible interaction between them. For this purpose, data from the International Energy Agency was collected on two countries, Brazil and the one with the highest GDP worldwide, the United States. Thus, the results showed that CO2 emissions have been following the country’s economic growth for many years. However, these two indicators have started to decouple in the US in 2007 while in Brazil the same happened in 2011. Furthermore, projections for CO2 emissions are made until 2040, considering 6 probable scenarios. These projections showed that even if the oil price decreases, the emissions will not be significantly affected as long as the economic growth does not decelerate.

scholarly journals Küresel Enerji Jeopolitiğinde Türkiye: Fırsatlar ve Riskler / The Position of Turkey in Global Energy Geopolitics: Opportunities and Risks

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 948
Author(s):  
Muhammed Oral ◽  
Ünal Özdemir
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
British Petroleum ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas

<p><strong>Abstract</strong></p><p>Turkey has various social, economic, cultural and geostrategic advantages and opportunities thanks to its location. However, it is also located between the Middle East, Balkans, and Caucasus, which are among the most depraved and unstable places in the world. This brings geopolitical risks to Turkey.</p><p>With respect to energy geography, Turkey draws attention both as a center and as a natural route country that connects supply and demand territories. More than 70% of the world’s oil and natural gas reserves and about 30% of global consumption currently take place in Europe. Accordingly, Turkey is a terminal country with its energy demand security for resource territories and with its energy supply security for supply territories.</p><p>The purpose of this study is to discuss the roles of Turkey with its strategic location in the energy geopolitics centered on oil and natural gas. The study uses the data provided by organizations that engage in significant international and national activities in the industry such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), British Petroleum (BP), World Energy Council (WEC), and the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Thus, this study uses a quantitative research method through the collection and analysis of secondary data. </p><p><strong>Öz</strong></p><p>Türkiye konum itibariyle sosyal, ekonomik, kültürel ve jeostratejik açıdan çeşitli avantajlara/fırsatlara sahiptir. Ancak söz konusu coğrafya, aynı zamanda dünyanın en buhranlı, istikrarsız mekânlarından olan Orta Doğu, Balkanlar ve Kafkaslar bölgesinde yer almaktadır. Bu durum Türkiye için jeopolitik riskleri de beraberinde getirmektedir.</p><p>Enerji Coğrafyası özelinde ise Türkiye, bir merkez ve arz-talep coğrafyalarını birleştiren doğal bir güzergâh ülkesi olarak dikkat çekmektedir. Mevcut durum itibariyle dünya petrol ve doğal gaz rezervlerinin %70’ten fazlası ve küresel tüketimin yaklaşık %30’u Avrupa tüketim coğrafyasında gerçekleşmektedir. Buna göre Türkiye, kaynak coğrafyaları için enerji talep güvenliği, arz coğrafyaları için de enerji arz güvenliği yönüyle terminal bir ülkedir.</p><p>Bu çalışmanın amacı, stratejik bir noktada konumlanan Türkiye’nin petrol ve doğal gaz eksenli oluşan enerji jeopolitiğinde ne gibi rollere sahip olduğunu tartışmaktır. Araştırmada; IEA, EIA, BP, WEC, ETKB gibi sektörde uluslararası ve ulusal ölçekte önemli çalışmalar yürüten kuruluşların verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Dolayısıyla araştırmada ikincil verilerin elde edilmesi ve değerlendirilmesi çerçevesinde nicel metot uygulanmıştır.</p>

scholarly journals OIL PRICE FORECASTS FOR THE LONG TERM: EXPERT OUTLOOKS, MODELS, OR BOTH?

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 581-599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Thomas Bernard ◽  
Lynda Khalaf ◽  
Maral Kichian ◽  
Clement Yelou
Keyword(s):  
Oil Price ◽  
System Model ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Combining Forecasts ◽  
Future Path ◽  
Energy Information

Little is known about the accuracy of expert outlooks, so heavily relied upon by industry participants and policy makers, regarding the future path of oil prices. Using the regular publications by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), we examine the accuracy of annual recursive oil price forecasts generated by the National Energy Modeling System model of the Agency for forecast horizons of up to 15 years. Our results reveal that the EIA model outperforms the benchmark random walk model around the two ends of the forecast horizon spectrum. Additionally, at the longer horizons, simple econometric forecasting models often produce similar, if not better accuracy than the EIA model. Time varying such specifications generally also exhibit stability in their forecast performance. Finally, although combining forecasts does not change the overall patterns, some additional accuracy gains are obtained at intermediate horizons, and in some cases, forecast performance stability is also achieved.

Preliminary report on the International Energy Agency mode of occurrence inter-laboratory comparison; Phase I, USGS results

1999 ◽  
Author(s):  
Curtis A. Palmer ◽  
Allan Kolker ◽  
Jason C. Willett ◽  
Stanley J. Mroczkowski ◽  
Robert B. Finkelman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase I ◽  
Preliminary Report ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Mode Of Occurrence

Competition, cooperation, and adaptation: The organizational ecology of international organizations in global energy governance

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Christian Downie
Keyword(s):  
Global Governance ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Shared Governance ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Organizational Ecology ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Material Resources ◽  
Energy Governance

Abstract In policy domains characterised by complexity, international organizations (IOs) with overlapping mandates and governance functions regularly interact in ways that have important implications for global governance. Yet the dynamics of IO interactions remain understudied. This article breaks new ground by building on the theoretical insights of organizational ecology to examine IO competition, cooperation, and adaptation in the domain of energy. Drawing on original empirical data, I consider three related hypotheses: (1) competition between IOs in the same population is likely to centre on material resources; (2) IOs are more likely to cooperate when they have a shared governance goal; and (3) individual IOs can adapt by changing their goals and boundaries. In considering these hypotheses, this article highlights the limits of the organizational ecology approach and the need to broaden it to account for the possibility that IOs do cooperate, and that individual IOs, such as the International Energy Agency, have the capacity to adapt to changes in their environment.

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