scholarly journals Can emerging markets be a source of global troubles again?

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Dabrowski
Keyword(s):  
Currency Crises ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Political Costs ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Expectations

After two turbulent decades (1980s and 1990s) when emerging-market economies were frequent victims of financial crises, in the first two decades of the 21st century their macroeconomic performance improved. Nevertheless, there were three crisis episodes that hit some of these countries: (i) the spill-over effects of the global financial crisis in 2008–2009; (ii) the consequences of the decline in commodity prices in 2014–2016 for their exporters; (iii) the turbulence in Argentina and Turkey in 2018. Currency crises in Argentina and Turkey in 2018 underlined again the key role of prudent domestic policies. Early policy correction can help to prevent a crisis and avoid its economic, social and political costs. If crisis cannot be avoided, the comprehensive anti-crisis package, including up-front monetary and fiscal adjustment, should be adopted as quickly as possible to arrest market panic and reverse negative expectations.

scholarly journals Global macroeconomic cooperation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: a roadmap for the G20 and the IMF

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S297-S337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warwick McKibbin ◽  
David Vines
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
First Year ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Fiscal Support ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The International Monetary Fund ◽  
Striking Contrast

Abstract The COVID-19 crisis has caused the greatest collapse in global economic activity since 1720. Some advanced countries have mounted a massive fiscal response, both to pay for disease-fighting action and to preserve the incomes of firms and workers until the economic recovery is under way. But there are many emerging market economies which have been prevented from doing what is needed by their high existing levels of public debt and—especially—by the external financial constraints which they face. We argue in the present paper that there is a need for international cooperation to allow such countries to undertake the kind of massive fiscal response that all countries now need, and that many advanced countries have been able to carry out. We show what such cooperation would involve. We use a global macroeconomic model to explore how extraordinarily beneficial such cooperation would be. Simulations of the model suggest that GDP in the countries in which extra fiscal support takes place would be around two and a half per cent higher in the first year, and that GDP in other countries in the world be more than one per cent higher. So far, such cooperation has been notably lacking, in striking contrast with what happened in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. The necessary cooperation needs to be led by the Group of Twenty (G20), just as happened in 2008–9, since the G20 brings together the leaders of the world’s largest economies. This cooperation must also necessarily involve a promise of international financial support from the International Monetary Fund, otherwise international financial markets might take fright at the large budget deficits and current account deficits which will emerge, creating fiscal crises and currency crises and so causing such expansionary policies which we advocate to be brought to an end.

scholarly journals The Macroprudential Role of International Reserves

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 570-573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Jeanne
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
International Banking ◽  
Flow Management ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

There has been a lot of interest since the global financial crisis in policies allowing emerging market economies to smooth the effects of the global financial cycle. Although the literature has focused mostly on capital controls emerging market governments have relied mostly on international reserves management. This paper discusses the role of reserves in capital flow management based on a simple welfare-based model of capital flows with international banking frictions.

Book Reviews

2012 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 821-823
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Financial Policies ◽  
Global Affairs ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Ashoka Mody of International Monetary Fund reviews “Growth with Financial Stability: Central Banking in an Emerging Market” by Rakesh Mohan. The EconLit abstract of the reviewed work begins: Explores the evolving roles of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies in India and their interaction and adaptation since India's independence, focusing on reforms since the early 1990s. Discusses the growth record of the Indian economy -- a story of sustained savings and investment; sustaining growth with stability -- the role of fiscal and monetary policies; innovation and growth -- role of the financial sector; development of banking and financial markets in India -- fostering growth while containing risk; development of the Indian debt market; financial inclusion in India; communication in central banks -- a perspective; volatile capital flows and Indian monetary policy; liberalization and regulation of capital flows -- lessons for emerging market economies; the global financial crisis -- causes, impact, policy responses, and lessons; emerging contours of financial regulation -- challenges and dynamics; and economic reforms in India --where we are and where we go. Mohan is Professor in the Practice of International Economics and Finance with the School of Management and Senior Fellow at the Jackson Institute of Global Affairs at Yale University. Index.

scholarly journals Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (229) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kareem Ismail ◽  
Roberto Perrelli ◽  
Jessie Yang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Strong Correlation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Arrangements ◽  
Policy Adjustments ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Are IMF growth forecasts systematically optimistic? And if so, what is the role of planned policy adjustments on this outcome? Are program forecasts as biased as surveillance forecasts? We try to answer these questions using a comprehensive database on IMF forecasts of economic growth in surveillance and program cases during 2003–2017. We find that large planned fiscal and external adjustments are associated with optimistic growth projections, with significant non-linearities for both program and surveillance cases. Specifically, we find evidence that larger planned fiscal adjustment is associated with higher growth optimism in IMF non-concessional, non-precautionary financial arrangements. Our results show the tendency for optimism has persisted in the period after the Global Financial Crisis. Moreover, the strong correlation between the magnitude of the optimism and expected fiscal consolidation provides a cautionary signal for the post-COVID IMF projections as countries embark on a path of fiscal adjustment.

scholarly journals Development of Banking Activities in Emerging Market Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-43
Author(s):  
O. Narangua
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Advanced Economy ◽  
Emerging Market Countries ◽  
Domestic Banks ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The global financial crisis of 2008 has shown the importance of a sound and profitable banking industry in developed, developing and emerging countries as well. Therefore, it is highly valuable to understand the development of banking activities in emerging market economies not only for evaluating the impact of them for encouraging emerging economies’ growth, but also establish the overall effect of these processes to global financial market. Moreover, during the last few years, the role of the emerging economy in the world economy is increasing substantially due to its economic growth, industrial potentials and a massive supply of resources and labour to the advanced economy countries. The number of researches conducted on the problem concentrated on two opposing opinions stating the foreign banks either encourage overall efficiency or cause financial instability. Despite a huge literature on this topic, the risk foreign banks impose on emerging market countries’ domestic banks should be evaluated in advance. The primary goal of this research work is to evaluate the extent of development of banking activities in emerging market countries and provide an analysis of the performance of emerging market banks. In article the author described the process of development of banking activities in emerging market economy countries.

Becoming the World’s Biggest Market

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irene Spagna
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Credit Default Swaps ◽  
Deregulated Markets ◽  
Otc Derivatives ◽  
Regulatory Uncertainty ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Basic Characteristics ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This chapter analyzes the growth of OTC derivatives before the global financial crisis of 2008 and the role of credit default swaps, in particular, in the near collapse of the global economy. It begins by exploring the basic characteristics of derivatives used as risk management instruments by investors to hedge against or exploit the volatility of asset prices. The analysis further reveals that the pre-crisis period was characterized by a broad-based consensus favoring deregulated markets and globally designed private rules. While not always unanimously supported, permissive public regulatory choices were often encouraged by interest group lobbying, the market-friendly views of many domestic authorities, and concerns about regulatory uncertainty and international competitiveness.

Financialization and state capitalism in Hungary after the Global Financial Crisis

2021 ◽  
pp. 102452942110032
Author(s):  
David Karas
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The State ◽  
State Capitalism ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Whereas the active role of the state in steering financialization is consensual in advanced economies, the financialization of emerging market economies is usually examined through the prism of dependency: this downplays the domestic political functions of financialization and the agency of the state. With the consolidation of state capitalist regimes in the semi-periphery after the Global Financial Crisis, different interpretations emerged – some linking state capitalism with de-financialization, others with coercive projects deepening it. Preferring a more granular and multi-dimensional approach, I analyse how different facets of financialization might represent political risks or opportunities for state capitalist projects: Based on the Hungarian example, I first explain how the constitution of a ‘financial vertical’ after 2010 inaugurated a new mode of statecraft. Second, I show how the financial vertical enabled rentier bargains between state and society after 2015 by deepening the financialization of social policy and housing in response to a looming crisis of competitiveness.

INFLATION TARGETING: IT'S NOT BROKE, IT DOESN'T NEED FIXING, BUT CAN IT SURVIVE?

2010 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 59-80
Author(s):  
PIERRE L. SIKLOS
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Nominal Anchor

Until the end of 2005 there were few outward signs that the inflation targeting (IT) monetary policy strategy was deemed fragile or that the likelihood of abandoning it was high. In light of the severe economic downturn and the global financial crisis that has afflicted most economies around the world since at least 2008, it is worth reconsidering the question of the fragility of the inflation targeting regime. This paper reprises the approach followed in Siklos (2008) but adds important new twists. For example, the present study asks whether the continued survival of IT is due to the fact that some of the central banks in question did take account of changes in financial stress. The answer is no. Indeed, many central banks are seen as enablers of rapid asset price increases. The lesson, however, is not that inflation targeting needs to be repaired. Instead, refinements should be considered to the existing inflation targeting strategy which has evolved considerably since it was first introduced in New Zealand 20 years ago. Most notably, there should be continued emphasis on inflation as the primary nominal anchor of monetary policy, especially in emerging market economies (EME), even if additional duties are assigned to central banks in response to recent events.

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