scholarly journals Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (229) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kareem Ismail ◽  
Roberto Perrelli ◽  
Jessie Yang

Are IMF growth forecasts systematically optimistic? And if so, what is the role of planned policy adjustments on this outcome? Are program forecasts as biased as surveillance forecasts? We try to answer these questions using a comprehensive database on IMF forecasts of economic growth in surveillance and program cases during 2003–2017. We find that large planned fiscal and external adjustments are associated with optimistic growth projections, with significant non-linearities for both program and surveillance cases. Specifically, we find evidence that larger planned fiscal adjustment is associated with higher growth optimism in IMF non-concessional, non-precautionary financial arrangements. Our results show the tendency for optimism has persisted in the period after the Global Financial Crisis. Moreover, the strong correlation between the magnitude of the optimism and expected fiscal consolidation provides a cautionary signal for the post-COVID IMF projections as countries embark on a path of fiscal adjustment.

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Dabrowski

After two turbulent decades (1980s and 1990s) when emerging-market economies were frequent victims of financial crises, in the first two decades of the 21st century their macroeconomic performance improved. Nevertheless, there were three crisis episodes that hit some of these countries: (i) the spill-over effects of the global financial crisis in 2008–2009; (ii) the consequences of the decline in commodity prices in 2014–2016 for their exporters; (iii) the turbulence in Argentina and Turkey in 2018. Currency crises in Argentina and Turkey in 2018 underlined again the key role of prudent domestic policies. Early policy correction can help to prevent a crisis and avoid its economic, social and political costs. If crisis cannot be avoided, the comprehensive anti-crisis package, including up-front monetary and fiscal adjustment, should be adopted as quickly as possible to arrest market panic and reverse negative expectations.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ai-Lian Tan ◽  
Normaz Wana Ismail

In light of the global financial crisis, an extensive implementation of fiscal stimulus packages has triggered an enormous soared of public debt in Europe. While grappling with this albatross, the high debt level has aroused the paramount interest of this study casts doubt on the role of sovereign debt towards the linkage between FDI and economic growth. To this end, this study aims to assess the effects of debt on growth through the channel of FDI in European countries by applying Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation. The empirical findings, by and large, suggest that a lower growth performance is evident with the association of high government debt through foreign investment. In a nutshell, over borrowing of public finance would crowd out private investment and hence stifle economic growth. JEL Classifications Code: F21, F34, F43, G01


Author(s):  
Irene Spagna

This chapter analyzes the growth of OTC derivatives before the global financial crisis of 2008 and the role of credit default swaps, in particular, in the near collapse of the global economy. It begins by exploring the basic characteristics of derivatives used as risk management instruments by investors to hedge against or exploit the volatility of asset prices. The analysis further reveals that the pre-crisis period was characterized by a broad-based consensus favoring deregulated markets and globally designed private rules. While not always unanimously supported, permissive public regulatory choices were often encouraged by interest group lobbying, the market-friendly views of many domestic authorities, and concerns about regulatory uncertainty and international competitiveness.


SAGE Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402098330
Author(s):  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Kai-Hua Wang

This article investigates bubbles in the Chinese film industry to reveal the industry’s boom and bust process that influences employment, citizen’s livelihoods, and even economic growth. We adopt the film stock index to reflect the industry’s trajectory and employ the generalized and backward sup augmented Dickey–Fuller tests to detect bubble periods. Empirical results indicate that there are three positive bubbles in 2007, 2013, and 2015, indicating that the film market continues to expand after temporary frustrations. Meanwhile, one negative bubble is found in 2019, which demonstrates that the bubble’s negative impacts persist and the film industry is still having problems such as declining industrial output. Economic growth, film quality, and industrial policies are common factors for all bubbles. The global financial crisis, capital in- and outflows, internet giants’ entry and sky-high remuneration are reasons for certain bubble behaviors. Hence, market practitioners should actively recognize bubbles and observe their evolution, which will favor industrial stabilization. A perfect legal system, moderate industrial policies, a competitive market environment, and other measures are needed to confront the opportunities and challenges.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Наталия Александровна Иванова

Актуальность исследования для экономики усиливается такими явлениями, как влияние мирового финансового кризиса, усложнение отраслевой и территориальной структуры производства, усиление интеграции всех сфер общественной жизни, возрастание значения экологических, социальных и политических факторов развития общества, повышение трансакционных издержек принятия решений в сфере управления. Изучение литературы о территориях дает основание определить понятие региональной системы России как элемент, подсистему некоторой иерархической системы, в роли которой выступает национальная экономика. Процессы глобализации коренным образом изменяют роль регионов в национальной экономике. Регион постепенно становится не только отдельным экономическим агентом, но также вступает в мировые конкурентные процессы. Положение территориально-организованных систем оказывается зависимым не только от макроэкономических условий или возможностей самих регионов, но также от расстановки конкурентных сил, механизмов взаимодействия регионов с другими субъектами. В этой связи возникает необходимость системных исследований с целью выработки комплекса мер, которые будут способствовать повышению конкурентоспособности экономики в целом, ее регионов в частности. Существующий инструментарий региональной экономики является уже недостаточным для анализа такого рода проблем, а традиционный конкурентный анализ не рассматривает регионы в качестве субъектов конкуренции. Требуется расширение и применение новых теоретических подходов к анализу региональных экономических систем и эффективности их развития, формированию целостной концепции развития территориальной организации хозяйства, что обусловило актуальность данного исследования. The relevance of the study for the economy is enhanced by such phenomena as the impact of the global financial crisis, the complication of the sectoral and territorial structure of production, the strengthening of integration of all spheres of public life, the increasing importance of environmental, social and political factors in the development of society, the increase in transaction costs of decision-making in the field of management. The study of the literature on territories gives grounds to define the concept of the regional system of Russia as an element, a subsystem of some hierarchical system, in the role of which the national economy acts. The processes of globalization are fundamentally changing the role of regions in the national economy. The region is gradually becoming not only a separate economic agent, but also enters into global competitive processes. The position of geographically organized systems turns out to depend not only on the macroeconomic conditions or the capabilities of the regions themselves, but also on the alignment of competitive forces, the mechanisms of interaction of regions with other entities. In this regard, there is a need for systematic research in order to develop a set of measures that will contribute to improving the competitiveness of the economy as a whole, its regions in particular. The existing tools of the regional economy are no longer sufficient to analyze such problems, and traditional competitive analysis does not consider regions as subjects of competition. It requires the expansion and application of new theoretical approaches to the analysis of regional economic systems and the effectiveness of their development, the formation of an integral concept of the development of the territorial organization of the economy, which determined the relevance of this study.


2010 ◽  
Vol 230 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Eickmeier

SummaryThe paper assesses the transmission of US supply, demand and monetary policy shocks between 1976 and 2008 based on a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) which is applied to a newly constructed set of more than 200 German time series. The study not only assesses the transmission of US shocks to German GDP via impulse response analysis but also to a large number of variables capturing the various transmission channels. The inclusion not only of aggregate trade variables but also of variables covering trade with different partner countries/regions helps analyzing more deeply the trade channel, e. g. the role of direct trade versus trade with third countries. Another focus lies on the transmission of US shocks to specific industries such as the car and the machinery industries which were particularly severely affected by the global financial crisis. Finally, the role of US shocks for the most recent downturn in Germany is assessed based on a historical decomposition.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Taslima Akther ◽  
Fengju Xu

Purpose This study aims to investigate the factors that enhance the credibility of and confidence in audit value. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected from 254 institutional investors through a questionnaire survey and were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM). Findings The findings reveal that the two influential predictors of enhanced credibility and confidence are perceived auditor independence and improved auditor communication. Factors related to auditor–client affiliation, such as restrictions on providing non-audit services, mandatory auditor rotation and the presence of effective audit committees, are identified as creating the perceived independence. Improved auditor communication is linked with improving the audit report and ensuring audit education, thus creating more sophisticated users who better understand the scope and purpose of an audit. Furthermore, independent audit oversight acts as a moderator in the relationship between perceived auditor independence, improved auditor communication and enhanced credibility. Enhanced credibility can lead to greater confidence in audit value. Originality/value In the wake of the global financial crisis and loss of confidence in the role of auditors, this study investigates the factors that can enhance the credibility of and confidence in audit value, especially in a non-Anglo-American setting. This study is unique in terms of methodological development, as it uses a higher-order Type II reflective–formative model using PLS-SEM.


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