scholarly journals Presidential Campaign 2020 in the United States: Factors of Growing Uncertainty

Author(s):  
Natalia TRAVKINA

The article analyzes the prospects for the 2020 presidential campaign after primary elections, which ended with the victory of incumbent President D. Trump in the Republican Party and former Vice-President J. Biden in the Democratic Party. A powerful external factor influencing the usual course of the presidential race has been the COVID-19 pandemic that hit the United States, which is the main element of the growing uncertainty about the possible outcome of the presidential election. An important consequence of the coronavirus pandemic was the gradual slide of the American economy into crisis as early as in the first quarter of this year. Economic turmoil in a year of presidential elections has been one of the most reliable indicators for upcoming change in the White House at least since 1920.

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-121
Author(s):  
Seth Barrett Tillman

Abstract Qualifications for public office restrict democratic choice, but such restrictions have a long pedigree in many jurisdictions. For example, the U.S. Constitution sets out qualifications for elected federal officials: i.e., Representative, Senator, President, and Vice President. Qualifications for those positions include provisions relating to age, citizenship, and residence. It has been long debated whether these textual qualifications are exclusive (i.e., floors and ceilings) or whether they are merely floors, which can be supplemented by additional qualifications imposed by Congress or by the States. Once again, this issue has become topical. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is a prominent candidate in now-ongoing Democratic Party primary elections. These primaries select delegates to a national convention which will choose the Democratic Party’s candidate for the 2016 popular presidential election. It has been alleged that, during her term as Secretary of State, Clinton violated a provision of the federal statute mandating government record keeping. 18 U.S.C. § 2071 provides: “Whoever, having the custody of any … record … willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same … shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States.” This Article addresses two interesting interpretive challenges posed by Section 2071. First, does Section 2071’s “office under the United States” language reach the presidency? Second, if Section 2071’s “office under the United States” language encompasses the presidency, is the statute constitutional? In other words, does Congress have the power to create additional qualifications for the presidency?


2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-49
Author(s):  
Phyllis Bennis

This essay examines the discourse on Palestine/Israel in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, charting the impact of the Palestine rights movement on the domestic U.S. policy debate. Policy analyst, author, and long-time activist Phyllis Bennis notes the sea change within the Democratic Party evident in the unprecedented debate on the issue outside traditionally liberal Zionist boundaries. The final Democratic platform was as pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian as any in history, but the process of getting there was revolutionary in no small part, Bennis argues, due to the grassroots campaign of veteran U.S. senator Bernie Sanders. Bennis also discusses the Republican platform on Israel/Palestine, outlining the positions of the final three Republican contenders. Although she is clear about the current weakness of the broad antiwar movement in the United States, Bennis celebrates its Palestinian rights component and its focus on education and BDS to challenge the general public's “ignorance” on Israel/Palestine.


Author(s):  
John Kenneth Galbraith

This chapter focuses on the politics of contentment. In the past, the contented and the self-approving were a small minority in any national entity, with the majority of the citizenry being relegated outside. In the United States, the favored are now numerous, greatly influential of voice and a majority of those who vote. This, and not the division of voters as between political parties, is what defines modern American political behavior and shapes modern politics. The chapter first considers the commitment of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party to the policies of contentment before discussing the effects of money and media on the politics of contentment. It also examines American electoral politics, social exclusion, and international relations in the context of the politics of contentment. Finally, it tackles the question of whether, and to what extent, the politics of contentment in the United States extends to other industrial countries.


Author(s):  
Marisa Abrajano ◽  
Zoltan L. Hajnal

This conclusion summarizes the book's main findings and considers their implications for the areas of race, immigration, and American politics. The results confirm the important role that immigration plays in American politics and also highlight the enduring though shifting role of race in the nation. Where African Americans once dominated the political calculus of white Americans, Latinos appear more likely to do so today. The movement of so many white Americans to the right has wide-ranging ramifications for both the future balance of partisanship and likely trajectory of race relations in the country. With a clear majority of the white population now leaning towards the Republican Party and a clear majority of the minority population now favoring the Democratic Party, political conflict in the United States is increasingly likely to be synonymous with racial conflict—a pattern that threatens ever-greater racial tension.


1988 ◽  
Vol 82 (4) ◽  
pp. 1153-1181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Courtney Brown

This analysis investigates the mass dynamics of competitive electoral politics with respect to the presidential vote during the 1928–36 realigning period for the United States. A formal system of three interdependent differential equations is employed to characterize the dynamic processes of the aggregate voter shifts between the Republican, Democratic, and nonvoter populations. The modeling strategy is used to locate substantial variations in the mass dynamics between large subgroups in the electorate as well as to identify both national and socially interactive components to the patterns of voter movements. The results show that the overall realignment period was quite complex. Vote switching from the Republican party to the Democratic party was the dominant characteristic of the 1932 election, whereas additional Democratic gains in 1936 came mostly from new voters.


Author(s):  
Juhem Navarro-Rivera ◽  
Yazmín García Trejo

This chapter introduces readers to a relatively unknown aspect of American secularism: its growing racial diversity. It discusses the importance of racial and ethnic minorities in the growth in the number of people with no religious affiliation (nones) in the United States since 1990. Furthermore, it argues and demonstrates that this growing racial diversity is a major source of the exodus of secular Americans away from the Republican Party and, to a lesser extent, toward the Democratic Party. The chapter concludes with the implications of this diversity and political affiliations for the future cohesion of the secular community in the United States and how it will be able to leverage these to gain political power in the future.


Author(s):  
Marisa Abrajano ◽  
Zoltan L. Hajnal

This chapter examines whether the effects of immigration extend to the electoral arena. On average, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party present Americans with two different alternatives on immigration. Most of those calling for more punitive measures come from candidates on the Republican side. By contrast, most of the individuals offering a more compassionate perspective toward immigration emerge out of the Democratic camp. There are obvious partisan choices for voters with real hopes or deep fears on immigration. The chapter asks whether concerns about immigration are leading to greater support for Republican candidates across a range of elections from the presidency to gubernatorial contests. It shows that there is a strong, robust relationship between immigration attitudes and white Americans' vote choice. In other words, immigration exerts a broad influence on electoral politics in the United States.


Author(s):  
Lawrence S. Kaplan

Bursting into fame toward the end of the Great Depression, Harold Stassen—elected governor of Minnesota at age thirty-one in 1938--excited a new generation of Republicans who enthusiastically supported his run for the presidency. After failing to win the nomination in 1948—a goal he believed his early successes merited—he repeatedly chased the nomination over the next generation. He became a figure of mockery as a perennial also-ran on the margins of the history of the twentieth century. He sought the Republican nomination for president of the United States twelve times between 1944 and 1992. Given his youth and enthusiasm, it was not surprising that he attracted supporters who were college age and younger. He broke with Republican Party leadership to engage in grassroots campaigning, bringing a corps of youthful admirers into his fold. He was a vigorous and articulate spokesman for a new generation ready to take over a demoralized party in the wake of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s election to an unprecedented third term in the White House.


2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Miller ◽  
Norman Schofield

Because the space of policies is two-dimensional, parties in the United States are coalitions of opposed interests. The Republican Party contains both socially conservative and socially liberal groups, though both tend to be pro-business. The increasing dominance of the social conservatives has angered some prominent Republicans, even causing a number of them to change party allegiance. Over time, the decreasing significance of the economic axis may cause the Republican Party to adopt policies that are analogous to those proposed by William Jennings Bryan in 1896: populist and anti-business. In parallel, the Democratic Party will increasingly appeal to pro-business, social liberals, so the party takes on the mantel of Lincoln.


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