Baseball Home Field Advantage Without Fans in the Stands

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Losak ◽  
Joseph Sabel
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Significant Evidence ◽  
Home Team ◽  
Home Field Advantage ◽  
Major League ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Home Conditions

Home field advantage is universally accepted across most major sports and levels of competition. However, exact causes of home field advantage have been difficult to disentangle. The COVID-19 pandemic offers a unique, natural experiment to isolate elements related to home field advantage since all 2020 regular season Major League Baseball games were played without fans. Results provide no statistically significant evidence of a difference in home field advantage between the 2019 and 2020 seasons, evidence that home crowd support is not a driver of home field advantage. There does appear to be a statistical advantage by the home team batting second in the inning. Travel fatigue seems to have no impact on home field advantage, and while home field advantage seems to increase throughout the 2020 season, we chalk that up to small sample noise. Despite lacking historical precedence, betting markets seemingly respond efficiently to the new home conditions. Keywords: home field advantage, market efficiency, baseball, ghost games

The Impact of Cloud Cover on Major League Baseball

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wes P. Kent ◽  
Scott C. Sheridan
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Home Team ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Home Field Advantage ◽  
Major League ◽  
Sky Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Although it is often suggested that direct sunlight may affect a player’s vision, no published studies have analyzed this interaction. In this research, a variety of statistical tests were utilized to study how baseball variables respond to different cloud cover conditions. Data from more than 35 000 Major League Baseball games, spanning the seasons from 1987 through 2002, were studied. Eleven baseball variables covering batting, pitching, and fielding performance were included. Overall responses were analyzed, as well as individual responses at 21 different stadiums. Home and away team performances were evaluated separately. This study then synthesized the synergistic differences in offensive production, pitching performance, and fielding performance into changes in the “home field advantage.” Offensive production generally declines during clearer-sky daytime games compared to cloudy-sky daytime games, while pitching performance increases as conditions become clearer. Strikeouts show the strongest response in the study, increasing from 5.95 per game during cloudy-sky conditions to 6.40 per game during clear-sky conditions. The number of errors per game increases during clear-sky daytime games compared to cloudy-sky daytime games, while fly outs increase and ground outs decrease between daytime and nighttime games, regardless of the amount of cloud cover. Results at individual stadiums vary, with some stadiums displaying a very strong association between baseball performance and changes in cloud cover, while others display a weak association. All of these impacts affect the home field advantage, with the home team winning 56% of the games played under clear skies compared to 52.3% of the games played under cloudy skies.

Measuring Circadian Advantage in Major League Baseball: A 10-Year Retrospective Study

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 394-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Christopher Winter ◽  
William R. Hammond ◽  
Noah H. Green ◽  
Zhiyong Zhang ◽  
Donald L. Bliwise
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Athletic Performance ◽  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Time Zone ◽  
Winning Percentage ◽  
Circadian Time ◽  
Game Outcome ◽  
Time Zones ◽  
Home Field Advantage ◽  
Major League

Purpose:The effect of travel on athletic performance has been investigated in previous studies. The purpose of this study was to investigate this effect on game outcome over 10 Major League Baseball (MLB) seasons.Methods:Using the convention that for every time zone crossed, synchronization requires 1 d, teams were assigned a daily number indicating the number of days away from circadian resynchronization. With these values, wins and losses for all games could be analyzed based on circadian values.Results:19,079 of the 24,121 games (79.1%) were played between teams at an equal circadian time. The remaining 5,042 games consisted of teams playing at different circadian times. The team with the circadian advantage won 2,620 games (52.0%, P = .005), a winning percentage that exceeded chance but was a smaller effect than home field advantage (53.7%, P < .0001). When teams held a 1-h circadian advantage, winning percentage was 51.7% (1,903–1,781). Winning percentage with a 2-h advantage was 51.8% (620–578) but increased to 60.6% (97–63) with a 3-h advantage (3-h advantage > 2-hadvantage = 1-h advantage, P = .036). Direction of advantage showed teams traveling from Western time zones to Eastern time zones were more likely to win (winning percentage = .530) than teams traveling from Eastern time zones to Western time zones (winning percentage = .509) with a winning odds 1.14 (P = .027).Conclusion:These results suggest that in the same way home field advantage influences likelihood of success, so too does the magnitude and direction of circadian advantage. Teams with greater circadian advantage were more likely to win.

Impacts of Performance-Enhancing Drug Suspensions on the Demand for Major League Baseball

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-419
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Cisyk
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Reaction ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Major League ◽  
Performance Enhancing Drugs ◽  
Television Audience ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Audience Size ◽  
Performance Enhancing

In 2005, Major League Baseball (MLB) introduced a new policy regarding the use of performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) wherein the league would not only suspend but also publicly name any player who tested positive for banned PEDs. Using the estimated television audience size of MLB games from 2006 to 2012, these PED suspension announcements provide a unique natural experiment to test how consumers react to news of PED use. This study finds that PED announcements have two major impacts on the demand for baseball. First, there is on average an immediate 9.3% reduction in the television audience of the PED player’s team. Second, the magnitude of the effect gradually decreases over time yet remains negative and significant for a period of 37 days or approximately 33 game-broadcasts. This is the first study to link PED use to an adverse reaction by consumers in a systematic way using television audience while controlling for the change in team quality caused by removing the suspended player from the team.

scholarly journals Incidence and Return to Play after Biceps Tenodesis in Major League Baseball Players

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3_suppl3) ◽  
pp. 2325967117S0011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Nissen Chalmers ◽  
Brandon J. Erickson ◽  
Nikhil N. Verma ◽  
Anthony A. Romeo
Keyword(s):  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Shoulder Surgery ◽  
Return To Play ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Labral Repair ◽  
Professional Baseball ◽  
Biceps Tenodesis ◽  
Baseball Players ◽  
Major League

Objectives: Superior labral anterior-posterior (SLAP) tears are a common source of inability to play among baseball players of all levels. SLAP repair is unpredictable and thus biceps tenodesis (BT) has been proposed as an alternative. Furthermore, tenodesis may be indicated for pain isolated to the biceps tendon. The incidence of BT among professional baseball players is unknown, as are the rates of return to play (RTP). The purpose of this study was to determine RTP rates after BT among professional baseball players. Methods: Major League Baseball (MLB) has maintained a prospective database containing all major and minor league baseball players who have undergone shoulder surgery since 2010. Using this database we determined the incidence, demographics, position, prior surgical history, concomitant procedures, RTP rates, time to RTP, and performance upon RTP for professional baseball players following BT. Minimum follow-up was 2 years. Results: Between 2010 and 2013, 17 professional baseball players underwent BT, of which 71% were pitchers, and 29% were in the major league. Forty-seven percent had a history of prior shoulder surgery and 47% underwent concomitant labral repair. Overall RTP after BT was 35%. RTP for isolated BT was 44% in 0.8±0.5 years while RTP for those who underwent both BT and labral repair was 25% (p=0.620). All players who RTP were able to return to at least ten games at their pre-operative level of play. Return to professional play was significantly more common among position players than pitchers (80% vs. 17%, p=0.028). RTP was less common among players with prior shoulder surgery, but this was not statistically significant (56% vs. 13%, p=0.131). For those players who did RTP, pre-operative and post-operative performance was unchanged. Conclusion: Professional baseball players who undergo biceps tenodesis have a 35% rate of return to their prior level of play. While pitchers have only a 16% rate of return to play, position players have an 80% rate of return to play. Furthermore, 100% of those who returned to baseball played at least 10 games at their pre-operative level with no significant change in performance statistics. Professional baseball players who choose to undergo biceps tenodesis should be counseled regarding the low rates or return to play. Pitchers in particular may have a poor prognosis following tenodesis. However, given the small sample size and concomitant procedures, further study is needed before definitive conclusions can be made.

Explaining Game-to-Game Ticket Sales for Major League Baseball Games Over Time

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 536-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elise M. Beckman ◽  
Wenqiang Cai ◽  
Rebecca M. Esrock ◽  
Robert J. Lemke
Keyword(s):  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Ticket Sales ◽  
Home Team ◽  
Major League ◽  
Potential Factors ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Uncertainty Of Outcome ◽  
Over Time

Using data from more than 10,000 games from 1985 through 2009, the authors estimate the effect various factors have on attendance at Major League Baseball (MLB) games. As previously found in the literature, interleague and interleague rivalry contests are associated with higher attendances, but this relationship has been weakening over time. Contrary to some of the literature, the authors find that the likelihood the home team will win the contest is inconsistently estimated over time, lending little support for the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. Generally the effect on ticket sales from many potential factors has generally been weakening over time.

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