scholarly journals MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SYSTEM-DYNAMIC APPROACH

Author(s):  
Tetiana Bitkova ◽  
Yuliia Humirova
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Ivona Milić Beran ◽  

This paper presents a qualitative and quantitative system-dynamic modeling of the impact of social capital on economic growth. Social capital is the most problematic of all the concepts that determine progress. On a broad conceptual level, there is agreement about the importance of social capital, which has been used to explain differences in progress among nations with similar natural, human and physical capital. Recent research suggests that it is more important to include an explanation of the interaction of economic actors and their organization when measuring progress than to measure progress without the influence of social capital. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system-dynamic model of the impact of social capital on economic growth that will enable better understanding and management of social capital. In order to build a system dynamics model, the paper will: provide an analysis and overview of social capital and system dynamics; develop a system dynamics structural and mental-verbal model of the impact of social capital on economic growth; and develop a mathematical model of economic growth. This will provide a practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e., analyzing economic growth and observing the mutual correlation between individual parameters. Keywords: social capital, economic growth, system dynamics, structural model


2022 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 44-50
Author(s):  
Valeriy Kozytskyy ◽  
Nelya Pabyrivska ◽  
Galyna Beregova

The economies of almost every country in the whole word have been suffered from coronavirus pandemic consequences. The damage was especially hard for labor markets. The large magnitude of demand and production shocks that was caused by COVID-19 significantly disturbed the dynamics of output, wages and prices. The research problem addressed in this paper focuses on dynamic properties of wages and prices behavior influenced by shocks with different magnitudes and types. We apply a system dynamic approach to conduct the simulations of economic variables and investigate the possibility of their convergence to some stable path. We examine the impact of demand and production shocks on the output and prices as well as on wage and inflation behavior. It is proved that values of models parameters are crucial for existing of new steady state and convergence of economic variables. The paper determines the bifurcation points that separate different modes of transition period in moving towards or away from equilibrium. The research includes the investigation of the impact of economy’s original state and emphasizes the importance of initial point of the system for the next its dynamics after shock. The research results derived in the paper serves as a useful learning tool to develop a discussion of the policy design issues related to reduction of negative impact of severe and unanticipated disturbance like COVID-19.


2017 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ivanova ◽  
A. Balaev ◽  
E. Gurvich

The paper considers the impact of the increase in retirement age on labor supply and economic growth. Combining own estimates of labor participation and demographic projections by the Rosstat, the authors predict marked fall in the labor force (by 5.6 million persons over 2016-2030). Labor demand is also going down but to a lesser degree. If vigorous measures are not implemented, the labor force shortage will reach 6% of the labor force by the period end, thus restraining economic growth. Even rapid and ambitious increase in the retirement age (by 1 year each year to 65 years for both men and women) can only partially mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic trends.


Author(s):  
Oleksandr Synenko ◽  
Kateryna Yarema ◽  
Yuliia Bezsmertna

The subject of the research is the approach to the possibility of using the Solow model to perform the regression analysis on the example of the Ukrainian economy model. The purpose of writing this article is to investigate the notion of regres- sion analysis, Solow’s economy model, algorithm for performing regression analy- sis on the example of Ukraine’s economy model. This model can be adapted for the economy of enterprises. Methodology. The research methodology is system-struc- tural and comparative analyzes (to study the structure of GDP); monograph (when studying methods of regression analysis on the example of the Ukrainian economy); economic analysis (when assessing the impact of factors on Ukraine’s GDP). The scientific novelty consists the features of the use of the Solow model on the ex- ample of Ukrainian economy are determined. An algorithm for calculating the basic parameters of a model using the Excel application package is disclosed. The main recommendations on the development of the national economy and economic growth through the use of macroeconomic instruments are given. Conclusions. The use of the Solow model enables forecasting and analysis. The results obtained re- vealed the problem of low resource return of capital as a resource, along with the means of macroeconomic regulation of the investment process, using which can improve the situation. A special place in these funds belongs to the accelerated depreciation and interest rate policies.


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