scholarly journals Financial frictions and durable goods in DSGE models with sticky prices

Author(s):  
Ugochi Emenogu

The focus of this dissertation is to study the role of financial frictions in DSGE models with durable goods and sticky prices, and how key economic variables respond in such an environment to monetary policy shocks. The first chapter studies the empirical evidence regarding the response of durable and non-durable goods to monetary policy shocks. Using quarterly data from Canada and the United States, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we trace out empirically the effects of monetary policy innovations on key macroeconomic variables. We find that in response to an increase in the interest rate, durable consumption, non-durable consumption, output, and household debt decrease, and the nominal interest rate rises. In the second chapter, we show that in the presence of agency costs and equity based borrowing, the two sector sticky price model with collateral frictions resolve the co-movement problem in a way which is consistent with the empirical evidence, even when durable prices are nearly exible. In the third chapter, we examine the effect of financial frictions on the consumption of durables and non-durables in a two-sector DSGE model with sticky prices and heterogeneous agents. The financial frictions are a combination of loan-to-value (LTV) and payment-to-income (PTI) constraints faced by borrowers. In this setting a monetary contraction reduces the maximum amount that consumer that consumers can borrow in order to purchase durable goods. As a result, the model predicts that the consumption of durables falls, along with non-durables even when durable prices are fully flexible. Thus, the model matches better the predictions of the model with the data, relative to the existing literature. The fourth chapter of the dissertation studies the effectiveness of macro-prudential policy measures in curbing house price inflation amid rising outward foreign direct investment from abroad. To assess the usefulness of these macro-prudential policy tools, we use database of housing prices, GDP, bank crises, policy rates, Chinese outward investment and macro-prudential policy measures covering advanced countries at quarterly frequency from 2003 to 2016. The results suggest that Macro prudential policy measures help in reducing house prices and OFDI has a significant and positive correlation with house prices movements.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ugochi Emenogu

The focus of this dissertation is to study the role of financial frictions in DSGE models with durable goods and sticky prices, and how key economic variables respond in such an environment to monetary policy shocks. The first chapter studies the empirical evidence regarding the response of durable and non-durable goods to monetary policy shocks. Using quarterly data from Canada and the United States, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we trace out empirically the effects of monetary policy innovations on key macroeconomic variables. We find that in response to an increase in the interest rate, durable consumption, non-durable consumption, output, and household debt decrease, and the nominal interest rate rises. In the second chapter, we show that in the presence of agency costs and equity based borrowing, the two sector sticky price model with collateral frictions resolve the co-movement problem in a way which is consistent with the empirical evidence, even when durable prices are nearly exible. In the third chapter, we examine the effect of financial frictions on the consumption of durables and non-durables in a two-sector DSGE model with sticky prices and heterogeneous agents. The financial frictions are a combination of loan-to-value (LTV) and payment-to-income (PTI) constraints faced by borrowers. In this setting a monetary contraction reduces the maximum amount that consumer that consumers can borrow in order to purchase durable goods. As a result, the model predicts that the consumption of durables falls, along with non-durables even when durable prices are fully flexible. Thus, the model matches better the predictions of the model with the data, relative to the existing literature. The fourth chapter of the dissertation studies the effectiveness of macro-prudential policy measures in curbing house price inflation amid rising outward foreign direct investment from abroad. To assess the usefulness of these macro-prudential policy tools, we use database of housing prices, GDP, bank crises, policy rates, Chinese outward investment and macro-prudential policy measures covering advanced countries at quarterly frequency from 2003 to 2016. The results suggest that Macro prudential policy measures help in reducing house prices and OFDI has a significant and positive correlation with house prices movements.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weina Cai ◽  
Sen Wang

The boom of housing market in China in recent years has attracted great concerns from all over the world. How monetary policy affects house prices in China becomes an essential topic. This paper studies the time-varying effects of monetary policy on house prices in China during 2005.7-2017.10, by using a time-varying parameter VAR model. This paper obtains three interesting results. First, there are time-varying features of the responses of house prices to monetary policy shocks half-year and 1-year ahead, no matter through interest rate channel or through credit channel. Second, interest rate channel and credit channel have been enhanced since financial crisis in 2008. Third, the responses of nominal house prices to monetary policy in China are mainly driven by the responses of real house prices, instead of inflation. Finally, this paper gives proper suggestions for each finding respectively to central bank in China.


2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 830-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Eickmeier ◽  
Boris Hofmann

This paper applies a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model to U.S. data with the aim of analyzing monetary transmission via private sector balance sheets, credit risk spreads, and house prices and of exploring the role of monetary policy in the housing and credit boom prior to the global financial crisis. We find that monetary policy shocks have a persistent effect on house prices, real estate wealth, and private sector debt and a strong short-lived effect on risk spreads in money and mortgage markets. Moreover, the results suggest that monetary policy contributed considerably to the unsustainable precrisis developments in housing and credit markets. Although monetary policy shocks contributed discernibly at a late stage of the boom, feedback effects of other (macroeconomic and financial) shocks via lower policy rates kicked in earlier and appear to have been considerable.


2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (4) ◽  
pp. 690-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Paul

This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I find that compared to the response of output, the reaction of stock and house prices to monetary policy shocks was particularly low before the 2007–2009 financial crisis.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Costello ◽  
Patricia Fraser ◽  
Garry MacDonald

Purpose – This paper aims to analyze the impact of common monetary policy shocks on house prices at national and capital city levels of aggregation, using Australian data and the Lastrapes (2005) two-part structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) empirical method. Design/methodology/approach – The Lastrapes (2005) two-part SVAR empirical method is applied to Australian housing market and macroeconomic data to assess the impact of common monetary policy shocks on house prices. Findings – Results show that while the impact of shocks to interest rates on aggregate house prices is almost neutral, the responses of state capital city house prices to the same shock can exhibit significant asymmetries. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the monetary policy–asset price debate by examining the influence of Australian monetary policy on capital city housing markets over the period 1982-2012. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study that has adapted this Lastrapes (2005) methodology to the analysis of housing markets.


2003 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Bils ◽  
Peter J. Klenow ◽  
Oleksiy Kryvtsov

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiu-Sheng Chen ◽  
Tzu-Yu Lin

Abstract This paper revisits the link between house prices and monetary policy using a data set on house prices provided by the Bank for International Settlements. It is found that a loose monetary policy unambiguously results in a rise in real house prices, and such an increase is statistically significant for 19 of the 20 countries studied here. Empirical results also show that for some countries (Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, and South Africa), the interest rate shock can explain a large percentage of real house price movements. The response of house prices to monetary policy shocks varies between countries, and the strength of the relationship between house prices and monetary policy can be associated with financial liberalization. On the other hand, evidence shows that interest rate shock plays an important role in explaining recent house price hikes for Australia, Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, the US, and South Africa. In particular, during 2002–2006, on average 24% of the house price hikes in the US can be attributed to monetary policy shocks. Finally, we also find evidence that central banks react to the housing market, particularly in those countries adopting a policy of inflation targeting.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document