DEVELOPMENT OF AN EMPIRICAL MODEL OF pH LONG-TERM CHANGES IN THE SURFACE WATERS OF THE DEEP-WATER PART OF THE BLACK SEA
The paper analyzes the interannual variability of the pH value in the surface layer of the deep-water part of the Black Sea for the period from 1957 to 1996. For the period from 1977 to 1996, an empirical mod-el of the time series is developed and a retrospective forecast is calculated with an assessment of its quali-ty using data from field studies performed from 2019 to 2021. In the interannual course of pH, two sig-nificant quasi-cyclic components of variability with periods of about 6, 7 years and 2.5 years are distin-guished. The highlighted trend (climate trend) indicates a decrease in the pH value for the period from 1977 to 2021. with an average rate of about 0.01 pH units/10 years. The data of field studies in 2019-2021 confirm the calculations obtained.