Secular non-linear trends and multi-timescale oscillations of regional surface air temperature in eastern China

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Wu ◽  
W Qian
2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 4693-4703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Zhao ◽  
Phil Jones ◽  
Lijuan Cao ◽  
Zhongwei Yan ◽  
Shuyao Zha ◽  
...  

Abstract Using the reconstructed continuous and homogenized surface air temperature (SAT) series for 16 cities across eastern China (where the greatest industrial developments in China have taken place) back to the nineteenth century, the authors examine linear trends of SAT. The regional-mean SAT over eastern China shows a warming trend of 1.52°C (100 yr)−1 during 1909–2010. It mainly occurred in the past 4 decades and this agrees well with the variability in another SAT series developed from a much denser station network (over 400 sites) across this part of China since 1951. This study collects population data for 245 sites (from these 400+ locations) and split these into five equally sized groups based on population size. Comparison of these five groups across different durations from 30 to 60 yr in length indicates that differences in population only account for between 9% and 24% of the warming since 1951. To show that a larger urbanization impact is very unlikely, the study additionally determines how much can be explained by some large-scale climate indices. Anomalies of large-scale climate indices such as the tropical Indian Ocean SST and the Siberian atmospheric circulation systems account for at least 80% of the total warming trends.


2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 5843-5858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Rucong Yu

Abstract This paper examines variations of the surface air temperature (SAT) over China and the globe in the twentieth century simulated by 19 coupled climate models driven by historical natural and anthropogenic forcings. Most models perform well in simulating both the global and the Northern Hemispheric mean SAT evolutions of the twentieth century. The inclusion of natural forcings improves the simulation, in particular for the first half of the century. The reproducibility of the SAT averaged over China is lower than that of the global and hemispheric averages, but it is still acceptable. The contribution of natural forcings to the SAT over China in the first half of the century is not as robust as that to the global and hemispheric averages. No model could successfully produce the reconstructed warming over China in the 1920s. The prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings in the coupled climate models mainly produce the warming trends and the decadal- to interdecadal-scale SAT variations with poor performances at shorter time scales. The prominent warming trend in the last half of the century over China and its acceleration in recent decades are weakly simulated. There are discrepancies between the simulated and observed regional features of the SAT trend over China. Few models could produce the summertime cooling over the middle part of eastern China (27°–36°N), while two models acceptably produce the meridional gradients of the wintertime warming trends, with north China experiencing larger warming. Limitations of the current state-of-the-art coupled climate models in simulating spatial patterns of the twentieth-century SAT over China cast a shadow upon their capability toward projecting credible geographical distributions of future climate change through Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario simulations.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siqi Zhang ◽  
Guoyu Ren ◽  
Yuyu Ren ◽  
Yingxian Zhang ◽  
Xiaoying Xue

Abstract The goal of this study is to compare the differences in surface air temperature (SAT) between observational and reanalysis data in mainland China from 1961–2015 for evaluating the reliability and applicability of the reanalysis datasets, based on an observational dataset of 763 stations which has been adjusted for urbanization bias, and 8 reanalysis datasets. The time series, anomaly correlations, standard deviations, climate state, and linear trends of the reanalysis data are evaluated against the observations. The reanalysis data are consistent with the observational climate characteristics to a large extent. The correlation and standard deviation ratio between the reanalysis data and observations exhibited highly consistent inter–annual variability and dispersion, with the inter–annual SAT variability of JRA55 and ERA5 the closest to the observations for the periods 1961–2015 and 1979–2015, and the dispersions of 20CRV3 and NCEPV1 the most consistent with the observations for the two periods. The annual mean SAT of the reanalyses is generally 0–2.0°C lower than the observations, while the linear trends of all datasets exhibited clear warming. The biases in the SAT climatology of 20CRV3 and CRA40 are lower than other reanalysis datasets, and the linear trends of NCEPV1 and 20CRV3 are closer to the observations. With increasing elevation, the biases of the reanalysis data in terms of correlation, standard deviation, climate state, and linear trend all increased. Overall, in terms of the similarity of multiple measures to the urbanization bias–adjusted observations, CRA40 and JRA55 show the best performance of the products in reproducing various aspects of climatological and climate change features in mainland China for the period 1979–2015 and 1961–2015 respectively.


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 3251-3276 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Zheng ◽  
B. Wu ◽  
J. He ◽  
Y. Yu

Abstract. Ten Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating the third phase of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison project (PMIP3) are assessed for the simulations of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) at both the present climate and mid-Holocene. Results show that the PMIP3 model median well captures the characteristics of the EASM, including the two distinct features of the Meiyu Front and the stepwise meridional displacement of the monsoon rainbelt. At mid-Holocene, the enhanced EASM is simulated by the PMIP3 models. The model median shows that the changes of surface air temperature and precipitation are within the range as indicated by the proxy data over the eastern China. Both the changes of monsoonal circulation and the water vapor content favor the increasing of summer precipitation. Regional features can be identified between models because of their different simulations of the above changes. The model spread for the surface air temperature (TAS) is relatively smaller when compared with that of PMIP2 models in both the Northern Hemisphere and the eastern China. However, the model spread of summer precipitation is larger among PMIP3 models, particularly in the lower reaches of Yangzi River. The TAS over Tibetan Plateau has a positive relationship with the precipitation in the lower reaches of Yangzi River, yet this relationship does not apply for those PMIP3 models in which the monsoonal precipitation is more sensitive to the changes of large-scale circulation.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document