Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: the present and the doubled CO2 climate scenarios

Effective adaptation of viticulture to climate change requires impact and response scenarios. Although climate and production impact scenarios are based on the evaluation of a spatially heterogeneous system, conventional response scenarios do not take into account the variation of the producers-climate interactions. These interactions are often extremely heterogeneous and unevenly distributed in space, leading to errors in the needs and adaptation plans, especially in large areas. Here we develop a novel framework for adaptation that considers the heterogeneity of the responses given by producers to climate, and applies the concept to adaptation of viticulture to climate change in the Mediterranean region. We use future climate scenarios at 0.5 ∘ resolution to estimate the adaptation of viticulture by the end of the 21st century. Results suggest that most of the Mediterranean region may urgently need adaptation plans, leading to potential opportunities. By incorporating spatially explicit information on the diversity of viticulture systems, management practices, and climate vulnerability, this approach may contribute to adaptation policy.

Download Full-text

Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

Advances in Geosciences ◽

10.5194/adgeo-12-153-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

pp. 153-158 ◽

Cited By ~ 69

Author(s):

P. Lionello ◽

F. Giorgi

Keyword(s):

Mediterranean Region ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Mediterranean Coast ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Northern Coast ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Cyclone Activity ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

The Mediterranean

Abstract. Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

Download Full-text

Modeling the response of soil moisture to climate variability in the Mediterranean region

10.5194/hess-2020-302 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Louise Mimeau ◽

Yves Tramblay ◽

Luca Brocca ◽

Christian Massari ◽

Stefania Camici ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Precipitation Intensity ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Moisture Condition ◽

Soil Moisture Condition ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean region indicate a possible decrease in annual precipitation associated with an intensification of extreme rainfall events in the coming years. A major challenge in this region is to evaluate the impacts of changing precipitation patterns on extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. For this, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on soil moisture since it is a proxy for agricultural droughts and the antecedent soil moisture condition plays a key role on runoff generation. This study focuses on 10 sites, located in Southern France, with available soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation observations on a 10 year time period. Soil moisture is simulated at each site at the hourly time step using a model of soil water content. The sensitivity of the simulated soil moisture to different changes in precipitation and temperature is evaluated by simulating the soil moisture response to temperature and precipitation scenarios generated using a delta change method for temperature and a stochastic model (Neyman-Scott rectangular pulse model) for precipitation. Results show that soil moisture is more impacted by changes in precipitation intermittence than precipitation intensity and temperature. Overall, increased temperature and precipitation intensity associated with more intermittent precipitation leads to decreased soil moisture and an increase in the annual number of days with dry soil moisture conditions. In particular, a temperature increase of +4 °C combined with a decrease of annual rainfall between 10 and 20 %, corresponding to the current available climate scenarios for the Mediterranean, lead to a lengthening of the drought period from June to October 15 with in average +22 days of soil moisture drought per year.

Download Full-text

Climate Scenarios in the Mediterranean Region

Forest - Rivista di Selvicoltura ed Ecologia Forestale ◽

10.3832/efor0250-0020019 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 19-30 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

S Gualdi ◽

A Navarra

Keyword(s):

Mediterranean Region ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Mediterranean

Download Full-text

Modeling the response of soil moisture to climate variability in the Mediterranean region

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-25-653-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 25 (2) ◽

pp. 653-669

Author(s):

Louise Mimeau ◽

Yves Tramblay ◽

Luca Brocca ◽

Christian Massari ◽

Stefania Camici ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Precipitation Intensity ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Moisture Condition ◽

Soil Moisture Condition ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean region indicate a possible decrease in annual precipitation associated with an intensification of extreme rainfall events in the coming years. A major challenge in this region is to evaluate the impacts of changing precipitation patterns on extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. For this, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on soil moisture since it is a proxy for agricultural droughts, and the antecedent soil moisture condition plays a key role on runoff generation. This study focuses on 10 sites, located in southern France, with available soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation observations for a 10-year time period. Soil moisture is simulated at each site at the hourly time step using a model of soil water content. The sensitivity of the simulated soil moisture to different changes in precipitation and temperature is evaluated by simulating the soil moisture response to temperature and precipitation scenarios generated using a delta change method for temperature and a stochastic model (the Neyman–Scott rectangular pulse model) for precipitation. Results show that soil moisture is more impacted by changes in precipitation intermittence than precipitation intensity and temperature. Overall, increased temperature and precipitation intensity associated with more intermittent precipitation leads to decreased soil moisture and an increase in the annual number of days with dry soil moisture conditions. In particular, a temperature increase of +4 ∘C combined with a decrease of annual rainfall between 10 % and 20 %, corresponding to the current available climate scenarios for the Mediterranean, lead to a lengthening of the drought period from June to October with an average of +28 d of soil moisture drought per year.

Download Full-text

Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Earth-Science Reviews ◽

10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 210 ◽

pp. 103348 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Yves Tramblay ◽

Aristeidis Koutroulis ◽

Luis Samaniego ◽

Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano ◽

Florence Volaire ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mediterranean Region ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Drought Assessment ◽

The Mediterranean

Download Full-text

Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: present and future climate scenarios derived from a general circulation model (HadAM3P)

Advances in Geosciences ◽

10.5194/adgeo-7-9-2006 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 7 ◽

pp. 9-14 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

Chr. Anagnostopoulou ◽

K. Tolika ◽

H. Flocas ◽

P. Maheras

Keyword(s):

General Circulation Model ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

General Circulation ◽

Atmospheric General Circulation Model ◽

Southern Italy ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Cyclonic Activity ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Atmospheric General Circulation ◽

The Mediterranean

Abstract. In this paper, an attempt is made to assess and evaluate the skill of the Hadley Center atmospheric General Circulation Model (HadAM3P) in generating successfully the frequency and intensity of severe cyclones (<1000 hPa) in the Mediterranean region. The cyclonic occurrence is studied in three regions of enhanced cyclonic activity: Gulf of Genoa, Southern Italy and Cyprus. It was found that the HadAM3P predicts a future decrease of the frequency of the severe cyclones at the SLP level, but the future cyclones will be more intense (deeper), especially at the 500 hPa level.

Download Full-text