scholarly journals Early Uncertainty Quantification for an Improved Decision Support Modeling Workflow: A Streamflow Reliability and Water Quality Example

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brioch Hemmings ◽  
Matthew J. Knowling ◽  
Catherine R. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Model Design

Effective decision making for resource management is often supported by combining predictive models with uncertainty analyses. This combination allows quantitative assessment of management strategy effectiveness and risk. Typically, history matching is undertaken to increase the reliability of model forecasts. However, the question of whether the potential benefit of history matching will be realized, or outweigh its cost, is seldom asked. History matching adds complexity to the modeling effort, as information from historical system observations must be appropriately blended with the prior characterization of the system. Consequently, the cost of history matching is often significant. When it is not implemented appropriately, history matching can corrupt model forecasts. Additionally, the available data may offer little decision-relevant information, particularly where data and forecasts are of different types, or represent very different stress regimes. In this paper, we present a decision support modeling workflow where early quantification of model uncertainty guides ongoing model design and deployment decisions. This includes providing justification for undertaking (or forgoing) history matching, so that unnecessary modeling costs can be avoided and model performance can be improved. The workflow is demonstrated using a regional-scale modeling case study in the Wairarapa Valley (New Zealand), where assessments of stream depletion and nitrate-nitrogen contamination risks are used to support water-use and land-use management decisions. The probability of management success/failure is assessed by comparing the proximity of model forecast probability distributions to ecologically motivated decision thresholds. This study highlights several important insights that can be gained by undertaking early uncertainty quantification, including: i) validation of the prior numerical characterization of the system, in terms of its consistency with historical observations; ii) validation of model design or indication of areas of model shortcomings; iii) evaluation of the relative proximity of management decision thresholds to forecast probability distributions, providing a justifiable basis for stopping modeling.

Review of classification studies for machine learning in the development of intelligent management decision support systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 89 ◽  
pp. 20-29
Author(s):  
Sh. K. Kadiev ◽  
◽  
R. Sh. Khabibulin ◽  
P. P. Godlevskiy ◽  
V. L. Semikov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Classification Methods ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Intelligent Management ◽  
Management Decision Support

Introduction. An overview of research in the field of classification as a method of machine learning is given. Articles containing mathematical models and algorithms for classification were selected. The use of classification in intelligent management decision support systems in various subject areas is also relevant. Goal and objectives. The purpose of the study is to analyze papers on the classification as a machine learning method. To achieve the objective, it is necessary to solve the following tasks: 1) to identify the most used classification methods in machine learning; 2) to highlight the advantages and disadvantages of each of the selected methods; 3) to analyze the possibility of using classification methods in intelligent systems to support management decisions to solve issues of forecasting, prevention and elimination of emergencies. Methods. To obtain the results, general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge were used - analysis, synthesis, generalization, as well as the classification method. Results and discussion thereof. According to the results of the analysis, studies with a mathematical formulation and the availability of software developments were identified. The issues of classification in the implementation of machine learning in the development of intelligent decision support systems are considered. Conclusion. The analysis revealed that enough algorithms were used to perform the classification while sorting the acquired knowledge within the subject area. The implementation of an accurate classification is one of the fundamental problems in the development of management decision support systems, including for fire and emergency prevention and response. Timely and effective decision by officials of operational shifts for the disaster management is also relevant. Key words: decision support, analysis, classification, machine learning, algorithm, mathematical models.

scholarly journals Production, Validation and Morphometric Analysis of a Digital Terrain Model for Lake Trichonis Using Geospatial Technologies and Hydroacoustics

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Triantafyllia-Maria Perivolioti ◽  
Antonios Mouratidis ◽  
Dimitrios Terzopoulos ◽  
Panagiotis Kalaitzis ◽  
Dimitrios Ampatzidis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Morphometric Analysis ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Digital Terrain Model ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Relative Difference ◽  
Systematic Observation ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Terrain Model ◽  
Digital Terrain

Covering an area of approximately 97 km2 and with a maximum depth of 58 m, Lake Trichonis is the largest and one of the deepest natural lakes in Greece. As such, it constitutes an important ecosystem and freshwater reserve at the regional scale, whose qualitative and quantitative properties ought to be monitored. Depth is a crucial parameter, as it is involved in both qualitative and quantitative monitoring aspects. Thus, the availability of a bathymetric model and a reliable DTM (Digital Terrain Model) of such an inland water body is imperative for almost any systematic observation scenario or ad hoc measurement endeavor. In this context, the purpose of this study is to produce a DTM from the only official cartographic source of relevant information available (dating back approximately 70 years) and evaluate its performance against new, independent, high-accuracy hydroacoustic recordings. The validation procedure involves the use of echosoundings coupled with GPS, and is followed by the production of a bathymetric model for the assessment of the discrepancies between the DTM and the measurements, along with the relevant morphometric analysis. Both the production and validation of the DTM are conducted in a GIS environment. The results indicate substantial discrepancies between the old DTM and contemporary acoustic data. A significant overall deviation of 3.39 ± 5.26 m in absolute bottom elevation differences and 0.00 ± 7.26 m in relative difference residuals (0.00 ± 2.11 m after 2nd polynomial model corrector surface fit) of the 2019 bathymetric dataset with respect to the ~1950 lake DTM and overall morphometry appear to be associated with a combination of tectonics, subsidence and karstic phenomena in the area. These observations could prove useful for the tectonics, geodynamics and seismicity with respect to the broader Corinth Rift region, as well as for environmental management and technical interventions in and around the lake. This dictates the necessity for new, extensive bathymetric measurements in order to produce an updated DTM of Lake Trichonis, reflecting current conditions and tailored to contemporary accuracy standards and state-of-the-art research in various disciplines in and around the lake.

scholarly journals Modelling Exposure by Spraying Activities—Status and Future Needs

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 7737
Author(s):  
Stefan Hahn ◽  
Jessica Meyer ◽  
Michael Roitzsch ◽  
Christiaan Delmaar ◽  
Wolfgang Koch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Model Accuracy ◽  
Efficient Manner ◽  
User Perspective ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Spray Applications

Spray applications enable a uniform distribution of substances on surfaces in a highly efficient manner, and thus can be found at workplaces as well as in consumer environments. A systematic literature review on modelling exposure by spraying activities has been conducted and status and further needs have been discussed with experts at a symposium. This review summarizes the current knowledge about models and their level of conservatism and accuracy. We found that extraction of relevant information on model performance for spraying from published studies and interpretation of model accuracy proved to be challenging, as the studies often accounted for only a small part of potential spray applications. To achieve a better quality of exposure estimates in the future, more systematic evaluation of models is beneficial, taking into account a representative variety of spray equipment and application patterns. Model predictions could be improved by more accurate consideration of variation in spray equipment. Inter-model harmonization with regard to spray input parameters and appropriate grouping of spray exposure situations is recommended. From a user perspective, a platform or database with information on different spraying equipment and techniques and agreed standard parameters for specific spraying scenarios from different regulations may be useful.

scholarly journals A Participatory and Spatial Multicriteria Decision Approach to Prioritize the Allocation of Ecosystem Services to Management Units

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 747
Author(s):  
Marlene Marques ◽  
Keith M. Reynolds ◽  
Susete Marques ◽  
Marco Marto ◽  
Steve Paplanus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Collaborative Management ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Wood Production ◽  
Forest Owners ◽  
Management Units ◽  
Multicriteria Decision

Forest management planning can be challenging when allocating multiple ecosystem services (ESs) to management units (MUs), given the potentially conflicting management priorities of actors. We developed a methodology to spatially allocate ESs to MUs, according to the objectives of four interest groups—civil society, forest owners, market agents, and public administration. We applied a Group Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support System approach, combining (a) Multicriteria Decision Analysis to weight the decision models; (b) a focus group and a multicriteria Pareto frontier method to negotiate a consensual solution for seven ESs; and (c) the Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) system to prioritize the allocation of ESs to MUs. We report findings from an application to a joint collaborative management area (ZIF of Vale do Sousa) in northwestern Portugal. The forest owners selected wood production as the first ES allocation priority, with lower priorities for other ESs. In opposition, the civil society assigned the highest allocation priorities to biodiversity, cork, and carbon stock, with the lowest priority being assigned to wood production. The civil society had the highest mean rank of allocation priority scores. We found significant differences in priority scores between the civil society and the other three groups, highlighting the civil society and market agents as the most discordant groups. We spatially evaluated potential for conflicts among group ESs allocation priorities. The findings suggest that this approach can be helpful to decision makers, increasing the effectiveness of forest management plan implementation.

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