scholarly journals Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Prediction of Mortality of Type 2 Diabetic Kidney Disease in China: A Modeling Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Wu ◽  
Jianqiang Du ◽  
Linchang Li ◽  
Wangnan Cao ◽  
Shengzhi Sun

BackgroundThe burden of type 2 diabetic kidney disease (DKD) continues to rise in China. We analyzed time trends in DKD mortality and associations with age, period, and birth cohort from 1990 to 2019, made projections up to 2030, and examined the drivers of deaths from DKD.Methods and FindingsThe number of DKD deaths in China from 1990 to 2019 was obtained from the GBD 2019. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate age, period, and cohort effects in DKD mortality between 1990 and 2019. We calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rates), period, and cohort relative risks. We used Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations to project future age-specific DKD death cases from 2020 to 2030. We used a validated decomposition algorithm to attribute changes in DKD deaths to population growth, population aging, and epidemiologic changes from 1990 to 2030. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate of DKD in China was relatively stable, but the absolute number of DKD deaths showed a noticeable increasing trend. The overall annual percentage change (net drift) was -0.75% (95% confidence interval, CI: -0.93 to -0.57) for males and -1.90% (95% CI, -2.19 to -1.62) for females. The age-specific annual percentage changes (local drifts) were below zero in all age groups from 1990 to 2019 except for males aged above 65 to 69 years, and for females aged above 70 to 74 years. The risk of DKD deaths increased exponentially with age for both sexes after controlling for period deviations. The Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis projects that there would be 88,803 deaths from DKD in 2030, increased by 224.2% from 1990. Despite a decrease in age-specific DKD death rates, the reduction would be entirely offset by population aging.ConclusionsAlthough China has made progress in reducing DKD deaths, demographic changes have entirely offset the progress. The burden of DKD deaths is likely to continue increasing. Our findings suggest that large-scale screening is imperative for DKD control and prevention, particularly for high-risk groups.

Diabetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 539-P
Author(s):  
YOSHINORI KAKUTANI ◽  
MASANORI EMOTO ◽  
KATSUHITO MORI ◽  
YUKO YAMAZAKI ◽  
AKINOBU OCHI ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yijun Xie ◽  
Yijie Jia ◽  
Cuihua Xie ◽  
Fang Hu ◽  
Meng Xue ◽  
...  

Nefrología ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 503-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivo Laranjinha ◽  
Patrícia Matias ◽  
Sofia Mateus ◽  
Filipa Aguiar ◽  
Patrícia Pereira ◽  
...  

Antioxidants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1754
Author(s):  
Itaru Monno ◽  
Yoshio Ogura ◽  
Jing Xu ◽  
Daisuke Koya ◽  
Munehiro Kitada

Lifestyle improvement, including through exercise, has been recognized as an important mode of therapy for the suppression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). However, the detailed molecular mechanisms by which exercise exerts beneficial effects in the suppression of DKD have not yet been fully elucidated. In this study, we investigate the effects of treadmill exercise training (TET) for 8 weeks (13 m/min, 30 min/day, 5 days/week) on kidney injuries of type 2 diabetic male rats with obesity (Wistar fatty (fa/fa) rats: WFRs) at 36 weeks of age. TET significantly suppressed the levels of albuminuria and urinary liver-type fatty-acid-binding protein (L-FABP), tubulointerstitial fibrosis, inflammation, and oxidative stress in the kidneys of WFRs. In addition, TET mitigated excessive apoptosis and restored autophagy in the renal cortex, as well as suppressed the development of morphological abnormalities in the mitochondria of proximal tubular cells, which were also accompanied by the restoration of AMP-activated kinase (AMPK) activity and suppression of the mechanistic target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1). In conclusion, TET ameliorates diabetes-induced kidney injury in type 2 diabetic fatty rats.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-103
Author(s):  
Sindou Sanogo ◽  
Serge Didier Konan ◽  
Kouamé Hubert Yao ◽  
Emma Kouassi ◽  
Séry Patrick Diopoh ◽  
...  

Introduction: Diabetes mellitus is a disease whose prevalence has been steadily increasing worldwide. Objectives: To evaluate the prevalence of diabetic kidney disease and to identify the associated factors in type 2 diabetic patients. Material and Methods: This was a descriptive and analytical cross-sectional study. The study was conducted over a period from January to June 2016, among patients with type 2 diabetes, followed up at the Division of Diabetology of the University Hospital of Treichville, Abidjan. Results: Of 154 included patients, diabetic nephropathy (DN) was observed in 40 cases (25.9% prevalence). We observed a female predominance (sex ratio; 0.17) and the mean age of 57.7 ± 11 years. Based on the K/DOQI guidelines, half of our patients had stage 3 kidney disease. Complications such as diabetic retinopathy (100%), hypertension (HT) (75%), dyslipidemia (45%) and obesity (30%) were found. Factors such as female sex (P = 0.001; OR [95% CI] = 4.76 [1.85-12.19]), a range 55-65 years old (P = 0.010; OR [95% CI] = 2.64 [1.26-5.53]), obesity (P = 0.012; OR [95% CI] = 3.06 [1.27-7.36]), hypertension (P = 0.0001; OR [95% CI] = 4.77 [2.12-10.71]) and HbA1c <7% (P = 0.002; OR [94% CI] = 3.42 [1.57-7.44]) were associated with nephropathy by multivariate analysis. Conclusion: the prevalence of diabetic kidney disease is high in our study. The associated factors are non-modifiable such as female gender and age, but also modifiable such as obesity and hypertension.


2019 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 104506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenting Liu ◽  
Xiaowen Chen ◽  
Yuxian Wang ◽  
Yihua Chen ◽  
Sijia Chen ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir Assaad Khalil ◽  
Magdy Helmy Megallaa ◽  
Kamel Hemida Rohoma ◽  
Myriam AbouSeif Guindy ◽  
Adel Zaki ◽  
...  

Background: In Egypt, data on the prevalence of chronic diabetic complications, which are essential for the adjustment of policies and practices related to diabetes care, are scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the frequency of chronic complications of diabetes; namely neuropathy, Diabetic Kidney Disease (DKD), retinopathy and Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD) in newly-diagnosed versus known type 2 diabetic patients. Subjects & Methods: This is a cross-sectional study that is based on a previous household survey conducted on a representative sample of the population of Alexandria, Egypt. This study included 506 consecutive subjects with type 2 diabetes; 323 patients with previously known T2DM and 183 patients with newly diagnosed T2DM (discovered during the survey). For each participant, a focused history was taken. Comprehensive clinical examination was done including fundus examination, foot examination and assessment of ankle brachial index. Laboratory tests included HbAlc, lipids profile, serum creatinine and Urinary Albumin Creatinine Ratio (UACR). Results: Peripheral neuropathy was detected in 20% of the studied patients; 29.4% of known patients and 3.3% of newly diagnosed patients (p<0.001). Diabetic kidney disease was detected in 33.2% of the studied patients; 46.1% of known patients and 10.4% of newly diagnosed patients (p<0.001). Diabetic retinopathy was detected in 34.6% of the studied patients; 48.3% of known patients and 10.4% of newly diagnosed patients (p<0.001). Peripheral arterial disease was detected in 32.6% of the studied patients; 45.5% of known patients and 9.8% of newly diagnosed patients (p<0.001). In patients with known diabetes, the presence of any of the studied complications (neuropathy, diabetic kidney disease, retinopathy or PAD) was significantly associated with the presence of all other complications (p< 0.001). In patients with newly-diagnosed diabetes, the presence of diabetic kidney disease was significantly associated with the presence of retinopathy (p<0.001), with no significant association with PAD (p=0.357). Conclusion: The present study confirms that a considerable proportion of people with T2DM have microvascular complications and/or PAD at the time of, and possibly years before, diagnosis. Having shown that, it is strongly recommended to apply appropriate screening strategies for subjects with diabetes at the time of diagnosis. Finally, these results should be considered as a call for action for the health care planners and providers in our region to plan for early screening for diabetes and its complications to reduce the disease burden in our community.


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