scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Spontaneous Hemorrhagic Transformation After Ischemic Stroke

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenchen Wei ◽  
Junfeng Liu ◽  
Wen Guo ◽  
Yuxi Jin ◽  
Quhong Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Hemorrhagic Transformation ◽  
Baseline Risk ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Derivation Cohort

Background: Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) after reperfusion therapy for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) has been well studied; however, there is scarce research focusing on spontaneous HT (sHT). Spontaneous HT is no less important with a relatively high incidence and could be associated with neurological worsening. We aimed to develop and validate a simple and practical model to predict sHT after AIS (SHAIS) and compared the predictive value of the SHAIS score against the models of post-Reperfusion HT for sHT.Methods: Patients with AIS admitted within 24 h of onset were prospectively screened to develop and validate the SHAIS score. The primary outcome was sHT during hospitalization (within 30 days after onset), and the secondary outcomes were symptomatic sHT and parenchymal hematoma (PH). Clinical information, laboratory, and neuroimaging data were screened to construct the SHAIS score. We selected six commonly used scales for predicting HT after reperfusion therapy and compared their predictive ability for sHT with the SHAIS score using Delong's test.Results: The derivation cohort included 539 patients (mean age, 68.1 years; men, 61.4%), of whom 91 (16.9%) patients developed sHT with 25.3% (23/91) being symptomatic sHT and 62.6% (57/91) being PH. Five variables (atrial fibrillation, NIHSS score ≥ 10, hypodensity > 1/3 of middle cerebral artery territory, hyperdense artery sign, and anterior circulation infarction) composed the SHAIS score, which ranged from 0 to 11 points. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.86 (95% CI 0.82–0.91, p < 0.001) for the overall sHT, 0.85 (95% CI 0.76–0.92, p < 0.001) for symptomatic sHT, and 0.89 (95% CI 0.85–0.94, p < 0.001) for PH. No evidence of miscalibration of the SHAIS score was found to predict the overall sHT (p = 0.19), symptomatic sHT (p = 0.44), and PH (p = 0.22). The internal (n = 245) and external validation cohorts (n = 200) depicted similar predictive performance compared to the derivation cohort. The SHAIS score had a higher AUC to predict sHT than any of the six pre-Existing models (p < 0.05).Conclusions: The SHAIS score provides an easy-to-use model to predict sHT, which could help providers with decision-making about treatments with high bleeding risk, and to counsel patients and families on the baseline risk of HT, aligning expectations with probable outcomes.

Abstract 164: Outcome Prediction After Endovascular Reperfusion Therapy For Acute Ischemic Stroke: The SNARL Score

Stroke ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shyam Prabhakaran ◽  
Kevin N Sheth ◽  
John B Terry ◽  
Raul G Nogueira ◽  
Anat Horev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Outcome Prediction ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Good Outcome ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Pre Treatment

Background: Tools to predict outcome after endovascular reperfusion therapy (ERT) for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) have previously included only pre-treatment variables. We sought to derive and validate an outcome prediction score based on readily available pre-treatment and treatment factors. Methods: The derivation cohort consisted of 516 patients with anterior circulation AIS from 9 centers from September 2009-July 2011. The validation cohort consisted of 110 patients with anterior circulation AIS from the Penumbra Pivotal Trial. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors of good outcome, defined as a modified Rankin Score (mRS) of < 2, in the derivation sample; model beta coefficients were used to assign point scores. Discrimination was tested using C-statistics. We then validated the score in the Penumbra cohort and performed calibration (predicted versus observed good outcome) in both cohorts. Results: Good outcome at 3 months was noted in 189 (36.8%) patients in the derivation cohort. The independent predictors of good outcome were A ge (2 pts: <60; 1 pt: 60-79; 0 pts: >79), N IHSS score (4 pts: 0-10; 2 pts: 11-20; 0 pts: > 20), L ocation of clot (2 pts: M2; 1 pt: M1; 0 pts: ICA), R ecanalization (5 pts: TICI 2 or 3), and S ymptomatic hemorrhage (2 pts: none, HT1-2, or PH1; 0 pts: PH2). The outcome (SNARL) score demonstrated good discrimination in the derivation cohort (C-statistic 0.78, 95% CI 0.72-0.78) and validation cohort (C-statistic 0.74, 95% CI 0.64-0.84). There was excellent calibration in each cohort (Figure). Conclusions: The SNARL score is a validated tool to determine the probability of functional recovery among AIS treated with endovascular reperfusion strategies. Unlike previous scores that did not include treatment factors such as successful recanalization or hemorrhagic complications, our score can be applied to patients after treatment and may provide guidance to physicians, patients, and families about expected functional outcome.

Abstract TMP85: Predictive Score of Hemorrhagic Transformation in Patients Not Submitted to Reperfusion Therapies - PROpHET

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joao B Andrade ◽  
Gisele S Silva ◽  
Jay P Mohr ◽  
Joao J Carvalho ◽  
Luisa Franciscatto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Predictive Score ◽  
Brier Score ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Digital Version

Objective: To create an accurate and user-friendly pr edictive sc o re for he morrhagic t ransformation in patients not submitted to reperfusion therapies (PROpHET). Methods: We created a multivariable logistic regression model to assess the prediction of Hemorrhage Transformation (HT) for acute ischemic strokes not treated with reperfusion therapy. One point was assigned for each of gender, cardio-aortic embolism, hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign, leukoaraiosis, hyperglycemia, 2 points for ASPECTS ≤7, and -3 points for lacunar syndrome. Acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to the Fortaleza Comprehensive Stroke Center in Brazil from 2015 to 2017 were randomly selected to the derivation cohort. The validation cohort included similar, but not randomized, cases from 5 Brazilian and one American Comprehensive Stroke Centers. Symptomatic cases were defined as NIHSS ≥4 at 24 hours after the event. Results from the derivation and validation cohorts were assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Results: From 2,432 of acute ischemic stroke screened in Fortaleza, 448 were prospectively selected for the derivation cohort and a 7-day follow-up. From 1,847 not selected, 577 underwent reperfusion therapy, 734 were excluded due to inadequate imaging or refusal of consent, and 538 whose data were obtained retrospectively and were selected only for the validation cohort. A score ≥3 had 78% sensitivity and 75% specificity, AUC-ROC 0.82 for all cases of HT, Hosmer-Lemeshow 0.85, Brier Score 0.1, and AUC-ROC 0.83 for those with symptomatic HT. An AUC-ROC of 0.84 was found for the validation cohort of 1,910 from all 6 centers, and a score ≥3 was found in 65% of patients with HT against 11.3% of those without HT. In comparison with 8 published predictive scores of HT, PROpHET was the most accurate (p < 0.01). Conclusions: PROpHET offers a tool simple, quick and easy-to-perform to estimate risk stratification of HT in patients not submitted to RT. A digital version of PROpHET is available in www.score-prophet.com Classification of evidence: This study provides Class I evidence from prospective data acquisition.

Abstract TP13: External Validation of Stroke Prognostication Scales - A Retrospective Cohort Study

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nauman Jahangir ◽  
Nicholas Lanzotti ◽  
Kyle Gollon ◽  
Mehwish Farooqi ◽  
Michael Buhnerkempe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Discriminatory Ability ◽  
Single Center Study

Introduction: In recent years, many scoring models have been proposed to predict clinical outcomes after acute ischemic stroke. Aim of our study was to perform a comparative analysis of these scoring systems to assess predictive reliability. Method: This retrospective single center study included 166 community-based patients presenting with an acute ischemic stroke between 2015 and 2018 who had undergone mechanical thrombectomy with or without IV r-tPA administration prior to the procedure. Patients with unknown 90 day Modified Ranking Scale (mRS) were excluded from the study. We included SPAN-100, THRIVE, HIAT2, iScore , TPI, DRAGON, ASTRAL and HAT predictive models to our study. To predict MRS at 90 days, we first dichotomize mRS into two groups: scores of 0 and 1 and scores 2 and above. We then used logistic regression to find the association between a stroke score and the probability of having a 90-day mRS of 2 or above. Separate univariate logistic regressions were fit for each stroke score. We assessed the ability of each stroke score to predict 90-day mRS using the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC - plot of sensitivity against 1-specificity). AUC values range from 0.5 to 1 with values above 0.7 showing good discriminatory ability. Results: SPAN-100, HIAT2, iScore, and ASTRAL scores have similar predictive ability with AUC values over 0.7 (Table 1). The ASTRAL score had the highest predictive ability with a score above 31.5 indicating a high likelihood of a 90-day MRS ≥ 2 (Table 1). The TPI, DRAGON, and HAT scores all had AUCs below 0.65 indicating poor predictive performance in our data. Conclusion: The SPAN-100, HIAT2, iScore, and ASTRAL scores reliably predicts 90-day mRS of 2 or greater in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

scholarly journals Serum Occludin Level Combined With NIHSS Score Predicts Hemorrhage Transformation in Ischemic Stroke Patients With Reperfusion

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuhua Yuan ◽  
Weili Li ◽  
Chengbei Hou ◽  
Huining Kang ◽  
Qingfeng Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Clinical Information ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Hemorrhagic Transformation ◽  
Stroke Severity ◽  
Stroke Patients ◽  
Nihss Score

Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) is a severe complication following acute ischemic stroke, particularly with reperfusion interventions, leading to poor prognosis. Serum occludin level is related with blood brain barrier disruption, and the National Institute of Health stroke scale (NIHSS) score reflects stroke severity. We investigated whether the two covariates are independently associated with HT and their combination can improve the accuracy of HT prediction in ischemic stroke patients with reperfusion therapy. Seventy-six patients were screened from the established database of acute ischemic stroke in our previous study, which contains all clinical information, including serum occludin levels, baseline NIHSS score, and hemorrhagic events. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that serum occludin level (OR = 4.969, 95% CI: 2.069–11.935, p &lt; 0.001) and baseline NIHSS score (OR = 1.293, 95% CI 1.079–1.550, p = 0.005) were independent risk factors of HT after adjusting for potential confounders. Compared with non-HT patients, HT patients had higher baseline NIHSS score [12 (10.5–18.0) versus 6 (4–12), p = 0.003] and serum occludin level (5.47 ± 1.25 versus 3.81 ± 1.19, p &lt; 0.001). Moreover, receiver operating characteristic curve based on leave-one-out cross-validation showed that the combination of serum occludin level and NIHSS score significantly improved the accuracy of predicting HT (0.919, 95% CI 0.857–0.982, p &lt; 0.001). These findings suggest that the combination of two methods may provide a better tool for HT prediction in acute ischemic stroke patients with reperfusion therapy.

scholarly journals Prediction of Hemorrhagic Transformation After Ischemic Stroke: Development and Validation Study of a Novel Multi-biomarker Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junfeng Liu ◽  
Yanan Wang ◽  
Yuxi Jin ◽  
Wen Guo ◽  
Quhong Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Hemorrhagic Transformation ◽  
Chinese Patients ◽  
Circulating Biomarkers ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Net Reclassification Improvement ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Multiple Biomarkers

Objectives: We aimed to develop and validate a novel multi-biomarker model for predicting hemorrhagic transformation (HT) risk after acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods: We prospectively included patients with AIS admitted within 24 h of stroke from January 1st 2016 to January 31st 2019. A panel of 17 circulating biomarkers was measured and analyzed in this cohort. We assessed the ability of individual circulating biomarkers and the combination of multiple biomarkers to predict any HT, symptomatic HT (sHT) and parenchymal hematoma (PH) after AIS. The strategy of multiple biomarkers in combination was then externally validated in an independent cohort of 288 Chinese patients.Results: A total of 1207 patients with AIS (727 males; mean age, 67.2 ± 13.9 years) were included as a derivation cohort, of whom 179 patients (14.8%) developed HT. The final multi-biomarker model included three biomarkers [platelets, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios (NLR), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)] from different pathways, showing a good performance for predicting HT in both the derivation cohort (c statistic = 0·64, 95% CI 0·60–0·69), and validation cohort (c statistic = 0·70, 95% CI 0·58–0·82). Adding these three biomarkers simultaneously to the basic model with conventional risk factors improved the ability of HT reclassification [net reclassification improvement (NRI) 65.6%, P &lt; 0.001], PH (NRI 64.7%, P &lt; 0.001), and sHT (NRI 71.3%, P &lt; 0.001).Conclusion: This easily applied multi-biomarker model had a good performance for predicting HT in both the derivation and external validation cohorts. Incorporation of biomarkers into clinical decision making may help to identify patients at high risk of HT after AIS and warrants further consideration.

scholarly journals Hyper-attenuating brain lesions on CT after ischemic stroke and thrombectomy are associated with final brain infarction

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 594-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
FB Cabral ◽  
LH Castro-Afonso ◽  
GS Nakiri ◽  
LM Monsignore ◽  
SRC Fábio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Endovascular Treatment ◽  
Brain Infarction ◽  
Internal Capsule ◽  
Brain Regions ◽  
Hemorrhagic Transformation ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Caudate Nuclei ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Cortical Regions

Purpose Hyper-attenuating lesions, or contrast staining, on a non-contrast brain computed tomography (NCCT) scan have been investigated as a predictor for hemorrhagic transformation after endovascular treatment of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). However, the association of hyper-attenuating lesions and final ischemic areas are poorly investigated in this setting. The aim of the present study was to assess correlations between hyper-attenuating lesions and final brain infarcted areas after thrombectomy for AIS. Methods Data from patients with AIS of the anterior circulation who underwent endovascular treatment were retrospectively assessed. Images of the brain NCCT scans were analyzed in the first hours and late after treatment. The hyper-attenuating areas were compared to the final ischemic areas using the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS). Results Seventy-one of the 123 patients (65.13%) treated were included. The association between the hyper-attenuating region in the post-thrombectomy CT scan and final brain ischemic area were sensitivity (58.3% to 96.9%), specificity (42.9% to 95.6%), positive predictive values (71.4% to 97.7%), negative predictive values (53.8% to 79.5%), and accuracy values (68% to 91%). The highest sensitivity values were found for the lentiform (96.9%) and caudate nuclei (80.4%) and for the internal capsule (87.5%), and the lowest values were found for the M1 (58.3%) and M6 (66.7%) cortices. Conclusions Hyper-attenuating lesions on head NCCT scans performed after endovascular treatment of AIS may predict final brain infarcted areas. The prediction appears to be higher in the deep brain regions compared with the cortical regions.

MRI for prediction of hemorrhagic transformation in acute ischemic stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 (7) ◽  
pp. 964-972 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chong Hyun Suh ◽  
Seung Chai Jung ◽  
Se Jin Cho ◽  
Dong-Cheol Woo ◽  
Woo Yong Oh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Diagnostic Performance ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Threshold Effect ◽  
Hemorrhagic Transformation ◽  
Summary Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Study Heterogeneity

Background Hemorrhagic transformation increases mortality and morbidity in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Purpose The purpose of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for prediction of hemorrhagic transformation in acute ischemic stroke. Material and Methods A systematic literature search of MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed up to 27 July 2018, including the search terms “acute ischemic stroke,” “hemorrhagic transformation,” and “MRI.” Studies evaluating the diagnostic performance of MRI for prediction of hemorrhagic transformation in acute ischemic stroke were included. Diagnostic meta-analysis was conducted with a bivariate random-effects model to calculate the pooled sensitivity and specificity. Subgroup analysis was performed including studies using advanced MRI techniques including perfusion-weighted imaging, diffusion-weighted imaging, and susceptibility-weighted imaging. Results Nine original articles with 665 patients were included. Hemorrhagic transformation is associated with high permeability, hypoperfusion, low apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), and FLAIR hyperintensity. The pooled sensitivity was 82% (95% confidence interval [CI] 61–93) and the pooled specificity was 79% (95% CI 71–85). The area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (95% CI 0.82–0.88). Although study heterogeneity was present in both sensitivity (I2=67.96%) and specificity (I2=78.93%), a threshold effect was confirmed. Studies using advanced MRI showed sensitivity of 92% (95% CI 70–98) and specificity of 78% (95% CI 65–87) to conventional MRI. Conclusion MRI may show moderate diagnostic performance for predicting hemorrhage in acute ischemic stroke although the clinical significance of this hemorrhage is somewhat uncertain.

Acute ischemic stroke in adolescents

Neurology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. e158-e169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Rambaud ◽  
Nicolas Legris ◽  
Yannick Bejot ◽  
Céline Bellesme ◽  
Bertrand Lapergue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Cryptogenic Stroke ◽  
Hemorrhagic Transformation ◽  
National Database ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Treatment Rate ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Male Patients

ObjectiveAdolescence represents a transition period between childhood and adulthood, and only limited information exists about stroke characteristics in this population. Our aim was to describe the clinical and neuroradiologic features, etiologies, initial management, and outcome of ischemic stroke in adolescents.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study evaluated all consecutive patients 10 to 18 years with a first-ever ischemic stroke hospitalized between 2007 and 2017 in 10 French academic centers representing a population of ≈10 million. Extracted data from the national database served as validation.ResultsA total of 60 patients were included (53% male, median age 15.2 years). Diagnosis at first medical contact was misevaluated in 36%, more frequently in posterior than anterior circulation strokes (55% vs 20% respectively, odds ratio 4.8, 95% confidence interval 1.41–16.40, p = 0.01). Recanalization treatment rate was high (n = 19, 32%): IV thrombolysis (17%), endovascular therapy (11.7%), or both IV and intra-arterial thrombolysis (3.3%); safety was good (only 1 asymptomatic hemorrhagic transformation). Despite thorough etiologic workup, 50% of strokes remained cryptogenic. The most common determined etiologies were cardioembolism (15%), vasculitis and autoimmune disorders (12%, occurring exclusively in female patients), and arterial dissections (10%, exclusively in male patients). Recurrent ischemic cerebrovascular events occurred in 12% (median follow-up 19 months). Recurrence rate was 50% in patients with identified vasculopathy but 0% after cryptogenic stroke. Functional outcome was favorable (Rankin Scale score 0–2 at day 90) in 80% of cases.ConclusionsIschemic strokes in adolescents harbor both pediatric and adult features, emphasizing the need for multidisciplinary collaboration in their management. Recanalization treatments appear feasible and safe.

Topographic correlation of infarct area on CT perfusion with functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke

2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Haranhalli ◽  
Nnenna Mbabuike ◽  
Sanjeet S. Grewal ◽  
Tasneem F. Hasan ◽  
Michael G. Heckman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Functional Outcome ◽  
Ct Perfusion ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Infarct Core ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Confounding Variables

OBJECTIVEThe role of CT perfusion (CTP) in the management of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) remains a matter of debate. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between the areas of infarction and penumbra on CTP scans and functional outcome in patients with AIS.METHODSThis was a retrospective review of 100 consecutively treated patients with acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke who underwent CT angiography (CTA) and CTP at admission between February 2011 and October 2014. On CTP, the volume of ischemic core and penumbra was measured using the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS). CTA findings were also noted, including the site of occlusion and regional leptomeningeal collateral (rLMC) score. Functional outcome was defined by modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score obtained at discharge. Associations of CTP and CTA parameters with mRS scores at discharge were assessed using multivariable proportional odds logistic regression models.RESULTSThe median age was 67 years (range 19–95 years), and the median NIH Stroke Scale score was 16 (range 2–35). In a multivariable analysis adjusting for potential confounding variables, having an infarct on CTP scans in the following regions was associated with a worse mRS score at discharge: insula ribbon (p = 0.043), perisylvian fissure (p < 0.001), motor strip (p = 0.007), M2 (p < 0.001), and M5 (p = 0.023). A worse mRS score at discharge was more common in patients with a greater volume of infarct core (p = 0.024) and less common in patients with a greater rLMC score (p = 0.004).CONCLUSIONSThe results of this study provide evidence that several CTP parameters are independent predictors of functional outcome in patients with AIS and have potential to identify those patients most likely to benefit from reperfusion therapy in the treatment of AIS.

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