scholarly journals Early Detection of COVID-19 Waves From Cases in a Neighboring Country With an Open Border

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anil Kamat ◽  
Amrita Sah

Border closure or travel restriction is a critical issue as closing the border early can badly affect the economy of the country, whereas substantial delay can put human lives at stake. While many papers discuss closing the border early in the pandemic, the question of when to close the border has not been addressed well. We have tried to estimate a date of closing the border by taking the reference of a neighboring country with a high correlation in Covid-19 incidence. Here we have used non-linear methods to probe the landscape of correlation between temporal COVID-19 incidences and deaths. We have tested our method on two neighboring countries, Nepal and India, with open borders, where closing the borders are among the top priorities to reduce the spread and spill-out of variants. We have selected these countries as they have close connectivity and intertwined socio-economic network with thousands of people crossing the border every day. We found the distance correlation for COVID-19 incidence between these countries to be statistically significant (p < 0.001) and there is a lag of 6 days for maximum correlation. In addition, we analyzed the correlation for each wave and found the distance correlation for the first phase is 0.8145 (p < 0.001) with a lag of 2 days, and the distance correlation for the second wave is 0.9685 (p < 0.001) without any lag. This study can be a critical planning tool for policymakers and public health practitioners to make an informed decision on border closure in the early days as it is critically associated with the legal and diplomatic agreements and regulations between two countries.

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter van der Graaf ◽  
Lindsay Blank ◽  
Eleanor Holding ◽  
Elizabeth Goyder

Abstract Background The national Public Health Practice Evaluation Scheme (PHPES) is a response-mode funded evaluation programme operated by the National Institute for Health Research School for Public Health Research (NIHR SPHR). The scheme enables public health professionals to work in partnership with SPHR researchers to conduct rigorous evaluations of their interventions. Our evaluation reviewed the learning from the first five years of PHPES (2013–2017) and how this was used to implement a revised scheme within the School. Methods We conducted a rapid review of applications and reports from 81 PHPES projects and sampled eight projects (including unfunded) to interview one researcher and one practitioner involved in each sampled project (n = 16) in order to identify factors that influence success of applications and effective delivery and dissemination of evaluations. Findings from the review and interviews were tested in an online survey with practitioners (applicants), researchers (principal investigators [PIs]) and PHPES panel members (n = 19) to explore the relative importance of these factors. Findings from the survey were synthesised and discussed for implications at a national workshop with wider stakeholders, including public members (n = 20). Results Strengths: PHPES provides much needed resources for evaluation which often are not available locally, and produces useful evidence to understand where a programme is not delivering, which can be used to formatively develop interventions. Weaknesses: Objectives of PHPES were too narrowly focused on (cost-)effectiveness of interventions, while practitioners also valued implementation studies and process evaluations. Opportunities: PHPES provided opportunities for novel/promising but less developed ideas. More funded time to develop a protocol and ensure feasibility of the intervention prior to application could increase intervention delivery success rates. Threats: There can be tensions between researchers and practitioners, for example, on the need to show the 'success’ of the intervention, on the use of existing research evidence, and the importance of generalisability of findings and of generating peer-reviewed publications. Conclusions The success of collaborative research projects between public health practitioners (PHP) and researchers can be improved by funders being mindful of tensions related to (1) the scope of collaborations, (2) local versus national impact, and (3) increasing inequalities in access to funding. Our study and comparisons with related funding schemes demonstrate how these tensions can be successfully resolved.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Stoto ◽  
R Piltch-Loeb ◽  
R Wolfe ◽  
R Albrandt ◽  
A Melnick

Abstract Issue Clark County experienced a measles outbreak that challenged public health authorities. Description of the practice: We conducted a formal After Action Review with state and local health officials, school officials, and others to identify lessons for public health practitioners facing future outbreaks. Results Following the early identification of measles in a child who had recently arrived from Ukraine, active surveillance identified 71 confirmed cases, most in unvaccinated persons under 18 years of age. 4,138 contacts were traced and public health personnel made daily monitoring calls to 816. 53 potential exposure sites in healthcare facilities, schools and other public places were identified and communicated to the public. As a social distancing measure, unvaccinated students, teachers, and staff were excluded from schools in which exposure had occurred. Ascertaining susceptibility status was challenging. The national anti-vaccination sentiment and a parallel outbreak in a New York religious community created challenges in representing community risk while avoiding stigmatization of a community in which the first reported case was identified. Rather than respond to every false claim on social media, the health department developed talking points about emerging issues and engaged the community in dialogue. Lessons Responding to the measles outbreak required innovative approaches to surveillance and contact tracing, social distancing (school exclusions), and emergency risk communication. The response required extensive coordinated efforts of the county and state health departments, school systems, and many other organizations. Mutual aid enabled an influx of resources but managing the surge of responders proved challenging. Key messages Public health emergencies require effective emergency management practices. Carefully conducted After Action Reviews of health emergencies can help public health practitioners identify challenges and innovative practices.


Vaccine ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (19) ◽  
pp. 3423-3427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tasha Epp ◽  
Shannon Waldner ◽  
Judith Wright ◽  
Phil Curry ◽  
Hugh G. Townsend ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul L. Knechtges ◽  
Gregory D. Kearney ◽  
Stephanie L. Richards

2016 ◽  
Vol 84 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renzo Rozzini

<p>Frailty is a common geriatric syndrome that embodies an elevated risk of catastrophic declines in health and function among older adults. Frailty is a condition associated with ageing with associated weakness, slowing, decreased energy, lower activity, and, when severe, unintended weight loss. As a population ages, a central focus of geriatricians and public health practitioners is to understand, and then beneficially intervene on, the factors and processes that put elders at such risk, especially the increased vulnerability to stressors (e.g. extremes of heat and cold, infection, injury, or even changes in medication) that characterizes many older adults. The syndrome of geriatric frailty is hypothesized to reflect impairments in the regulation of multiple physiologic systems, embodying a lack of resilience to physiologic challenges and thus elevated risk for a range of deleterious endpoints. The empirical assessment of geriatric frailty in individuals seeks to capture this or related features.</p><p><strong>Riassunto</strong></p><p>Fragilità è la predisposizione alla rottura, al danno. L’etimologia della parola fragilità da "frango", rompere, rimanda alla nozione di qualche cosa che se sottoposto a una pressione, a un impatto, rischia di danneggiarsi facilmente. E’ dunque una nozione ampia e intuitiva che può avere ambiti di precisazione più diversi a seconda che se ne parli in fisica (dove esistono dei coefficienti esatti) piuttosto che nei campi della morale o del sentimento, dove la valutazione sarà sempre più "poetica" e affidata alla sensibilità individuale.</p>


2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebenezer Olasunkanmi Dada ◽  
Hadijat Oluwatobi Osilagun ◽  
Kelechi Longinus Njoku

Introduction. In spite of doubts over the safety and nutritional benefits of singed cowhide meat, called ponmo in some parts of Nigeria, and its potential negative impact on the hide and leather industry, consumption in Nigeria and many parts of Africa has continued unabated. Objectives. In the present study, physicochemical and genotoxic assessments of wastewater used to rinse ready-to-cook singed cowhide meat were carried out. Methods. Physicochemical analyses were carried out using the American Public Health Association procedures, while genotoxic assessment was carried out using Allium cepa chromosome assay. Results. The results of the physicochemical analyses indicated that some of the parameters, especially metals, were within the threshold of the limits set by the country's regulatory agencies, but some parameters like phosphate, chloride, nitrate, biological oxygen demand, and chemical oxygen demand were higher in concentration. The wastewater inhibited the growth of A. cepa roots and caused a decrease in its mitotic index relative to the control onions exposed to water only. The highest root growth inhibition of 72.14% was induced by a 10% wastewater concentration, while the lowest (53.57%) was induced by a 5% wastewater concentration. In addition, the wastewater induced bi-nucleated, attached, vagrant, C-mitosis, sticky and bridged chromosomal aberrations. Wastewater at a 5% concentration induced the highest significant (P &lt; 0.05) percentage chromosome aberration of 36.62% at 48 hours of exposure. Sticky chromosomes had the highest significant frequency (P &lt;0.01) at the end of the 72-hour exposure period. No chromosomal aberration was observed in the control. Conclusions. These results indicate that singed cowhide meat wastewater is potentially genotoxic and environmentally harmful. Governments, public health practitioners, and relevant stakeholders should work in synergy to discourage the habit of processing cowhide into cowhide meat. Competing Interests. The authors declare no competing financial interests.


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