A System Dynamics Prediction Model of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity: Airport Development Mode Planning and Case Study

Airport environmental carrying capacity (AECC) provides the fundamental conditions for airport development and operation activities. The prediction of AECC is a necessary condition for planning an appropriate development mode for the airport. This paper studies the dynamic prediction method of the AECC to explore the development characteristics of AECC in different airports. Based on the driving force-pressure-state-response (DPSR) framework, the method selects 17 main variables from economic, social, environmental and operational dimensions, and then combines the drawing of causal loop diagrams and the establishment of system flow diagrams to construct the system dynamics (SD) model of AECC. The predicted values of AECC are obtained through SD model simulation and accelerated genetic algorithm projection pursuit (AGA-PP) model calculation. Considering sustainable development needs, different scenarios are set to analyze the appropriate development mode of the airport. The case study of the Pearl River Delta airports resulted in two main conclusions. First, in the same economic zone, different airports with similar aircraft movements have similar development characteristics of AECC. Second, the appropriate development modes for different airports are different, and the appropriate development modes for the airport in different periods are also different. The case study also proves that the AECC prediction based on SD model and AGA-PP model can realize short-term policy formulation and long-term planning for the airport development mode, and provide decision-making support for relevant departments of airport.

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Evaluation of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, China

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society ◽

10.1155/2021/5580313 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Lili Wan ◽

Qiuping Peng ◽

Tianci Zhang ◽

Zhan Wang ◽

Yong Tian

Keyword(s):

Carrying Capacity ◽

Evaluation Method ◽

Comprehensive Evaluation ◽

Projection Pursuit ◽

Indicator System ◽

Development Mode ◽

The Sustainable Development ◽

International Airport ◽

Environmental Carrying Capacity

In order to clarify the comprehensive operational capabilities of the airport and better plan the sustainable development mode of the airport, this paper studies the evaluation method of airport environmental carrying capacity. First, this paper proposes the concept of airport environmental carrying capacity by taking into account the complex characteristics of airports affected by multiple factors and then selects 16 representative evaluation indicators to construct an indicator system based on the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Response (DPSR) framework. Finally, the accelerated genetic algorithm-projection pursuit model is established to model a comprehensive evaluation index, which is used to calculate the airport environmental carrying capacity (AECC). The results of the case study show that the AECC of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN) decreased year by year from 2008 to 2017, which is in line with the coordinated development level of CAN. By analysing the changing mechanism of AECC and indicators, we get 6 key influencing indicators that led to the continuous decline of AECC and put forward some political suggestions to improve the AECC.

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System dynamics modelling for BIM adoption in Thai architectural and engineering design industry

Construction Innovation ◽

10.1108/ci-03-2016-0018 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (4) ◽

pp. 457-474 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Grit Ngowtanasuwan ◽

Bonaventura H.W. Hadikusumo

Keyword(s):

System Dynamics ◽

Engineering Design ◽

Case Studies ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Company Performance ◽

Content Type ◽

Building Information ◽

A Company ◽

Sd Model

Purpose The causal relationships between factors related to building information modelling (BIM) adoption in the Thai architectural and engineering design industry are presented. A model is proposed to explain and forecast the adoption behaviours in the industry. This paper aims to define and compare policies for the adoption of BIM using a company case study. Design/methodology/approach The system dynamics (SD) approach was used. Four companies were selected as case studies for formulating a causal loop diagram. One of the companies was chosen for collecting the quantitative data for the SD model simulation during a ten-month study period. Tests of model validation were conducted for confirmation of, and confidence in, the model. Findings An SD model was formulated for studying BIM adoption. Four policies of BIM adoption were defined to compare with the normal operating business for the company and used as the case study. The quantitative outputs of the SD model revealed that BIM training was the best choice to optimise company performance. Research limitations/implications The case studies comprised architectural and engineering design companies in Thailand; therefore, the findings may not be generalisable to other Thai construction organisations or to other countries. Practical implications The methodology and findings can be used as guidelines for other organisations or countries that are considering BIM adoption to improve their operations. Originality/value The paper highlights the optimum policy for BIM adoption to achieve efficient and effective implementation.

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