scholarly journals Short-Term Spatio-Temporal Drought Forecasting Using Random Forests Model at New South Wales, Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhirup Dikshit ◽  
Biswajeet Pradhan ◽  
Abdullah M. Alamri
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Drought Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Drought Classes ◽  
Statistical Metrics

Droughts can cause significant damage to agriculture and water resources, leading to severe economic losses and loss of life. One of the most important aspect is to develop effective tools to forecast drought events that could be helpful in mitigation strategies. The understanding of droughts has become more challenging because of the effect of climate change, urbanization and water management; therefore, the present study aims to forecast droughts by determining an appropriate index and analyzing its changes, using climate variables. The work was conducted in three different phases, first being the determination of Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), using global climatic dataset of Climate Research Unit (CRU) from 1901–2018. The indices are calculated at different monthly intervals which could depict short-term or long-term changes, and the index value represents different drought classes, ranging from extremely dry to extremely wet. However, the present study was focused only on forecasting at short-term scales for New South Wales (NSW) region of Australia and was conducted at two different time scales, one month and three months. The second phase involved dividing the data into three sample sizes, training (1901–2010), testing (2011–2015) and validation (2016–2018). Finally, a machine learning approach, Random Forest (RF), was used to train and test the data, using various climatic variables, e.g., rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, cloud cover, vapor pressure and temperature (maximum, minimum and mean). The final phase was to analyze the performance of the model based on statistical metrics and drought classes. Regarding this, the performance of the testing period was conducted by using statistical metrics, Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) method. The performance of the model showed a considerably higher value of R2 for both the time scales. However, statistical metrics analyzes the variation between the predicted and observed index values, and it does not consider the drought classes. Therefore, the variation in predicted and observed SPEI values were analyzed based on different drought classes, which were validated by using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)-based Area under the Curve (AUC) approach. The results reveal that the classification of drought classes during the validation period had an AUC of 0.82 for SPEI 1 case and 0.84 for SPEI 3 case. The study depicts that the Random Forest model can perform both regression and classification analysis for drought studies in NSW. The work also suggests that the performance of any model for drought forecasting should not be limited only through statistical metrics, but also by examining the variation in terms of drought characteristics.

Overwintering and spring emergence of Heliothis armigera (Hübner) (Lepi–doptera: Noctuidae) in the Namoi Valley, New South Wales

1979 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. G. L Wilson ◽  
T. Lewis ◽  
R. B. Cunningham
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Heliothis Armigera ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Emergence Period ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Two Phases ◽  
The Times ◽  
Diapause Development

AbstractThe overwintering of Heliothis armigera (Hb.) was studied in the Namoi Valley, north-western New South Wales, Australia. In field observations, over 80% of pupae formed during late April and May were found to be in diapause and did not resume development until September. Moth emergence from diapausing pupae occurred in a protracted period between September and November. Laboratory studies indicated the probability of two phases of diapause development, one completed under cool soil conditions of winter and a second requiring a temperature above about 17° C. The threshold of the second phase was higher than that for non-diapausing pupae and was not normally reached until late September. The times to diapause termination in populations of overwintering pupae were satisfactorily fitted to a geometric distribution, which was reflected in the protracted emergence period of moths in field cages. The limited availability of suitable host-plants for the overwintering generation and for emerging moths is discussed.

scholarly journals BEACH EROSION-ACCRETION AT TWO TIME SCALES

1980 ◽  
Vol 1 (17) ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.G. Thom ◽  
C.M. Bowman
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Field Work ◽  
Beach Erosion ◽  
South Coast ◽  
Temporal Perspective ◽  
Shoreline Position ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Erosion And Accretion

Erosion and accretion on the beachface have been studied at two time scales on the central and south coast of New South Wales, Australia. This research aims at providing a temporal perspective to contemporary problems of beach erosion in areas where the historic map record of changes in shoreline position is poor. Field work has been concentrated at two localities Moruya (lat. 35° 53'S long. 150°09'E) and Newcastle Bight (lat. 32°48'S long. 151°55'E)(Fig. 1).

Trends and characteristics of short-term and frequent representations to emergency departments: A population-based study from New South Wales, Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael M Dinh ◽  
Saartje Berendsen Russell ◽  
Kendall J Bein ◽  
Dane Chalkley ◽  
David Muscatello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Departments ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
South Wales

scholarly journals Administration of indwelling urinary catheters in four Australian Hospitals: cost-effectiveness analysis of a multifaceted nurse-led intervention

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rod Ling ◽  
Michelle Giles ◽  
Andrew Searles
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Incremental Cost ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Cost Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
Urinary Catheters ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
South Wales

Abstract Background Urinary catheters are useful among hospital patients for allowing urinary flows and preparing patients for surgery. However, urinary infections associated with catheters cause significant patient discomfort and burden hospital resources. A nurse led intervention aiming to reduce inpatient catheterisation rates was recently trialled among adult overnight patients in four New South Wales hospitals. It included: ‘train-the trainer’ workshops, site champions, compliance audits and promotional materials. This study is the ‘in-trial’ cost-effectiveness analysis, conducted from the perspective of the New South Wales Ministry of Health. Methods The primary outcome variable was catheterisation rates. Catheterisation and procedure/treatment data were collected in three point prevalence patient surveys: pre-intervention (n = 1630), 4-months (n = 1677), and 9-months post-intervention (n = 1551). Intervention costs were based on trial records while labour costs were gathered from wage awards. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were calculated for 4- and 9-months post-intervention and tested with non-parametric bootstrapping. Sensitivity scenarios recalculated results after adjusting costs and parameters. Results The trial found reductions in catheterisations across the four hospitals between preintervention (12.0 % (10.4 − 13.5 %), n = 195) and the 4- (9.9 % (8.5 − 11.3 %), n = 166 ) and 9- months (10.2 % (8.7 − 11.7 %) n = 158) post-intervention points. The trend was statistically non-significant (p = 0.1). Only one diagnosed CAUTI case was observed across the surveys. However, statistically and clinically significant decreases in catheterisation rates occurred for medical and critical care wards, and among female patients and short-term catheterisations. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios at 4-months and 9-months post-intervention were $188 and $264. Bootstrapping found reductions in catheterisations at positive costs over at least 72 % of iterations. Sensitivity scenarios showed that cost effectiveness was most responsive to changes in catheterisation rates. Conclusions Analysis showed that the association between the intervention and changes in catheterisation rates was not statistically significant. However, the intervention resulted in statistically significant reductions for subgroups including among short-term catheterisations and female patients. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed that reductions in catheterisations were most likely achieved at positive cost. Trial Registration Registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12617000090314). First hospital enrolment, 15/11/2016; last hospital enrolment, 8/12/2016.

Evaluation of legumes for use in short-term leys and natural pastures on the northern slopes of New South Wales

1981 ◽  
Vol 21 (112) ◽  
pp. 485 ◽  
Author(s):  
KA Archer
Keyword(s):  
White Clover ◽  
Dry Matter ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Red Clover ◽  
Subterranean Clover ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The North ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Good Potential

A range of temperate legumes was evaluated for winter and spring production for use as either short-term ley pastures, or, when sown from the air, as introduced species into natural pastures on the higher northern slopes of New South Wales. The species were evaluated with and without the annual application of a compound phosphorus and sulfur fertilizer in four experiments from 1975 to 1978. Haifa white clover (Trifolium repens cv. Haifa) was generally the most productive and persistent species with dry matter production in winter and spring ranging from 21 30 to 3600 kg/ha when sown into prepared seedbeds. In natural pastures with applied fertilizer, yields of Haifa ranged from 100 kg/ha in a dry year to 5000 kg/ha. Other persistent species in both ley and natural pastures were Namoi woolly pod vetch (Vicia dasycarpa cv. Namoi) (1110-3520 kg/ha and 470-3350 kg/ha, respectively) and Hunter River lucerne (Medicago sativa cv. Hunter River) (1290-2500 kg/ha and 480-2350 kg/ha, respectively). These were the only species to establish themselves satisfactorily in the natural pastures. Other species that showed good potential for ley pastures were Hamua red clover (T. pratense cv. Grasslands Hamua), Clare subterranean clover (T. subterraneum cv. Clare) and Kondinin rose clover (T. hirtum cv. Kondinin), but further evaluation of these legumes is required. The barrel medics were productive in their establishment year averaging 2560 kg/ha dry matter but mean yields in subsequent years were less than 100 kg/ha due to poor regeneration. The natural pastures needed fertilizer to ensure adequate levels of production from the sown legumes. In the ley pastures, a response occurred only in the second year of one experiment. The natural species did not respond to fertilizer. It is concluded that Haifa white clover, woolly pod vetch and lucerne offer significant potential for use in both ley and natural pastures on the north-western slopes

A Short-Term Evaluation of Feral Pig Eradication at Willandra in Western New South Wales

1983 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 269 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Hone
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Feral Pigs ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Short Term Evaluation ◽  
Term Evaluation ◽  
Control And Eradication ◽  
Feral Pig

An evaluation was conducted of an attempted eradication of feral pigs by poisoning and shooting, in an area of 50 km2 at Willandra in western New South Wales. Poisoning with 1080 killed 73% of the feral pigs. After the poisoning, 95 of 98 feral pigs seen in the area were shot. The results and their implications for the control and eradication of feral pigs are discussed.

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