scholarly journals Major Consequences of Land-Use Changes for Ecosystems in the Future in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone of Northern China

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 6714
Author(s):  
Xia Xu ◽  
Honglei Jiang ◽  
Lingfei Wang ◽  
Mengxi Guan ◽  
Tong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Transitional Zone ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
The Future

Assessing the effects of future land use and land cover change (LULC) on ecological processes and functions is crucial for improving regional sustainability in arid and semiarid areas. Taking the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone of Northern China (APTZNC) as an example, four IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios scenarios (Scenario of economic emphasis on a regional scale (A1B), Scenario of economic emphasis on a global scale (A2), Scenario of environmental protection on a regional scale (B1), Scenario of environmental protection on a global scale (B2)) were adopted in the study to analyze the influence of the future land use and land cover change on the net primary production (NPP), soil organic matter (SOM), soil total nitrogen (TN), and soil erosion (ERO) using the model of Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator-Land use/land cover model (TES-LUC) linking ecological processes and land-use change dynamics. The results were analyzed from the perspectives of LULC components, LULC conversions, and landscape patterns under the four scenarios. The main results include the following: (1) Environmentally oriented scenarios (A1B and B1) experienced the conservation of forest and grassland; economically oriented scenarios (A2 and B2) were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. (2) The NPP and soil nutrients are the highest while the ERO is the lowest in the woodland; the trend in cultivated land is opposite to that in woodland; the grassland ecosystem function is relatively stable and could make an important contribution to effectively mitigate global climate change. (3) The general trend in NPP, SOM, and TN under the four scenarios is B1 > A1B > baseline (2010) > B2 > A2, and that in ERO is A2 > B2 > baseline (2010) > A1B > B1. (4) Trade-offs between ecosystem functions and the ecological effects of LULC can be evaluated and formulated into decision-making.

The SYPR Integrative Assessment Model: Complexity in Development

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Manson
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Integrated Assessment Modeling ◽  
Global Environmental

Be it global environmental change or environment and development, landuse and land-cover change is central to the dynamics and consequences in question in the southern Yucatán peninsular region. Designing policies to address these impacts is hampered by the difficulty of projecting land use and land cover, not only because the dynamics are complex but also because consequences are strongly place-based. This chapter describes an integrated assessment modeling framework that builds on the research detailed in earlier chapters in order to project land-use and land-cover change in a geographically explicit way. Integrated assessment is a term that describes holistic treatments of complex problems to assess both science and policy endeavors in global environmental change (Rotmans and Dowlatabadi 1998). The most common form of integrated assessment is computer modeling that combines socioeconomic and biogeophysical factors to predict global climate. Advanced in part by the successes of these global-scale models, integrated assessment has expanded to structure knowledge and set research priorities for a large range of coupled human–environment problems. Increasing recognition is given to the need for integrated assessment models to address regionalscale problems that are masked by global-scale assessments (Walker 1994). Such models must address two issues to project successfully land-use and land-cover change at the regional scale. First, change occurs incrementally in spatially distinct patterns that have different implications for global change (Lambin 1994). Second, a model must account for the complexity of, and relationships among, socio-economic and environmental factors (B. L. Turner et al. 1995). The SYPR integrated assessment model, therefore, has a fine temporal and spatial grain and it places land-use and landcover change at the intersection of land-manager decision-making, the environment, and socio-economic institutions. What follows is a description of an ongoing integrated assessment modeling endeavor of the SYPR project (henceforth, SYPR IA model). The depth and breadth of the SYPR project poses a challenge to the integrated assessment modeling effort since some unifying framework must reconcile a broad array of issues, theories, and data. The global change research community offers a general conception of how environmental change results from infrastructure development, population pressure, market opportunities, resource institutions, and environmental or resource policies (Stern, Young, and Drukman 1992).

scholarly journals Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 5053-5067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Li ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Shushi Peng ◽  
Chao Yue ◽  
Yilong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Model Estimate ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
Constraint Approach ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (ELUCc) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and ELUCc. This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of ELUCc range from 94 to 273 PgC during 1901–2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155 ± 50 PgC (1σ Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained ELUCc is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.

scholarly journals Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 597-641 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Pitman ◽  
N. de Noblet-Ducoudré ◽  
F. B. Avila ◽  
L. V. Alexander ◽  
J.-P. Boisier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Change In Mean

Abstract. The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC) on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes is amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperature to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

scholarly journals The influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility: a case study in Zhushan Town, Xuan'en County (Hubei, China)

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 2207-2228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lixia Chen ◽  
Zizheng Guo ◽  
Kunlong Yin ◽  
Dhruba Pikha Shrestha ◽  
Shikuan Jin
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Human Engineering ◽  
Classification Of Images

Abstract. Land use and land cover change can increase or decrease landslide susceptibility (LS) in the mountainous areas. In the hilly and mountainous part of southwestern China, land use and land cover change (LUCC) has taken place in the last decades due to infrastructure development and rapid economic activities. This development and activities can worsen the slope susceptible to sliding due to mostly the cutting of slopes. This study, taking Zhushan Town, Xuan'en County, as the study area, aims to evaluate the influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility at a regional scale. Spatial distribution of landslides was determined in terms of visual interpretation of aerial photographs and remote sensing images, supported by field surveys. Two types of land use and land cover (LUC) maps, with a time interval covering 21 years (1992–2013), were prepared: the first was obtained by the neural net classification of images acquired in 1992 and the second by the object-oriented classification of images in 2002 and 2013. Landslide-susceptible areas were analyzed using the logistic regression model (LRM) in which six influencing factors were chosen as the landslide susceptibility indices. In addition, the hydrologic analysis method was applied to optimize the partitioning of the terrain. The results indicated that the LUCC in the region was mainly the transformation from the grassland and arable land to the forest land, which is increased by 34.3 %. An increase of 1.9 % is shown in the area where human engineering activities concentrate. The comparison of landslide susceptibility maps among different periods revealed that human engineering activities were the most important factor in increasing LS in this region. Such results emphasize the requirement of a reasonable land use planning activity process.

scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of Land Cover Change on Soil Erosion Using Remote Sensing and GIS Data by USLE Model and Scenario Design

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Anmin Fu ◽  
Yulin Cai ◽  
Tao Sun ◽  
Feng Li
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Scenario Design ◽  
Gis Data ◽  
The Impact

Great efforts have been made to curb soil erosion and restore the natural environment to Inner Mongolia in China. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of returning farmland to the forest on soil erosion on a regional scale. Considering that rainfall erosivity also has an important impact on soil erosion, the effect of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on soil erosion was evaluated through scenario construction. Firstly, the universal soil loss equation (USLE) model was used to evaluate the actual soil erosion (2001 and 2010). Secondly, two scenarios (scenario 1 and scenario 2) were constructed by assuming that the land cover and rainfall-runoff erosivity are fixed, respectively, and soil erosion under different scenarios was estimated. Finally, the effect of LUCC on soil erosion was evaluated by comparing the soil erosion under actual situations with the hypothetical scenarios. The results show that both land use/cover change and rainfall-runoff erosivity change have significant effects on soil erosion. The land use and land cover change initiated by the ecological restoration projects have obviously reduced the soil erosion in this area. The results also reveal that the method proposed in this paper is helpful to clarify the influencing factors of soil erosion.

scholarly journals Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Li ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Shushi Peng ◽  
Chao Yue ◽  
Yilong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Large Range ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions, and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of DGVMs however is their large uncertainty. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (EcLUC) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and EcLUC. This method is applicable at global and regional scale. Compared to the large range of EcLUC in the original ensemble (94 to 273 Pg C) during 1901–2012, current biomass observations allow us to derive a new best estimate of 155 ± 50 (1-σ Gaussian error) Pg C. The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions, but significantly lower in North America. Our approach of constraining cumulative LULCC emissions based on biomass observations reduces the uncertainty of the historical carbon budget, and can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.

scholarly journals Land Use and Land Cover Change Modeling and Future Potential Landscape Risk Assessment Using Markov-CA Model and Analytical Hierarchy Process

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biswajit Nath ◽  
Zhihua Wang ◽  
Yong Ge ◽  
Kamrul Islam ◽  
Ramesh P. Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Analytical Hierarchy Process ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
The Future ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Potential Landscape ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) has directly played an important role in the observed climate change. In this paper, we considered Dujiangyan City and its environs (DCEN) to study the future scenario in the years 2025, 2030, and 2040 based on the 2018 simulation results from 2007 and 2018 LULC maps. This study evaluates the spatial and temporal variations of future LULCC, including the future potential landscape risk (FPLR) area of the 2008 great (8.0 Mw) earthquake of south-west China. The Cellular automata–Markov chain (CA-Markov) model and multicriteria based analytical hierarchy process (MC-AHP) approach have been considered using the integration of remote sensing and GIS techniques. The analysis shows future LULC scenario in the years 2025, 2030, and 2040 along with the FPLR pattern. Based on the results of the future LULCC and FPLR scenarios, we have provided suggestions for the development in the close proximity of the fault lines for the future strong magnitude earthquakes. Our results suggest a better and safe planning approach in the Belt and Road Corridor (BRC) of China to control future Silk-Road Disaster, which will also be useful to urban planners for urban development in a safe and sustainable manner.

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