scholarly journals VS-GRU: A Variable Sensitive Gated Recurrent Neural Network for Multivariate Time Series with Massive Missing Values

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (15) ◽  
pp. 3041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qianting Li ◽  
Yong Xu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Real World ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Training Procedure ◽  
Model Training ◽  
Mimic Iii

Multivariate time series are often accompanied with missing values, especially in clinical time series, which usually contain more than 80% of missing data, and the missing rates between different variables vary widely. However, few studies address these missing rate differences and extract univariate missing patterns simultaneously before mixing them in the model training procedure. In this paper, we propose a novel recurrent neural network called variable sensitive GRU (VS-GRU), which utilizes the different missing rate of each variable as another input and learns the feature of different variables separately, reducing the harmful impact of variables with high missing rates. Experiments show that VS-GRU outperforms the state-of-the-art method in two real-world clinical datasets (MIMIC-III, PhysioNet).

scholarly journals Joint Modeling of Local and Global Temporal Dynamics for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (04) ◽  
pp. 5956-5963
Author(s):  
Xianfeng Tang ◽  
Huaxiu Yao ◽  
Yiwei Sun ◽  
Charu Aggarwal ◽  
Prasenjit Mitra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Real World ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Joint Modeling ◽  
Adversarial Training ◽  
Global Patterns ◽  
Real World Datasets

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is widely used in various domains, such as meteorology and traffic. Due to limitations on data collection, transmission, and storage, real-world MTS data usually contains missing values, making it infeasible to apply existing MTS forecasting models such as linear regression and recurrent neural networks. Though many efforts have been devoted to this problem, most of them solely rely on local dependencies for imputing missing values, which ignores global temporal dynamics. Local dependencies/patterns would become less useful when the missing ratio is high, or the data have consecutive missing values; while exploring global patterns can alleviate such problem. Thus, jointly modeling local and global temporal dynamics is very promising for MTS forecasting with missing values. However, work in this direction is rather limited. Therefore, we study a novel problem of MTS forecasting with missing values by jointly exploring local and global temporal dynamics. We propose a new framework øurs, which leverages memory network to explore global patterns given estimations from local perspectives. We further introduce adversarial training to enhance the modeling of global temporal distribution. Experimental results on real-world datasets show the effectiveness of øurs for MTS forecasting with missing values and its robustness under various missing ratios.

scholarly journals XCM: An Explainable Convolutional Neural Network for Multivariate Time Series Classification

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 3137
Author(s):  
Kevin Fauvel ◽  
Tao Lin ◽  
Véronique Masson ◽  
Élisa Fromont ◽  
Alexandre Termier
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Input Data ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Multiple Domains ◽  
Post Hoc

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) classification has gained importance over the past decade with the increase in the number of temporal datasets in multiple domains. The current state-of-the-art MTS classifier is a heavyweight deep learning approach, which outperforms the second-best MTS classifier only on large datasets. Moreover, this deep learning approach cannot provide faithful explanations as it relies on post hoc model-agnostic explainability methods, which could prevent its use in numerous applications. In this paper, we present XCM, an eXplainable Convolutional neural network for MTS classification. XCM is a new compact convolutional neural network which extracts information relative to the observed variables and time directly from the input data. Thus, XCM architecture enables a good generalization ability on both large and small datasets, while allowing the full exploitation of a faithful post hoc model-specific explainability method (Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping) by precisely identifying the observed variables and timestamps of the input data that are important for predictions. We first show that XCM outperforms the state-of-the-art MTS classifiers on both the large and small public UEA datasets. Then, we illustrate how XCM reconciles performance and explainability on a synthetic dataset and show that XCM enables a more precise identification of the regions of the input data that are important for predictions compared to the current deep learning MTS classifier also providing faithful explainability. Finally, we present how XCM can outperform the current most accurate state-of-the-art algorithm on a real-world application while enhancing explainability by providing faithful and more informative explanations.

scholarly journals An Attentional Recurrent Neural Network for Personalized Next Location Recommendation

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (01) ◽  
pp. 83-90
Author(s):  
Qing Guo ◽  
Zhu Sun ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Yin-Leng Theng
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Real World ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Knowledge Graph ◽  
User Mobility ◽  
Location Recommendation ◽  
Meta Path ◽  
Real World Datasets

Most existing studies on next location recommendation propose to model the sequential regularity of check-in sequences, but suffer from the severe data sparsity issue where most locations have fewer than five following locations. To this end, we propose an Attentional Recurrent Neural Network (ARNN) to jointly model both the sequential regularity and transition regularities of similar locations (neighbors). In particular, we first design a meta-path based random walk over a novel knowledge graph to discover location neighbors based on heterogeneous factors. A recurrent neural network is then adopted to model the sequential regularity by capturing various contexts that govern user mobility. Meanwhile, the transition regularities of the discovered neighbors are integrated via the attention mechanism, which seamlessly cooperates with the sequential regularity as a unified recurrent framework. Experimental results on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that ARNN outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

scholarly journals A New Attention Mechanism to Classify Multivariate Time Series

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifan Hao ◽  
Huiping Cao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Attention Mechanism ◽  
Classification Methods ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
Multiple Variables

Classifying multivariate time series (MTS), which record the values of multiple variables over a continuous period of time, has gained a lot of attention. However, existing techniques suffer from two major issues. First, the long-range dependencies of the time-series sequences are not well captured. Second, the interactions of multiple variables are generally not represented in features. To address these aforementioned issues, we propose a novel Cross Attention Stabilized Fully Convolutional Neural Network (CA-SFCN) to classify MTS data. First, we introduce a temporal attention mechanism to extract long- and short-term memories across all time steps. Second, variable attention is designed to select relevant variables at each time step. CA-SFCN is compared with 16 approaches using 14 different MTS datasets. The extensive experimental results show that the CA-SFCN outperforms state-of-the-art classification methods, and the cross attention mechanism achieves better performance than other attention mechanisms.

scholarly journals Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity Forecasting

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 931
Author(s):  
Kecheng Peng ◽  
Xiaoqun Cao ◽  
Bainian Liu ◽  
Yanan Guo ◽  
Wenlong Tian
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
South Asian High ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Adaptive Noise ◽  
Deep Learning Model

The intensity variation of the South Asian high (SAH) plays an important role in the formation and extinction of many kinds of mesoscale systems, including tropical cyclones, southwest vortices in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, and the precipitation in the whole Asia Europe region, and the SAH has a vortex symmetrical structure; its dynamic field also has the symmetry form. Not enough previous studies focus on the variation of SAH daily intensity. The purpose of this study is to establish a day-to-day prediction model of the SAH intensity, which can accurately predict not only the interannual variation but also the day-to-day variation of the SAH. Focusing on the summer period when the SAH is the strongest, this paper selects the geopotential height data between 1948 and 2020 from NCEP to construct the SAH intensity datasets. Compared with the classical deep learning methods of various kinds of efficient time series prediction model, we ultimately combine the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) method, which has the ability to deal with the nonlinear and unstable single system, with the Permutation Entropy (PE) method, which can extract the SAH intensity feature of IMF decomposed by CEEMDAN, and the Convolution-based Gated Recurrent Neural Network (ConvGRU) model is used to train, test, and predict the intensity of the SAH. The prediction results show that the combination of CEEMDAN and ConvGRU can have a higher accuracy and more stable prediction ability than the traditional deep learning model. After removing the redundant features in the time series, the prediction accuracy of the SAH intensity is higher than that of the classical model, which proves that the method has good applicability for the prediction of nonlinear systems in the atmosphere.

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