scholarly journals Climatological Increased Precipitation from July to August in the Western North Pacific Region Simulated by CMIP6 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 664
Author(s):  
Xiao Dong ◽  
Renping Lin
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Observational Analysis ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
Precipitation Increase

In this study, the climatological precipitation increase from July to August over the western North Pacific (WNP) region was investigated through observations and simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), atmospheric model simulations and historical experiments. Firstly, observational analysis showed that the precipitation increase is associated with a decrease in the local sea surface temperature (SST), indicating that the precipitation increase is not driven by the change in SST. In addition, the pattern of precipitation increase is similar to the vertical motion change at 500-hPa, suggesting that the precipitation increase is related to the circulation change. Moisture budget analysis further confirmed this relation. In addition to the observational analysis, the outputs from 26 CMIP6 models were further evaluated. Compared with atmospheric model simulations, air–sea coupled models largely improve the simulation of the climatological precipitation increase from July to August. Furthermore, model simulations confirmed that the bias in the precipitation increase is intimately associated with the circulation change bias. Thus, two factors are responsible for the bias of the precipitation increase from July to August in climate models: air–sea coupling processes and the performance in vertical motion change.

scholarly journals Weakened Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclone during an El Niño–Decaying Summer under a Warmer Climate: Dominant Role of the Weakened Impact of the Tropical Indian Ocean on the Atmosphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 213-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao He ◽  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Tim Li
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Subtropical Anticyclone ◽  
Mean State

Abstract The western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone (WNPAC) is the most prominent atmospheric circulation anomaly over the subtropical Northern Hemisphere during the decaying summer of an El Niño event. Based on a comparison between the RCP8.5 and the historical experiments of 30 coupled models from the CMIP5, we show evidence that the anomalous WNPAC during the El Niño–decaying summer is weaker in a warmer climate although the amplitude of the El Niño remains generally unchanged. The weakened impact of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the atmosphere is essential for the weakened anomalous WNPAC. In a warmer climate, the warm tropospheric temperature (TT) anomaly in the tropical free troposphere stimulated by the El Niño–related SSTA is enhanced through stronger moist adiabatic adjustment in a warmer mean state, even if the SSTA of El Niño is unchanged. But the amplitude of the warm SSTA over TIO remains generally unchanged in an El Niño–decaying summer, the static stability of the boundary layer over TIO is increased, and the positive rainfall anomaly over TIO is weakened. As a result, the warm Kelvin wave emanating from TIO is weakened because of a weaker latent heating anomaly over TIO, which is responsible for the weakened WNPAC anomaly. Numerical experiments support the weakened sensitivity of precipitation anomaly over TIO to local SSTA under an increase of mean-state SST and its essential role in the weakened anomalous WNPAC, independent of any change in the SSTA.

Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical–Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3643-3664 ◽  
Author(s):  
June-Yi Lee ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Kyong-Hwan Seo ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Yong-Sang Choi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns

Abstract Two dominant global-scale teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during boreal summer season (June–August) have been identified: the western North Pacific–North America (WPNA) and circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns. These teleconnection patterns are of critical importance for the NH summer seasonal climate prediction. Here, how these teleconnections will change under anthropogenic global warming is investigated using representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) experiments by 20 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The six best models are selected based on their performance in simulation of the two teleconnection patterns and climatological means and variances of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and sea surface temperature. The selected models capture the CGT and its relationship with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) reasonably well. The models can also capture the WPNA circulation pattern but with striking deficiencies in reproducing its associated rainfall anomalies due to poor simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. The following changes are anticipated in the latter half of twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario: 1) significant weakening of year-to-year variability of the upper-level circulation due to increased atmospheric stability, although the moderate increase in convective heating over the tropics may act to strengthen the variability; 2) intensification of the WPNA pattern and major spectral peaks, particularly over the eastern Pacific–North America and North Atlantic–Europe sectors, which is attributed to the strengthening of its relationship with the preceding mature phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and 3) weakening of the CGT due to atmospheric stabilization and decreasing relationship with ISM as well as weakening of the ISM–ENSO relationship.

scholarly journals An Examination of the Thermodynamic Impacts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Their Tropical Tropospheric Environment

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (19) ◽  
pp. 7529-7560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Schenkel ◽  
Robert E. Hart
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Surface Latent Heat Flux ◽  
Static Energy ◽  
Thermodynamic Anomalies ◽  
Meridional Advection ◽  
Gas Effect ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The present study examines the tropospheric thermodynamic anomalies induced by western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) passage using storm-relative composites. Negative moist static energy (MSE) anomalies containing embedded westward-propagating anomalies generally occur only following larger TCs for two months following TC passage in a region extending from the domain center to ~3000 km to its west. Larger TCs force negative MSE anomalies likely because of feedbacks from stronger, broader TC-induced negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the excitation of TC-induced Rossby waves to the southeast of the TC. The negative MSE anomalies are composed of lower- and midtropospheric negative latent energy anomalies with smaller contributions from boundary layer and upper-tropospheric negative sensible heat anomalies. The lower- and midtropospheric negative MSE anomalies are forced by the TC, whereas the upper-tropospheric negative MSE anomalies are forced by the Madden–Julian oscillation. Vertically integrated MSE budgets at the domain center reveal negative MSE tendencies that are primarily forced by surface latent heat flux anomalies resulting from the TC-induced negative SST anomalies. Smaller negative MSE tendencies are due to 1) zonal and meridional advection of MSE anomalies by the Rossby waves and 2) enhanced top-of-the-atmosphere longwave radiative flux anomalies potentially associated with a reduction in the greenhouse gas effect of water vapor. The budget analysis in the west region is generally similar except that all terms are comparable in magnitude and relatively weaker. These results conservatively suggest that larger TCs can anomalously cool and dry their synoptic-scale environment for ~40 days following TC passage.

Concurrent Decadal Mesoscale Eddy Modulations in the Western North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 344-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Qiu ◽  
Shuiming Chen
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Mesoscale Eddy ◽  
Subtropical Gyre ◽  
Altimeter Data ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
North Pacific Subtropical Gyre ◽  
Mode Water ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Salinity Data

Abstract Satellite altimeter data of the past two decades are used to investigate the low-frequency mesoscale eddy variability inside the western North Pacific subtropical gyre. Eddy activity modulations with a decadal time scale are detected concurrently within the 18°–28°N band, including the three branches of the Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) and the Hawaiian Lee Countercurrent (HLCC). Lagging behind the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index by six months, enhanced eddy activities were detected in 1995–98 and 2003–06, whereas the eddy activities were below the average in 1999–2002 and 2009–11. Analysis of the temperature and salinity data that became available after 2001 via the International Argo Program reveals that the modulating eddy activities are due to the decadal change in the upper-ocean eastward shear in the broad-scale STCC–HLCC band. By conducting an upper-ocean temperature budget analysis, the authors found that this observed eastward shear change can be effectively accounted for by the decadal-varying surface heat flux forcing. Using the Argo-based temperature and salinity data, it is further found that the decadal subsurface potential vorticity (PV) signals to the north and beneath the STCC–HLCC were vertically coherent and not confined to the mode water isopycnals. Adjusting to the PDO-related surface forcing, these subsurface PV anomalies lagged behind the upper-ocean eastward shear signals and likely made minor contributions to generate the decadal-varying eddy signals observed in the western North Pacific subtropical gyre.

scholarly journals Global Warming and Western North Pacific Typhoon Activity from an Observational Perspective

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 4590-4602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny C. L. Chan ◽  
Kin Sik Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Based on results from climate model simulations, many researchers have suggested that because of global warming, the sea surface temperature (SST) will likely increase, which will then lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). This paper reports results of a study of the relationship between SST and observed typhoon activity (which is used as a proxy for the intensity of TCs averaged over a season) over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the past 40 yr. The average typhoon activity over a season is found to have no significant relationship with SST in the WNP but increases when the SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is above normal. The mean annual typhoon activity is generally higher (lower) during an El Niño (La Niña) year. Such interannual variations of typhoon activity appear to be largely constrained by the large-scale atmospheric factors that are closely related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors include low-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and moist static energy. Such results are shown to be physically consistent with one another and with those from previous studies on the interannual variations of TC activity. The results emphasize the danger of drawing conclusions about future TC intensity based on current climate model simulations that are not designed to make such predictions.

scholarly journals Internal Variability of the Dynamically Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific by the IPRC Regional Atmospheric Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 2104-2122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Ruifen Zhan ◽  
Yi Lu ◽  
Yuqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Ensemble Mean

Abstract As synoptic storms, tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly nonlinear systems resulting from multiscale interactions. In particular, the genesis of TCs involves complex nonlinear processes, exhibiting strong internal variability in climate model simulations. This study attempts to examine such internal variability of dynamically downscaled TCs over the western North Pacific Ocean based on four simulations of 20 typhoon seasons (1982−2001) initialized on 4 successive days using the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) Regional Atmospheric Model (iRAM). The results show that on both seasonal and interannual time scales, the initial conditions significantly affect the downscaled TC activity, with the largest internal variability occurring in August on the seasonal time scale. The spreads between any of the individual simulations and the ensemble mean are comparable to and in some circumstances greater than the interannual variation of the observed TC frequency. The internal variability of the downscaled TC activity is found to be insensitive to the amplitude and the pattern of the initial perturbations. However, day-to-day model solutions are strongly affected by the internal variability. As a result, the development of nonlinear atmospheric instabilities significantly modulates the genesis and development of the TC-like vortices, leading to the large internal variability of the downscaled TC activity. In addition to the traditional initial value problem, criteria (in particular, threshold values) used in the TC detection contribute equally to the internal variability of the downscaled TCs in the simulations. Consistent with earlier studies, the results from this study also show that the ensemble mean provides the better downscaled information on seasonal and interannual frequencies of TC genesis and occurrence.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document