Unusual Surface Latent Heat Flux Variations and Their Critical Dynamics Revealed before Strong Earthquakes

We focus on the possible thermal channel of the well-known Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) mechanism to identify the behavior of thermal anomalies during and prior to strong seismic events. For this, we investigate the variation of Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) as resulting from satellite observables. We demonstrate a spatio-temporal variation in the SLHF before and after a set of strong seismic events occurred in Kathmandu, Nepal, and Kumamoto, Japan, having magnitudes of 7.8, 7.3, and 7.0, respectively. Before the studied earthquake cases, significant enhancements in the SLHF were identified near the epicenters. Additionally, in order to check whether critical dynamics, as the signature of a complex phenomenon such as earthquake preparation, are reflected in the SLHF data, we performed a criticality analysis using the natural time analysis method. The approach to criticality was detected within one week before each mainshock.

Role of surface latent heat flux in shallow cloud transitions: A mechanism-denial LES study

Surface latent heat flux (LHF) has been considered as the determinant driver of the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition (SCT). The distinct signature of the LHF in driving the SCT, however, has not been found in observations. This motivates us to ask: how determinant is the LHF to SCT? To answer it, we conduct large-eddy simulations in a Lagrangian setup in which the sea-surface temperature increases over time to mimic a low-level cold air advection. To isolate the role of LHF, we conduct a mechanism-denial experiment in which the LHF adjustment is turned off. The simulations confirm the indispensable roles of LHF in sustaining (although not initiating) the boundary layer decoupling (first stage of SCT) and driving the cloud regime transition (second stage of SCT). However, using theoretical arguments and LES results, we show that decoupling can happen without the need for LHF to increase as long as the capping inversion is weak enough to ensure high entrainment efficiency. The high entrainment efficiency alone cannot sustain the decoupled state without the help of LHF adjustment, leading to the recoupling of the boundary layer that eventually becomes cloud-free. Interestingly, the stratocumulus sheet is sustained longer without LHF adjustment. The mechanisms underlying the findings are explained from the perspectives of cloud-layer budgets of energy (first stage) and liquid water path (second stage).

STEMMUS-UEB v1.0.0: Integrated Modelling of Snowpack and Soil Mass and Energy Transfer with Three Levels of Soil Physical Process Complexities

Snowpack, as the indispensable component in cold regions, has a profound effect on the hydrology and surface energy conditions through its modification of the surface albedo, roughness, and insulating property. Although the modelling of the snowpack, soil water dynamics, and the coupling of the snowpack and underlying soil layer has been widely reported, the analysis of coupled liquid-vapor-air flow mechanisms considering the snowpack effect was not yet investigated in detail. In this study, we incorporated the snowpack effect (Utah Energy Balance model, UEB) into a common modeling framework (Simultaneous Transfer of Energy, Mass, and Momentum in Unsaturated Soils with Freeze-Thaw, STEMMUS-FT), with various complexities of mass and energy transfer physics (from the basic coupled, to advanced coupled water and heat transfer, and further to the explicit consideration of airflow, termed BCD, ACD, and ACD-air, respectively). We then utilized the in situ observations and numerical experiments to investigate the effect of snowpack on soil moisture and heat transfer with the above-mentioned model complexities. Results indicated that the abrupt increase of surface albedo after precipitation events can be only reproduced by models considering snowpack. The BCD model tended to overestimate the land surface latent heat flux. Such overestimations were largely reduced by ACD and ACD-air models. Compared with the simulation considering snowpack, there is less surface latent heat flux from no-snow simulations due to the neglect of snow sublimation. With coupled models, the enhanced latent heat flux after precipitation events can be sourced from the surface ice sublimation, snow sublimation, and increased surface soil moisture, while the simple BCD model cannot provide the realistic partition of surface latent heat flux. The ACD model, with its physical consideration of vapor flow, thermal effect on water flow, and snowpack, can identify relative contributions of different components (e.g., thermal or isothermal liquid and vapor flow) to the total mass transfer fluxes. With the ACD-air model, the relative contribution of each component (mainly the isothermal liquid and vapor flows) to the mass transfer was significantly altered during the soil thawing period.

Evaluating the land-surface energy partitioning in ERA5

Climate reanalyses provide a plethora of global atmospheric and surface parameters in a consistent manner over multi-decadal timescales. Hence, they are widely used in many fields, and an in-depth evaluation of the different variables provided by reanalyses is a necessary means to provide feedback on the quality to their users and the operational centres producing these data sets, and to help guide their development. Recently, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) released the new state-of-the-art climate reanalysis ERA5, following up on its popular predecessor ERA-Interim. Different sets of variables from ERA5 were already evaluated in a handful of studies, but so far, the quality of land-surface energy partitioning has not been assessed. Here, we evaluate the surface energy partitioning over land in ERA5 and concentrate on the appraisal of the surface latent heat flux, surface sensible heat flux, and Bowen ratio against different reference data sets and using different modelling tools. Most of our analyses point towards a better quality of surface energy partitioning in ERA5 than in ERA-Interim, which may be attributed to a better representation of land-surface processes in ERA5 and certainly to the better quality of near-surface meteorological variables. One of the key shortcomings of the reanalyses identified in our study is the overestimation of the surface latent heat flux over land, which – although substantially lower than in ERA-Interim – still remains in ERA5. Overall, our results indicate the high quality of the surface turbulent fluxes from ERA5 and the general improvement upon ERA-Interim, thereby endorsing the efforts of ECMWF to improve their climate reanalysis and to provide useful data to many scientific and operational fields.

Multi-Parametric Climatological Analysis Reveals the Involvement of Fluids in the Preparation Phase of the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan and 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan Earthquakes

A multi-parametric approach was applied to climatological data before the Ms 8.0 2008 Wenchuan and Ms 7.0 2013 Lushan earthquakes (EQs) in order to detect anomalous changes associated to the preparing phase of those large seismic events. A climatological analysis for seismic Precursor Identification (CAPRI) algorithm was used for the detection of anomalies in the time series of four parameters (aerosol optical depth, AOD; skin temperature, SKT; surface latent heat flux, SLHF and total column water vapour, TCWV). Our results show a chain of processes occurred within two months before the EQs: AOD anomalous response is the earliest, followed by SKT, TCWV and SLHF in the EQs. A close spatial relation between the seismogenic Longmenshan fault (LMSF) zone and the extent of the detected anomalies indicates that some changes occurred within the faults before the EQs. The similarity of time sequence of the anomalies between the four parameters may be related to the same process: we interpret the observed anomalies as the consequence of the upraising of gases from a fluid-rich middle/upper crust along pre-existing seismogenic faults, and of their release into the atmosphere. Our multi-parametric analytical approach is able to capture phenomena related to the preparation phase of strong EQs.

Impacts of Wildfire Aerosols on Global Energy Budget and Climate: The Role of Climate Feedbacks

Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, the Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasis on the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be −0.78 ± 0.29 W m−2, which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci; −0.70 ± 0.20 W m−2). The associated global annual-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ∆T is −0.64 ± 0.16 K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to reamplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ∆T) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ∆T) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N) but increases in the Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal forest fire aerosol indirect effects, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.

On the Influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the Development of Extratropical Cyclones

<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The sea surface temperature (SST) distribution can modulate the development of extratropical cyclones through sensible and latent heat fluxes. However, the direct and indirect effects of these surface fluxes, and thus the SST, are still not well understood. This study tackles this problem using idealised channel simulations of moist baroclinic development under the influence of surface fluxes. The model is initialised with a zonal wind field resembling the midlatitude jet and a different SST distribution for each experiment, where both the strength and position of the SST gradient are varied.</span></p> <p class="p1"><span class="s1">The surface latent heat flux plays a key role in enhancing the moist baroclinic development, while the sensible heat fluxes play a minor and dampening role. The additional moisture provided by the latent heat fluxes originates from about 1000 km ahead of the cyclone a day prior to the time of the most rapid deepening. When the SST in this region is higher than 15 degrees Celsius, the additional latent heat is conducive to explosive cyclone development. A high absolute SST with a weak SST gradient, however, can lead to a delay of the deepening stage, because of unorganised convection at early stages. In addition, the cyclone can maintain its intensity for a longer period with an SST above 20 degrees Celsius, because there is a continuous and extensive moisture supply from the surface. The cyclone in this case has characteristics of a hybrid cyclone, where the latent heat release near the cyclone’s centre plays a major role in the development.</span></p>

Impacts of wildfire aerosols on global energy budget and climate: The role of climate feedbacks

<p>Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasizing the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be -0.78±0.29 W m<sup>-2</sup>, which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol-cloud interactions (REaci, -0.70±0.20 W m<sup>-2</sup>). The associated global-annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) change (∆T) is -0.64±0.16K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to re-amplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ∆T) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ∆T) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N), but increases in Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal-forest fire aerosol indirect effect, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.</p>