scholarly journals Predicting the Nonlinear Response of PM2.5 and Ozone to Precursor Emission Changes with a Response Surface Model

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1044
Author(s):  
James T. Kelly ◽  
Carey Jang ◽  
Yun Zhu ◽  
Shicheng Long ◽  
Jia Xing ◽  
...  

Reducing PM2.5 and ozone concentrations is important to protect human health and the environment. Chemical transport models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, are valuable tools for exploring policy options for improving air quality but are computationally expensive. Here, we statistically fit an efficient polynomial function in a response surface model (pf-RSM) to CMAQ simulations over the eastern U.S. for January and July 2016. The pf-RSM predictions were evaluated using out-of-sample CMAQ simulations and used to examine the nonlinear response of air quality to emission changes. Predictions of the pf-RSM are in good agreement with the out-of-sample CMAQ simulations, with some exceptions for cases with anthropogenic emission reductions approaching 100%. NOx emission reductions were more effective for reducing PM2.5 and ozone concentrations than SO2, NH3, or traditional VOC emission reductions. NH3 emission reductions effectively reduced nitrate concentrations in January but increased secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in July. More work is needed on SOA formation under conditions of low NH3 emissions to verify the responses of SOA to NH3 emission changes predicted here. Overall, the pf-RSM performs well in the eastern U.S., but next-generation RSMs based on deep learning may be needed to meet the computational requirements of typical regulatory applications.

2013 ◽  
Vol 77 ◽  
pp. 445-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akshay Ashok ◽  
In Hwan Lee ◽  
Saravanan Arunachalam ◽  
Ian A. Waitz ◽  
Steve H.L. Yim ◽  
...  

2009 ◽  
Vol 419-420 ◽  
pp. 89-92
Author(s):  
Zhuo Yi Yang ◽  
Yong Jie Pang ◽  
Zai Bai Qin

Cylinder shell stiffened by rings is used commonly in submersibles, and structure strength should be verified in the initial design stage considering the thickness of the shell, the number of rings, the shape of ring section and so on. Based on the statistical techniques, a strategy for optimization design of pressure hull is proposed in this paper. Its central idea is that: firstly the design variables are chosen by referring criterion for structure strength, then the samples for analysis are created in the design space; secondly finite element models corresponding to the samples are built and analyzed; thirdly the approximations of these analysis are constructed using these samples and responses obtained by finite element model; finally optimization design result is obtained using response surface model. The result shows that this method that can improve the efficiency and achieve optimal intention has valuable reference information for engineering application.


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