scholarly journals Variation in Extreme Temperature and Its Instability in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Hongju Chen ◽  
Jianping Yang ◽  
Yongjian Ding ◽  
Chunping Tan ◽  
Qingshan He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Instability Region ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Temperature Instability

In this study, the instability of extreme temperatures is defined as the degree of perturbation of the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme temperatures, which is to show the uncertainty of the intensity and occurrence of extreme temperatures in China. Based on identifying the extreme temperatures and by analyzing their variability, we refer to the entropy value in the entropy weight method to study the instability of extreme temperatures. The results show that TXx (annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature) and TNn (annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature) in China increased at 0.18 °C/10 year and 0.52 °C/10 year, respectively, from 1966 to 2015. The interannual data of TXx’ occurrence (CTXx) and TNn’ occurrence (CTNn), which are used to identify the timing of extreme temperatures, advance at 0.538 d/10 year and 1.02 d/10 year, respectively. In summary, extreme low-temperature changes are more sensitive to global warming. The results of extreme temperature instability show that the relative instability region of TXx is located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and the relative instability region of TNn is concentrated in the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Langtang River source area and parts of Tibet. The relative instability region of CTXx instability is distributed between 105° E and 120° E south of the 30° N latitude line, while the distribution of CTNn instability region is more scattered; the TXx’s instability intensity is higher than TNn’s, and CTXx’s instability intensity is higher than CTNn’s. We further investigate the factors affecting extreme climate instability. We also find that the increase in mean temperature and the change in the intensity of the El Niño phenomenon has significant effects on extreme temperature instability.

scholarly journals Changes of Extreme Temperature and Its Influencing Factors in Shiyang River Basin, Northwest China

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1171
Author(s):  
Junju Zhou ◽  
Jumei Huang ◽  
Xi Zhao ◽  
Li Lei ◽  
Wei Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
Shiyang River Basin

The increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events around the world has led to the frequent occurrence of global disasters, which have had serious impacts on the society, economic and ecological environment, especially fragile arid areas. Based on the daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature data of four meteorological stations in Shiyang River Basin (SRB) from 1960 to 2015, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of extreme temperature indices were analyzed by means of univariate linear regression analysis, Mann–Kendall test and correlation analysis. The results showed that the extreme temperatures warming indices and the minimum of daily maximum temperature (TXn) and the minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn) of cold indices showed an increasing trend from 1960 to 2016, especially since the 1990s, where the growth rate was fast and the response to global warming was sensitive. Except TXn and TNn, other cold indices showed a decreasing trend, especially Diurnal temperature (DTR) range, which decreased rapidly, indicating that the increasing speed of daily min-temperature were greater than of daily max-temperature in SRB. In space, the change tendency rate of the warm index basically showed an obvious altitude gradient effect that decreased with the altitude, which was consistent with Frost day (FD0) and Cool nights (TN10p) in the cold index, while Ice days (ID0) and Cool days (TX10p) are opposite. The mutation of the cold indices occurred earlier than the warm indices, illustrating that the cold indices in SRB were more sensitive to global warming. The change in extreme temperatures that would have a significant impact on the vegetation and glacier permafrost in the basin was the result of the combined function of different atmospheric circulation systems, which included the Arctic polar vortex, Western Pacific subtropical high and Qinghai-tibet Plateau circulation.

scholarly journals Geoengineering: Impact of Marine Cloud Brightening Control on the Extreme Temperature Change over East Asia

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1345
Author(s):  
Do-Hyun Kim ◽  
Ho-Jeong Shin ◽  
Il-Ung Chung
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Extreme Temperatures

We investigated the effect of artificial marine cloud brightening on extreme temperatures over East Asia. We used simulation data from five global climate models which have conducted the GeoMIP G4cdnc experiment. G4cdnc was designed to simulate an increase in the cloud droplet number concentration of the global marine lower clouds by 50% under the greenhouse gas forcing of the RCP4.5 scenario. G4cdnc decreased the net radiative forcing in the top of the atmosphere more over the ocean, alleviating the rise in mean temperature under RCP4.5 forcing. For extreme temperatures, G4cdnc reduced both the monthly minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn) and monthly maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx). The response of TNn was higher than that of TXx, especially in the winter, over the Sea of Okhotsk and the interior of the continent. This spatial heterogeneity and seasonality of the response were associated with sea ice–albedo and snow–albedo feedbacks. We also calculated the efficacy of warming mitigation as a measure of the relative effect of geoengineering. The efficacy for TXx was higher than that for TNn, opposite to the absolute effect. After the termination of geoengineering, both TNn and TXx tended to rapidly revert to their trend under the RCP4.5 forcing.

scholarly journals Temperature Change and Its Elevation Dependency in the Source Region of the Yangtze River and Yellow River

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chongyi E ◽  
Hongchang Hu ◽  
Hong Xie ◽  
Yongjuan Sun
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Extreme Minimum Temperature ◽  
The Mean

The study of temperature change and its elevation dependency in the source region of the Yangtze River and Yellow River have been insufficient owing to the lack of adequate observation stations and long-term climatic data. In this study five temperature indices of 32 stations from 1961 to 2007 in and near the source region are used. The 32 stations all have experienced significant warming; the warming amplitudes are higher than the mean warming amplitude of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. The warming amplitudes and the numbers of stations showing significant warming trends in mean minimum temperature and extreme minimum temperature are higher than that of the mean maximum temperature and extreme maximum temperature. The elevation dependency of climatic warming and the amount of significant warming stations are not obvious; the influence of human activity and urbanization may be higher. The warming amplitudes of 26 stations above 3000 m tend to be uniform, and there is no significant law at 6 stations below 3000 m. On the contrary, the ratio of stations showing significant warming in minimum temperature above 4000 m is far less than that of the stations below 4000 m.

Indices for daily temperature and precipitation based on quality controlled and homogenized data in Madagascar

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luc Yannick Andréas Randriamarolaza ◽  
Enric Aguilar ◽  
Oleg Skrynyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Missing Data ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Low Density ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>Madagascar is an Island in Western Indian Ocean Region. It is mainly exposed to the easterly trade winds and has a rugged topography, which promote different local climates and biodiversity. Climate change inflicts a challenge on Madagascar socio-economic activities. However, Madagascar has low density station and sparse networks on observational weather stations to detect changes in climate. On average, one station covers more than 20 000 km<sup>2</sup> and closer neighbor stations are less correlated. Previous studies have demonstrated the changes on Madagascar climate, but this paper contributes and enhances the approach to assess the quality control and homogeneity of Madagascar daily climate data before developing climate indices over 1950 – 2018 on 28 synoptic stations. Daily climate data of minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation are exploited.</p><p>Firstly, the quality of daily climate data is controlled by INQC developed and maintained by Center for Climate Change (C3) of Rovira i Virgili University, Spain. It ascertains and improves error detections by using six flag categories. Most errors detected are due to digitalization and measurement.</p><p>Secondly, daily quality controlled data are homogenized by using CLIMATOL. It uses relative homogenization methods, chooses candidate reference series automatically and infills the missing data in the original data. It has ability to manage low density stations and low inter-station correlations and is tolerable for missing data. Monthly break points are detected by CLIMATOL and used to split daily climate data to be homogenized.</p><p>Finally, climate indices are calculated by using CLIMIND package which is developed by INDECIS<sup>*</sup> project. Compared to previous works done, data period is updated to 10 years before and after and 15 new climate indices mostly related to extremes are computed. On temperature, significant increasing and decreasing decade trends of day-to-day and extreme temperature ranges are important in western and eastern areas respectively. On average decade trends of temperature extremes, significant increasing of daily minimum temperature is greater than daily maximum temperature. Many stations indicate significant decreasing in very cold nights than significant increasing in very warm days. Their trends are almost 1 day per decade over 1950 – 2018. Warming is mainly felt during nighttime and daytime in Oriental and Occidental parts respectively. In contrast, central uplands are warming all the time but tropical nights do not appear yet. On rainfall, no major significant findings are found but intense precipitation might be possible at central uplands due to shortening of longest wet period and occurrence of heavy precipitation. However, no influence detected on total precipitation which is still decreasing over 1950 - 2018. Future works focus on merging of relative homogenization methodologies to ameliorate the results.</p><p>-------------------</p><p>*INDECIS is a part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462).</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of Historical CMIP6 Model Simulations and Future Projections of Temperature Over the Pan-Third Pole Region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuewei Fan ◽  
Qingyun Duan ◽  
Chenwei Shen ◽  
Yi Wu ◽  
Chang Xing
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Extreme Temperatures

Abstract The Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing spatial patterns and temporal variations observed over the PTP region for mean and extreme temperatures. In addition, projected changes in temperatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) are also reported. Four indices were used to characterize changes in temperature extremes: the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and indices for the percentage of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Results indicate that most CMIP6 models generally capture the characteristics of the observed mean and extreme temperatures over the PTP region, but there still are slight cold biases in the Tibetan Plateau. Future changes of mean and extreme temperatures demonstrate that a strong increase will occur for the entire PTP region during the twenty-first century under all four SSP scenarios. Between 2015 and 2099, ensemble area-averaged annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.24°C/100 year, 3.28°C/100 year, 5.57°C/100 year, and 7.40°C/100 year for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. For TXx and TNn, the most intense warming is projected in Central Asia. The greatest number of projected TX90p and TN90p will occur in the Tibetan Plateau and Southeast Asia subregions, respectively.

scholarly journals Historical Variability And Future Changes In Seasonal Extreme Temperature Over Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azar Zarrin ◽  
Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari ◽  
Samira Hassani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Taylor Diagram ◽  
Temperature Indices

Abstract The extreme temperature indices (ETI) are an important indicator of climate change, the detection of their changes over the next years can play an important role in the Climate Action Plan (CAP). In this study, four temperature indices (Mean of daily minimum temperature (TN), Mean of daily maximum temperature (TX), Cold-spell duration index (CSDI), and Warm-spell duration index (WSDI)) were defined by ETCCDI and two new indices of the Maximum number of consecutive frost days (CFD) and the Maximum number of consecutive summer days (CSU) were calculated to examine ETIs in Iran under climate change conditions. We used minimum and maximum daily temperature of five General circulation models (GCMs) including HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M from the set of CMIP5 Bias-Correction models. We investigated Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 – during the historical (1965-2005) and future (2021-2060 and 2061-2100) periods. The performance of each model was evaluated using the Taylor diagram on a seasonal scale. Among models, GFDL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES models showed the highest, and NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR models showed the lowest performance in Iran. Then an ensemble model was generated using Independence Weighted Mean (IWM) method. The results of multi-model ensembles (MME) showed a higher performance compared to individual CMIP5 models in all seasons. Also, the uncertainty value was significantly reduced, and the correlation value of the MME model reached 0.95 in all seasons. Additionally, it is found that WSDI and CSU indices showed positive anomalies in future periods and CSDI and CFD showed negative anomalies throughout Iran. Also, at the end of the 21st century, no cold spells are projected in almost every part of Iran. The CSU index showed that Iran's summer days are increasing sharply, according to the results of the RCP8.5 scenario in spring (MAM) and autumn (SON), the CSU will increase by 18.79 and 20.51 days, respectively at the end of the 21st century. It is projected that in the future, the spring and autumn seasons will be shorter and, summers, will be much longer than before.

scholarly journals Surface Circulation Types and Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in Southern La Plata Basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (11) ◽  
pp. 2450-2459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Clorinda Penalba ◽  
María Laura Bettolli ◽  
Pablo Andrés Krieger
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
La Plata ◽  
Circulation Types ◽  
La Plata Basin ◽  
Surface Circulation

AbstractLa Plata basin is one of the most important agricultural and hydropower-producing regions in the world. Extreme climate events such as cold and heat waves and frost events have a significant socioeconomic impact. This work analyzes the influence of the surface circulation in southern South America on daily maximum temperature TMAX and daily minimum temperature TMIN in southern La Plata basin. A Z test for the comparison of mean values and a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for the comparison of distributions of TMAX and TMIN associated with each circulation pattern were performed. Specific daily surface circulation types are found to contribute to TMAX and TMIN anomalies and to have a predominant occurrence in the development of the extreme temperature events in the region. The TMAX spatial response to the regional low-level circulation is more homogenous and extended than is the response of TMIN.

scholarly journals Trends in extreme temperature and precipitation in Muscat, Oman

2014 ◽  
Vol 364 ◽  
pp. 57-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. N. Gunawardhana ◽  
G. A. Al-Rawas
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract. Changes in frequency and intensity of weather events often result in more frequent and intensive disasters such as flash floods and persistent droughts. In Oman, changes in precipitation and temperature have already been detected, although a comprehensive analysis to determine long-term trends is yet to be conducted. We analysed daily precipitation and temperature records in Muscat, the capital city of Oman, mainly focusing on extremes. A set of climate indices, defined in the RClimDex software package, were derived from the longest available daily series (precipitation over the period 1977–2011 and temperature over the period 1986–2011). Results showed significant changes in temperature extremes associated with cooling. Annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TX), on average, decreased by 1°C (0.42°C/10 year). Similarly, the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TN) decreased by 1.5°C (0.61°C/10 year), which, on average, cooled at a faster rate than the maximum temperature. Consequently, the annual count of days when TX > 45°C (98th percentile) decreased from 8 to 3, by 5 days. Similarly, the annual count of days when TN < 15°C (2nd percentile) increased from 5 to 15, by 10 days. Annual total precipitation averaged over the period 1977–2011 is 81 mm, which shows a tendency toward wetter conditions with a 6 mm/10 year rate. There is also a significant tendency for stronger precipitation extremes according to many indices. The contribution from very wet days to the annual precipitation totals steadily increases with significance at 75% level. When The General Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution is fitted to annual maximum 1-day precipitation, the return level of a 10-year return period in 1995–2011 was estimated to be 95 mm. This return level in the recent decade is about 70% higher than the return level for the period of 1977–1994. These results indicate that the long-term wetting signal apparent in total precipitation can be attributed largely to the increases in extreme precipitation in recent decades.

scholarly journals Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuewei Fan ◽  
Qingyun Duan ◽  
Chenwei Shen ◽  
Yi Wu ◽  
Chang Xing
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Extreme Temperatures

AbstractThe Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing spatial patterns and temporal variations observed over the PTP region for mean and extreme temperatures. In addition, projected changes in temperatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) are also reported. Four indices were used to characterize changes in temperature extremes: the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and indices for the percentage of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Results indicate that most CMIP6 models generally capture the characteristics of the observed mean and extreme temperatures over the PTP region, but there still are slight cold biases in the Tibetan Plateau. Future changes of mean and extreme temperatures demonstrate that a strong increase will occur for the entire PTP region during the twenty-first century under all four SSP scenarios. Between 2015 and 2099, ensemble area-averaged annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.24 °C/100 year, 3.28 °C/100 year, 5.57 °C/100 year, and 7.40 °C/100 year for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. For TXx and TNn, the most intense warming is projected in Central Asia. The greatest number of projected TX90p and TN90p will occur in the Southeast Asia and Tibetan Plateau, respectively.

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