scholarly journals Solar Irradiance and Temperature Variability and Projected Trends Analysis in Burundi

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Marc Niyongendako ◽  
Célestin Manirakiza
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Variability Analysis ◽  
The Future

This paper assessed the variability and projected trends of solar irradiance and temperature in the East of Burundi. Observed temperature from meteorological stations and the MERRA-2 data set provided by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center are used over the historical period 1976–2005. In addition, solar irradiance data provided by SoDa database were considered. Furthermore, projection data from eight Regional Climate Models were used over the periods 2026–2045 and 2066–2085. The variability analysis was performed using a standardized index. Projected trends and changes in the future climate were respectively detected through Mann-Kendall and t-tests. The findings over the historical period revealed increase temperature and decrease in solar irradiance over the last decades of the 20th century. At a monthly scale, the variability analysis showed that excesses in solar irradiance coincide with the dry season, which led to the conclusion that it may be a period of high production for solar energy. In the future climate, upward trends in temperature are expected over the two future periods, while no significant trends are forecasted in solar irradiance over the entire studied region. However, slight decreases and significant changes in solar irradiance have been detected over all regions.

Impact of aerosols on the future Euro-Mediterranean climate: results from the CORDEX FPS-Aerosol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Nabat ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Lola Corre ◽  
Eleni Katragkou ◽  
Shuping Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Climate ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
The Future

<p>The Euro-Mediterranean region is subject to numerous and various aerosol loads, which interact with radiation, clouds and atmospheric dynamics, with ensuing impact on regional climate. However up to now, aerosol variations are hardly taken into account in most regional climate simulations, although anthropogenic emissions have been dramatically reduced in Europe since the 1980s. Moreover, inconsistencies between regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving global model (GCM) have recently been identified in terms of future radiation and temperature evolution, which could be related to the differences in aerosol forcing. <br>The present study aims at assessing the role of aerosols in the future evolution of the Euro-Mediterranean climate, using a specific multi-model protocol carried out in the Flagship Pilot Study "Aerosol" of the CORDEX program. This protocol relies on three simulations for each RCM: a historical run (1971-2000) and two future RCP8.5 simulations (2021-2050), a first one with evolving aerosols, and a second one with the same aerosols as in the historical period. Six modeling groups have taken part in this protocol, providing nine triplets of simulations. The analysis of these simulations will be presented here. First results show that the future evolution of aerosols has a significant impact on the evolution of surface radiation and surface temperature. In addition RCM runs taking into account the evolution of aerosols are simulating climate change signal closer to the one of their driving GCM than those with constant aerosols.</p>

Analysis of EURO-CORDEX sub-daily rainfall simulations and derived event characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola Nanni ◽  
David J. Peres ◽  
Rosaria E. Musumeci ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
The Future

<p>Climate change is a phenomenon that is claimed to be responsible for a significant alteration of the precipitation regime in different regions worldwide and for the induced potential changes on related hydrological hazards. In particular, some consensus has raised about the fact that climate changes can induce a shift to shorter but more intense rainfall events, causing an intensification of urban and flash flooding hazards.  Regional climate models (RCMs) are a useful tool for trying to predict the impacts of climate change on hydrological events, although their application may lead to significant differences when different models are adopted. For this reason, it is of key importance to ascertain the quality of regional climate models (RCMs), especially with reference to their ability to reproduce the main climatological regimes with respect to an historical period. To this end, several studies have focused on the analysis of annual or monthly data, while few studies do exist that analyze the sub-daily data that are made available by the regional climate projection initiatives. In this study, with reference to specific locations in eastern Sicily (Italy), we first evaluate historical simulations of precipitation data from selected RCMs belonging to the Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the Euro-Mediterranean area) with high temporal resolution (three-hourly), in order to understand how they compare to fine-resolution observations. In particular, we investigate the ability to reproduce rainfall event characteristics, as well as annual maxima precipitation at different durations. With reference to rainfall event characteristics, we specifically focus on duration, intensity, and inter-arrival time between events. Annual maxima are analyzed at sub-daily durations. We then analyze the future simulations according to different Representative concentration scenarios. The proposed analysis highlights the differences between the different RCMs, supporting the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing the impacts in the considered locations, and to understand what trends for intense precipitation are to be expected in the future.</p>

scholarly journals CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON PROJECTED PV POWER POTENTIAL UNDER RCP 8.5 SCENARIO IN BURUNDI

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Marc Niyongendako ◽  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Célestin Manirakiza ◽  
Serge Dimitri Yikwé Buri Bazyomo ◽  
Batablinlè Lamboni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Potential Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Near Future

This work focuses on analysis of climate change effects on Photovoltaic (PV) power output in the Eastern and Northeastern of Burundi. Monthly temperature data from meteorological stations and solar irradiance data provided by SoDa database were considered as observed dataset for the historical period 1981-2010. Projection climate data from eight Regional Climate Models of CORDEX for Africa were used over the near future period 2021-2050. The change in temperature and solar irradiance were analyzed and the effects of these climate changes were assessed to show their impacts on PV power potential. The results indicated increasing trends and change in temperature for about 2°C over this near future period. The solar irradiance change was revealed negative with a high interannual variation for all regions and the mean decrease ranges between 2 and 4 W/m². The findings revealed also a negative change in PV power potential close to zero for all regions with a high change occurred in NLL. Indeed, the contribution of each parameter to PV power potential change was negative all over regions. However, the projected climate change does not predict a huge PV power potential change by 2050. Therefore, Burundi may invest in producing electricity energy from PV systems.

scholarly journals Changes in the Baiu Frontal Activity in the Future Climate Simulated by Super-High-Resolution Global and Cloud-Resolving Regional Climate Models

2006 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuaki YASUNAGA ◽  
Chiashi MUROI ◽  
Teruyuki KATO ◽  
Masanori YOSHIZAKI ◽  
Kazuo KURIHARA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Frontal Activity

scholarly journals Wind Power Potential in Near Future Climate Scenarios: The Case for Burundi (East Africa)

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Manirakiza Célestin ◽  
Lamboni Batablinlé
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future

This paper assessed projected changes of wind power potential in near future climate scenarios over four sites from two contrasting regions of Burundi. Observed and MERRA-2 data sets were considered for the historical period 1981-2010, and a computed Multi-model ensemble for future projections data of eight Regional Climate Models under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 over the period 2011-2040 was used. Regional Climate Models were downscaled at local climate using Empirical Statistical Downscaling method. Mann-Kendall’s test was used for trend analysis over the historical period, while future changes in wind power density (WPD) quartiles were computed for each climate scenario by 2040. The findings revealed an increase in wind power potential all over the area studied with higher values during summer time. Indeed, over the period 2011-2040, the lowest WPD change is projected at Northern highlands (NHL) under RCP 4.5 with 27.03 W.m-2, while the highest WPD change of 46.34 W.m-2 is forecasted under RCP 8.5 at Southern Imbo plain (SIP). The month of August and September are expected to have higher WPD change in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively while January is projected to have the lowest WPD. Places near by the Lake Tanganyika are the most favorable areas for wind power generation.

scholarly journals Future Crop Yield Projections Using a Multi-model Set of Regional Climate Models and a Plausible Adaptation Practice in the Southeast United States

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1300
Author(s):  
D. W. Shin ◽  
Steven Cocke ◽  
Guillermo A. Baigorria ◽  
Consuelo C. Romero ◽  
Baek-Min Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Southeast United States ◽  
The Future

Since maize, peanut, and cotton are economically valuable crops in the southeast United States, their yield amount changes in a future climate are attention-grabbing statistics demanded by associated stakeholders and policymakers. The Crop System Modeling—Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (CSM-DSSAT) models of maize, peanut, and cotton are, respectively, driven by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Phase II regional climate models to estimate current (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) crop yield amounts. In particular, the future weather/climate data are based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario. The NARCCAP realizations show on average that there will be large temperature increases (~2.7 °C) and minor rainfall decreases (~−0.10 mm/day) with pattern shifts in the southeast United States. With these future climate projections, the overall future crop yield amounts appear to be reduced under rainfed conditions. A better estimate of future crop yield amounts might be achievable by utilizing the so-called weighted ensemble method. It is proposed that the reduced crop yield amounts in the future could be mitigated by altering the currently adopted local planting dates without any irrigation support.

scholarly journals Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (67) ◽  
pp. 339-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helene Guis ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Carlos Calvete ◽  
Andrew P. Morse ◽  
Annelise Tran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
The North ◽  
Recent Emergence ◽  
The Future

Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases.

scholarly journals Changes in the European Precipitation Climatologies as Derived by an Ensemble of Regional Models

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 2540-2557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco J. Tapiador ◽  
Enrique Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climatic Research Unit ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
The Future

Abstract This paper analyzes the changes in the precipitation climatologies of Europe for the periods 1960–90 and 2070–2100 using a heterogeneous set of regional climate models (RCMs). The authors used the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) database to define a precipitation climatology for current climate conditions (1960–90), then compare the estimates with the RCMs’ simulations for the same period using spectral analysis. After the authors evaluated the performance of the models compared with validation data for current climate, they calculated the future climate spectra (2070–2100). Changes in the future climate have been evaluated in terms of differences in the phase and amplitude of the annual cycle with respect to present conditions. The results show that models provide consistent results and that under the A2 scenario (increased greenhouse gases conditions) precipitation climatologies in Europe are expected to suffer noticeable changes, the most important being a strengthening of the annual cycle in most of the Atlantic coastal areas of the continent. While total amounts of rainfall might undergo little change, the consequences of changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation will strongly affect both ecosystems and human activities. Differences were also found in the probability distribution function (pdf) of precipitation, indicating an overall increase in the frequency of precipitation-related hazards in Europe.

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Model Emulator based on Deep Learning: Concept and First Evaluation of a Novel Hybrid Downscaling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Doury ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Sébastien Gadat ◽  
Aurélien Ribes ◽  
Lola Corre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Way

Abstract Providing reliable information on climate change at local scale remains a challenge of first importance for impact studies and policymakers. Here, we propose a novel hybrid downscaling method combining the strengths of both empirical statistical downscaling methods and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The aim of this tool is to enlarge the size of high-resolution RCM simulation ensembles at low cost.We build a statistical RCM-emulator by estimating the downscaling function included in the RCM. This framework allows us to learn the relationship between large-scale predictors and a local surface variable of interest over the RCM domain in present and future climate. Furthermore, the emulator relies on a neural network architecture, which grants computational efficiency. The RCM-emulator developed in this study is trained to produce daily maps of the near-surface temperature at the RCM resolution (12km). The emulator demonstrates an excellent ability to reproduce the complex spatial structure and daily variability simulated by the RCM and in particular the way the RCM refines locally the low-resolution climate patterns. Training in future climate appears to be a key feature of our emulator. Moreover, there is a huge computational benefit in running the emulator rather than the RCM, since training the emulator takes about 2 hours on GPU, and the prediction is nearly instantaneous. However, further work is needed to improve the way the RCM-emulator reproduces some of the temperature extremes, the intensity of climate change, and to extend the proposed methodology to different regions, GCMs, RCMs, and variables of interest.

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