scholarly journals CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON PROJECTED PV POWER POTENTIAL UNDER RCP 8.5 SCENARIO IN BURUNDI

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Marc Niyongendako ◽  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Célestin Manirakiza ◽  
Serge Dimitri Yikwé Buri Bazyomo ◽  
Batablinlè Lamboni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Potential Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Near Future

This work focuses on analysis of climate change effects on Photovoltaic (PV) power output in the Eastern and Northeastern of Burundi. Monthly temperature data from meteorological stations and solar irradiance data provided by SoDa database were considered as observed dataset for the historical period 1981-2010. Projection climate data from eight Regional Climate Models of CORDEX for Africa were used over the near future period 2021-2050. The change in temperature and solar irradiance were analyzed and the effects of these climate changes were assessed to show their impacts on PV power potential. The results indicated increasing trends and change in temperature for about 2°C over this near future period. The solar irradiance change was revealed negative with a high interannual variation for all regions and the mean decrease ranges between 2 and 4 W/m². The findings revealed also a negative change in PV power potential close to zero for all regions with a high change occurred in NLL. Indeed, the contribution of each parameter to PV power potential change was negative all over regions. However, the projected climate change does not predict a huge PV power potential change by 2050. Therefore, Burundi may invest in producing electricity energy from PV systems.

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

Future humidity extremes in an urban-rural context - using regional climate model projections down to convection permitting scales for Berlin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Urban Rural

<p>Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. A transition towards sustainable and climate-resilient urban areas is relying heavily on useful, evidence-based climate information on urban scales. However, current climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are either not scale compliant for cities, or do not cover essential parameters and/or urban-rural interactions under climate change conditions. Furthermore, although e.g. the urban heat island may be better understood, other phenomena, such as moisture change, are little researched. Our research shows the potential of regional climate models, within the EURO-CORDEX framework, to provide climate projections and information on urban scales for 11km and 3km grid size. The city of Berlin is taken as a case-study. The results on the 11km spatial scale show that the regional climate models simulate a distinct difference between Berlin and its surroundings for temperature and humidity related variables. There is an increase in urban dry island conditions in Berlin towards the end of the 21st century. To gain a more detailed understanding of climate change impacts, extreme weather conditions were investigated under a 2°C global warming and further downscaled to the 3km scale. This enables the exploration of differences of the meteorological processes between the 11km and 3km scales, and the implications for urban areas and its surroundings. The overall study shows the potential of regional climate models to provide climate change information on urban scales.</p>

scholarly journals Solar Irradiance and Temperature Variability and Projected Trends Analysis in Burundi

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Marc Niyongendako ◽  
Célestin Manirakiza
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Variability Analysis ◽  
The Future

This paper assessed the variability and projected trends of solar irradiance and temperature in the East of Burundi. Observed temperature from meteorological stations and the MERRA-2 data set provided by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center are used over the historical period 1976–2005. In addition, solar irradiance data provided by SoDa database were considered. Furthermore, projection data from eight Regional Climate Models were used over the periods 2026–2045 and 2066–2085. The variability analysis was performed using a standardized index. Projected trends and changes in the future climate were respectively detected through Mann-Kendall and t-tests. The findings over the historical period revealed increase temperature and decrease in solar irradiance over the last decades of the 20th century. At a monthly scale, the variability analysis showed that excesses in solar irradiance coincide with the dry season, which led to the conclusion that it may be a period of high production for solar energy. In the future climate, upward trends in temperature are expected over the two future periods, while no significant trends are forecasted in solar irradiance over the entire studied region. However, slight decreases and significant changes in solar irradiance have been detected over all regions.

scholarly journals Simulation performance of selected global and regional climate models for temperature and rainfall in some locations in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-418
Author(s):  
SHWETA PANJWANI ◽  
S. NARESH KUMAR ◽  
LAXMI AHUJA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Simulation Performance ◽  
Climate Change Assessment ◽  
Better Than

Global and regional climate models are reported to have inherent bias in simulating the observed climatology of a region. This bias of climate models is the major source of uncertainties in climate change impact assessments. Therefore, use of bias corrected simulated climate data is important. In this study, the bias corrected climate data for 30 years’ period (1976-2005) from selected common fourGCMs and RCMs for six Indian locations are compared with the respective observed data of India Meteorological Department. The analysis indicated that the RCMs performance is much better than GCMs after bias correction for minimum and maximum temperatures. Also, RCMs performance is better than GCMs in simulating extreme temperatures. However, the selected RCMs and GCMs are found to either over estimate or under estimate the rainfall despite bias correction and also overestimated the rainfall extremes for selected Indian locations. Based on the overall performance of four models for the six locations, it was found that the GFDL_ESM2M and NORESM1-M RCMs performed comparatively better than CSIRO and IPSL models. After bias correction, the RCMs could represent the observed climatology better than the GCMs. And these RCMs viz., GFDL_ESM2M and NORESM1-M can be usedindividually after bias correction in the climate change assessment studies for the selected regions.

Analysis of EURO-CORDEX sub-daily rainfall simulations and derived event characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola Nanni ◽  
David J. Peres ◽  
Rosaria E. Musumeci ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
The Future

<p>Climate change is a phenomenon that is claimed to be responsible for a significant alteration of the precipitation regime in different regions worldwide and for the induced potential changes on related hydrological hazards. In particular, some consensus has raised about the fact that climate changes can induce a shift to shorter but more intense rainfall events, causing an intensification of urban and flash flooding hazards.  Regional climate models (RCMs) are a useful tool for trying to predict the impacts of climate change on hydrological events, although their application may lead to significant differences when different models are adopted. For this reason, it is of key importance to ascertain the quality of regional climate models (RCMs), especially with reference to their ability to reproduce the main climatological regimes with respect to an historical period. To this end, several studies have focused on the analysis of annual or monthly data, while few studies do exist that analyze the sub-daily data that are made available by the regional climate projection initiatives. In this study, with reference to specific locations in eastern Sicily (Italy), we first evaluate historical simulations of precipitation data from selected RCMs belonging to the Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the Euro-Mediterranean area) with high temporal resolution (three-hourly), in order to understand how they compare to fine-resolution observations. In particular, we investigate the ability to reproduce rainfall event characteristics, as well as annual maxima precipitation at different durations. With reference to rainfall event characteristics, we specifically focus on duration, intensity, and inter-arrival time between events. Annual maxima are analyzed at sub-daily durations. We then analyze the future simulations according to different Representative concentration scenarios. The proposed analysis highlights the differences between the different RCMs, supporting the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing the impacts in the considered locations, and to understand what trends for intense precipitation are to be expected in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of potential hydrological climate change impacts in Kastoria basin (Western Macedonia, Greece) using EUROCORDEX regional climate models

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Northern Greece

<p>The Mediterranean region is expected to present reduced availability of water resources due to climate change. This study aims to assess the potential hydrological responses to climate change in the Kastoria basin (Western Macedonia, Northern Greece) for the period 2019-2078. Climate projections from eight regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX were bias-adjusted using the linear scaling method. The bias-adjusted climate data were used to force the FeFLOW hydro-logical model to predict the discharge of the Kastoria aquifer towards lake Orestiada along with the projected groundwater level distribution. Precipitation (temperature) shows a tendency to decrease (increase) mainly in late spring to early autumn while increase (decrease) in the other sea-sons. Moreover, results indicate a significant increase in temperature and a slight decrease in precipitation towards 2078, while the predicted groundwater level of Kastoria aquifer will reduce slightly. However, the future hydrological behavior of the basin indicates a substantial reduction by approximately 15% of total water yield towards the end of the century.</p>

Assessment of climate change impacts in a semi-arid watershed in Iran using regional climate models

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid R. Solaymani ◽  
A. K. Gosain
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Semi Arid

This paper aims to summarize in detail the results of the climate models under various scenarios by temporal and spatial analysis in the semi-arid Karkheh Basin (KB) in Iran, which is likely to experience water shortages. The PRECIS and REMO models, under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, have been chosen as regional climate models (RCMs). These regional climate models indicate an overall warming in future in KB under various scenarios. The increase in temperature in the dry months (June, July and August) is greater than the increase in the wet months (January, February, March and April). In order to perform climate change impact assessment on water resources, the Arc-SWAT 9.3 model was used in the study area. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model results have been obtained using present and future climate data. There is an overall reduction in the water yield (WYLD) over the whole of the KB. The deficit of WYLD is considerable over the months of April to September throughout KB due to the increase in average temperature and decrease in precipitation under various emission scenarios. Statistical properties in box-and-whisker plots have been used to gain further understanding relevant to uncertainty analysis in climate change impacts. Evaluation of uncertainty has shown the highest uncertain condition under B2.

scholarly journals Wind Power Potential in Near Future Climate Scenarios: The Case for Burundi (East Africa)

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Manirakiza Célestin ◽  
Lamboni Batablinlé
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future

This paper assessed projected changes of wind power potential in near future climate scenarios over four sites from two contrasting regions of Burundi. Observed and MERRA-2 data sets were considered for the historical period 1981-2010, and a computed Multi-model ensemble for future projections data of eight Regional Climate Models under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 over the period 2011-2040 was used. Regional Climate Models were downscaled at local climate using Empirical Statistical Downscaling method. Mann-Kendall’s test was used for trend analysis over the historical period, while future changes in wind power density (WPD) quartiles were computed for each climate scenario by 2040. The findings revealed an increase in wind power potential all over the area studied with higher values during summer time. Indeed, over the period 2011-2040, the lowest WPD change is projected at Northern highlands (NHL) under RCP 4.5 with 27.03 W.m-2, while the highest WPD change of 46.34 W.m-2 is forecasted under RCP 8.5 at Southern Imbo plain (SIP). The month of August and September are expected to have higher WPD change in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively while January is projected to have the lowest WPD. Places near by the Lake Tanganyika are the most favorable areas for wind power generation.

scholarly journals Water Budgets of Managed Forests in Northeast Germany under Climate Change—Results from a Model Study on Forest Monitoring Sites

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2403
Author(s):  
Daniel Ziche ◽  
Winfried Riek ◽  
Alexander Russ ◽  
Rainer Hentschel ◽  
Jan Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Forest Monitoring ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Time ◽  
Time Period

To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6.

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