Flood Risk Assessment under Climate Change: The Petite Nation River Watershed

In Canada, climate change is expected to increase the extreme precipitation events by magnitude and frequency, leading to more intense and frequent river flooding. In this study, we attempt to map the flood hazard and damage under projected climate scenarios (2050 and 2080). The study was performed in the two most populated municipalities of the Petite Nation River Watershed, located in southern Quebec (Canada). The methodology follows a modelling approach, in which climate projections are derived from the Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Quebec following two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These projections are used to predict future river flows. A frequency analysis was carried out with historical data of the peak flow (period 1969–2018) to derive different return periods (2, 20, and 100 years), which were then fed into the GARI tool (Gestion et Analyse du Risque d’Inondation). This tool is used to simulate flood hazard maps and to quantify future flood risk changes. Projected flood hazard (extent and depth) and damage maps were produced for the two municipalities under current and for future scenarios. The results indicate that the flood frequencies are expected to show a minor decrease in peak flows in the basin at the time horizons, 2050 and 2080. In addition, the depth and inundation areas will not significantly change for two time horizons, but instead show a minor decrease. Similarly, the projected flood damage changes in monetary losses are projected to decrease in the future. The results of this study allow one to identify present and future flood hazards and vulnerabilities, and should help decision-makers and the public to better understand the significance of climate change on flood risk in the Petite Nation River watershed.

Download Full-text

Assessment of Flood Hazard and Agriculture Damage Under Climate Change in the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal

International Journal of Environment ◽

10.3126/ije.v8i2.25508 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 55-69 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Badri Bhakta Shrestha

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Damage Assessment ◽

Growth Stage ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Flood Risk Management ◽

Flood Inundation ◽

Flood Hazards ◽

Bagmati River

Assessment of flood hazard and damage is a prerequisite for flood risk management in the river basins. The mitigation plans for flood risk management are mostly evaluated in quantified terms as it is important in decision making process. Therefore, analysis of flood hazards and quantitative assessment of potential flood damage is very essential for mitigating and managing flood risk. This study focused on assessment of flood hazard and quantitative agricultural damage in the Bagmati River basin including Lal Bakaiya River basin of Nepal under climate change conditions. Flood hazards were simulated using Rainfall Runoff Inundation (RRI) model. MRI-AGCM3.2S precipitation outputs of present and future climate scenarios were used to simulate flood hazards, flood inundation depth, and duration. Flood damage was assessed in the agricultural sector, focusing on flood damage to rice crops. The flood damage assessment was conducted by defining flood damage to rice crops as a function of flood depth, duration, and growth stage of rice plants and using depth-duration-damage function curves for each growth stage of rice plants. The hazard simulation and damage assessment were conducted for 50- and 100-year return period cases. The results show that flood inundation area and agricultural damage area may increase in the future by 41.09 % and 39.05 % in the case of 50-year flood, while 44.98 % and 40.76 % in the case of 100-year flood. The sensitivity to changes in flood extent area and damage with the intensity of return period was also analyzed.

Download Full-text

Forecasting of Future Flooding and Risk Assessment under CMIP6 Climate Projection in Neuse River, North Carolina

Forecasting ◽

10.3390/forecast2030018 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

pp. 323-345

Author(s):

Indira Pokhrel ◽

Ajay Kalra ◽

Md Mafuzur Rahaman ◽

Ranjeet Thakali

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Carolina ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Cumulative Distribution ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Flood Inundation ◽

Floodplain Management ◽

Essential Information ◽

Neuse River

Hydrological extremes associated with climate change are becoming an increasing concern all over the world. Frequent flooding, one of the extremes, needs to be analyzed while considering climate change to mitigate flood risk. This study forecast streamflow and evaluate risk of flooding in the Neuse River, North Carolina considering future climatic scenarios, and comparing them with an existing Federal Emergency Management Agency study. The cumulative distribution function transformation method was adopted for bias correction to reduce the uncertainty present in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) streamflow data. To calculate 100-year and 500-year flood discharges, the Generalized Extreme Value (L-Moment) was utilized on bias-corrected multimodel ensemble data with different climate projections. Out of all projections, shared socio-economic pathways (SSP5-8.5) exhibited the maximum design streamflow, which was routed through a hydraulic model, the Hydrological Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), to generate flood inundation and risk maps. The result indicates an increase in flood inundation extent compared to the existing study, depicting a higher flood hazard and risk in the future. This study highlights the importance of forecasting future flood risk and utilizing the projected climate data to obtain essential information to determine effective strategic plans for future floodplain management.

Download Full-text

Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-13-2301-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 2301-2318 ◽

Cited By ~ 41

Author(s):

A. Beckers ◽

B. Dewals ◽

S. Erpicum ◽

S. Dujardin ◽

S. Detrembleur ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Spatial Planning ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Current Trend ◽

Flood Damage ◽

River Meuse ◽

Walloon Region

Abstract. Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to €334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

Download Full-text

Raising risk preparedness by flood risk communication

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-15-1577-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (7) ◽

pp. 1577-1595 ◽

Cited By ~ 34

Author(s):

E. Maidl ◽

M. Buchecker

Keyword(s):

Risk Communication ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Information Needs ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Communication Strategy ◽

Special Focus ◽

Risk Awareness ◽

Local Authorities ◽

Risk Preparedness

Abstract. During the last decade, most European countries have produced hazard maps of natural hazards, but little is known about how to communicate these maps most efficiently to the public. In October 2011, Zurich's local authorities informed owners of buildings located in the urban flood hazard zone about potential flood damage, the probability of flood events and protection measures. The campaign was based on the assumptions that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens who are aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. This study is intended as a contribution to better understand the factors that influence flood risk preparedness, with a special focus on the effects of such a one-way risk communication strategy. We conducted a standardized mail survey of 1500 property owners in the hazard zones in Zurich (response rate main survey: 34 %). The questionnaire included items to measure respondents' risk awareness, risk preparedness, flood experience, information-seeking behaviour, knowledge about flood risk, evaluation of the information material, risk acceptance, attachment to the property and trust in local authorities. Data about the type of property and socio-demographic variables were also collected. Multivariate data analysis revealed that the average level of risk awareness and preparedness was low, but the results confirmed that the campaign had a statistically significant effect on the level of preparedness. The main influencing factors on the intention to prepare for a flood were the extent to which respondents evaluated the information material positively as well as their risk awareness. Respondents who had never taken any previous interest in floods were less likely to read the material. For future campaigns, we therefore recommend repeated communication that is tailored to the information needs of the target population.

Download Full-text

Ensemble Projections of Regional Climatic Changes over Ontario, Canada

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-15-0185.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 28 (18) ◽

pp. 7327-7346 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Xiuquan Wang ◽

Guohe Huang ◽

Jinliang Liu ◽

Zhong Li ◽

Shan Zhao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climatic Changes ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Local Climate ◽

Ensemble Simulations ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Data Portal

Abstract In this study, high-resolution climate projections over Ontario, Canada, are developed through an ensemble modeling approach to provide reliable and ready-to-use climate scenarios for assessing plausible effects of future climatic changes at local scales. The Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional modeling system is adopted to conduct ensemble simulations in a continuous run from 1950 to 2099, driven by the boundary conditions from a HadCM3-based perturbed physics ensemble. Simulations of temperature and precipitation for the baseline period are first compared to the observed values to validate the performance of the ensemble in capturing the current climatology over Ontario. Future projections for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s are then analyzed to help understand plausible changes in its local climate in response to global warming. The analysis indicates that there is likely to be an obvious warming trend with time over the entire province. The increase in average temperature is likely to be varying within [2.6, 2.7]°C in the 2030s, [4.0, 4.7]°C in the 2050s, and [5.9, 7.4]°C in the 2080s. Likewise, the annual total precipitation is projected to increase by [4.5, 7.1]% in the 2030s, [4.6, 10.2]% in the 2050s, and [3.2, 17.5]% in the 2080s. Furthermore, projections of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are developed to help understand the effects of global warming on extreme precipitation events. The results suggest that there is likely to be an overall increase in the intensity of rainfall storms. Finally, a data portal named Ontario Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP) is developed to ensure decision-makers and impact researchers have easy and intuitive access to the refined regional climate change scenarios.

Download Full-text

Distribution of Flood Risk Area in Bodri Watershed of Kendal Regency

Sriwijaya Journal of Environment ◽

10.22135/sje.2021.6.2.59-69 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 59-69

Author(s):

Husna Fauzia ◽

◽

Eka Cahyaningsih ◽

Hery Hariyanto ◽

Satya Nugraha ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Spatial Modeling ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Risk Level ◽

Flood Hazards ◽

Risk Area ◽

Flood Peak ◽

Risk Levels ◽

Central Java

Flooding is a catastrophic phenomenon that can occur due to various factors, such as uncontrolled landuse changes, climate change, and weather anomalies, and drainage infrastructure damage. The Bodri watershed in Kendal Regency is one of the watersheds in Central Java, which is categorized as critical based on Decree No.328/Menhut-II/2009. Some of the problems in the Bodri watershed include land use that is not suitable for its designation, flooding, erosion, and landslides. This study aims to conduct spatial modeling to create flood hazard maps and flood risk level maps in the Bodri watershed. The method used is hydrograph analysis, flood modeling, potential flood hazards, and flood risk levels. Analysis of the potential for flood hazards from the spatial modeling inundation map with the input of the flood peak return period of 2 years (Q2), 5 years (Q5), and 50 years (Q50). Vulnerability analysis based on land use maps of flood hazard areas. The distribution of flood-prone areas in the Bodri watershed is in Pidodo Kulon Village, Pidodo Wetan Village, and Bangunsari Village.

Download Full-text

Novel use of climate model data for deriving future flood risk underwriting and risk selection data – A Hong Kong Case Study

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15778 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rebecca Alexandre ◽

Iain Willis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Hong Kong ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Climate Model ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Flood Frequency ◽

Commercial Building ◽

Model Data ◽

Change Factors

The re/insurance, banking and mortgage sectors play an essential role in facilitating economic stability. As climate change-related financial risks increase, there has long been a need for tools that contribute to the global industry&#8217;s current and future flood risk resiliency. Recognising this gap, JBA Risk Management has pioneered use of climate model data for rapidly deriving future flood risk metrics to support risk-reflective pricing strategies and mortgage analysis for Hong Kong.JBA&#8217;s established method uses daily temporal resolution precipitation and surface air temperature Regional Climate Model (RCM) data from the Earth System Grid Federation&#8217;s CORDEX experiment. Historical and future period RCM data were processed for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.6, and time horizons 2046-2050 and 2070-2080 and used to develop fluvial and pluvial hydrological model change factors for Hong Kong. These change factors were applied to baseline fluvial and pluvial flood depths and extents, extracted from JBA&#8217;s high resolution 30m Hong Kong Flood Map. From these, potential changes in flood event frequency and severity for each RCP and time horizon combination were estimated.The unique flood frequency and severity profiles for each flood type were then analysed with customised vulnerability functions, linking water depth to expected damage over time for residential and commercial building risks. This resulted in quantitative fluvial and pluvial flood risk metrics for Hong Kong.Newly released, Hong Kong Climate Change Pricing Data is already in use by financial institutions. When combined with property total sum insured data, this dataset provides the annualised cost of flood damage for a range of future climate scenarios. For the first time, our industry has a tool to quantify baseline and future flood risk and set risk-reflective pricing for Hong Kong portfolios.JBA&#8217;s method is adaptable for global use and underwriting tools are already available for the UK and Australia with the aim of improving future financial flood risk mitigation and management. This presentation will outline the method, provide a comparison of baseline and climate change flood impacts for Hong Kong and discuss the wider implications for our scientific and financial industries.

Download Full-text

Assessing the susceptibility of schools to flood events in Iran

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-75291-3 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Saleh Yousefi ◽

Hamid Reza Pourghasemi ◽

Sayed Naeim Emami ◽

Omid Rahmati ◽

Shahla Tavangar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Flood Risk ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Rural Students ◽

Flood Hazards ◽

Analytic Hierarchy ◽

Flood Susceptibility ◽

Susceptibility Maps ◽

High Flood ◽

Analytic Hierarchy Process Method ◽

Very High

Abstract Catastrophic floods cause deaths, injuries, and property damages in communities around the world. The losses can be worse among those who are more vulnerable to exposure and this can be enhanced by communities’ vulnerabilities. People in undeveloped and developing countries, like Iran, are more vulnerable and may be more exposed to flood hazards. In this study we investigate the vulnerabilities of 1622 schools to flood hazard in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, Iran. We used four machine learning models to produce flood susceptibility maps. The analytic hierarchy process method was enhanced with distance from schools to create a school-focused flood-risk map. The results indicate that 492 rural schools and 147 urban schools are in very high-risk locations. Furthermore, 54% of rural students and 8% of urban students study schools in locations of very high flood risk. The situation should be examined very closely and mitigating actions are urgently needed.

Download Full-text

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli8120139 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 139

Author(s):

Manashi Paul ◽

Sijal Dangol ◽

Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽

Amy R. Sapkota ◽

Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Swat Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

River Watershed ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

Download Full-text

Analysis of potential flood damage on crops at global scale

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19533 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Antonio Annis ◽

Davide Danilo Chiarelli ◽

Fernando Nardi ◽

Maria Cristina Rulli

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Large Scale ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Strong Support ◽

Flood Damage ◽

Natural Ecosystems ◽

Remotely Sensed Data ◽

Regulated Rivers ◽

Cropland Area

Most of the food production connected to crops is located in fluvial corridors because of their suitable morphology and fertile soils. The knowledge and large scale quantification of the agricultural resources at flood risk has a crucial importance for improving urban and regional planning. Recent advances in satellite derived products related to land use, digital terrain and hydrologic variables can give a strong support on extensive analyses on cropland areas in floodplains and their interactions with natural ecosystems and human activities. In this work, we present a global assessment of cropland at flood risk in terms of extension, productivity and the related calories adopting the Global Cropland Area Database (GCAD), the Global Floodplain Dataset (GFPLAIN250m), the Global flood hazard maps (GFHM) in conjunction with continental remotely-sensed data representing free flowing (versus artificially regulated) rivers and urban density maps. Spatially distributed and aggregated results of the research allow to identify the most critical areas in terms of food security and floods, thus allowing to support intervention strategies for food security management at large scale and for different socio-economic contexts.

Download Full-text